In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections
World Cup Specials
Review of yesterday’s blog
Back in the groove! One selection, one winner – SEA OF HEARTBREAK. This was trainer Roger Charlton’s only runner of the day and he’s now had 3 winners from his last 5 runners over the past 5 days. When I posted up the blog at 8:36am the best price available was 100/30. I advised not to take less than 11/4, and you could still get that up to about 1:30pm. By the time the race started, SEA OF HEARTBREAK was 7/4, and the manner in which he won was described as “comfortably”. So, 2pts @ 100/30 is 6.66pts profit on the day.
Today’s Racing Selections
Wednesday brings afternoon flat meetings at Carlisle – where the feature is the £20,000 Carlisle Bell handicap - and Salisbury, and an evening meeting at Bath. The Carlisle Bell is one of the oldest horse-races going, dating back to its first running in 1599. This race is very competitive, being the richest class 4 handicap of the year. Cumani sends a runner – only his 2nd runner at the track in 5 years and his only runner today – and Kieran Fallon rides (this is his 1st ever visit to ride at Carlisle). There is only one course winner among the 17 entered for the race MOUNT HADLEY, and his trainer Geoff Butler is 3 wins from 7 runners here. He’s drawn 5, and although high numbers are favoured at Carlisle, the “Bell” has been won by those drawn low in recent years. The going will suit and MOUNT HADLEY has been running well of late, his best when 4th in a class 2 at Sandown with some decent handicappers behind him (Swift Chap and Mujood run in a class 2 at Salisbury today) on 24th April. He’s down 7lb to OR80 from that run having run over 7f on the AW (hates the AW) and a 2nd LTO over 9-fulrongs when staying-on but that extra furlong found him out. He’s a class 3 performer at his best and he should be too good for a lot of these, but he is a bit quirky; so he’ll either run well or very poorly. Each way only and current odds of 12/1 look fair value. I reckon he’ll be more like 8/1 at race time.
At Salisbury, there is a class 3 handicap over 12f which is hotly contested, but perhaps the horse with most potential is bottom weight COMEDY ACT from Sir Mark Prescott. He has his stable in top form and handled this horse’s half-brother Viva Pataca who has won 8 x Grade 1’s in Hong Kong and is a OR120+ horse. COMEDY ACT is running off OR75 today and has won his last 2 races, both times very comfortably. Sir Mark has 4 out today, but he sends only COMEDY ACT to Salisbury and he may be hard to beat here. Only 6 go to post and 5/1 good value for a horse with this potential.
The meeting at Bath does not appeal.
Carlisle 3:30 MOUNT HADLEY, 0.5pts each-way @ 12/1
Salisbury 3:50 COMEDY ACT, 1pt win @ 5/1
Oddslines – day 2
I’ve been reading race-form study books for years. I started with a book written in 1981 called “Always Back Winners” by Stewart Simpson. I then read “Braddock's Complete Guide to Horse Race Selection and Betting” by Peter Braddock written in 1984. Both these books were written before ratings were made available in the Racing Post (or Sporting Life as it was then). In the late-1980’s, I came across Clive Holts book called “(Profitable Winners) Always Back Value Winners” at a jumble sale. Clive Holt was a tipster in the 1970’s & 80’s who sold his racing selections over the phone. He sold this book as his method for selection, but (as you might expect) it omitted detail in vital areas. What it did do though, was introduce me to the concept of oddslines by highlighting that most horses that win will do so again; and that most races (over 50%) are won by one of the 1st-3 in the betting market.
By pooling the knowledge from these books along with some statistical racing research prepared by members of a forum called “Smartsig” (don’t ask me what it means, I don’t know), I focused on what I consider are the main areas that determine which horse is most likely to win a race based on factors over which I have no personal control or influence. When you allow personal choice to influence judgement, then you lose clarity of thought.
The areas that I consider most determine a race winner are:-
Recent form and fitness;
Recent form is measured by whether a horse has won or been placed in the 1st-4 in its most recent race. Fitness is measured by the number of days since its most recent race; the more recent a race then the fitter the horse – and if its won in the last 7-days that is a big plus.
Ratings revolves around official handicap ratings and the undeniable fact that the fastest horses win the most races and those are the horses with the highest official ratings. The betting forecast (not the market) is taken into consideration as a “deciding” factor.
Preferences for going and the trip (distance over which the race is to be run) are measured in previous successes; with a course & distance winner being a big plus. How these factors are turned into an oddsline will be in tomorrow’s blog.
World Cup Specials – all or nothing!
Will the nightmare turn into a fiasco? This is it, the last chance saloon. I’d rather the England team went down 2:3 than give us another 0:0 draw. Come on you band of brothers!
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Thanks from Wayward Lad.