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Record of the blog selections

Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 24 June 2010

Double for Frankie?

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections
Oddslines – Day 3
World Cup Specials - Beckenbauer to eat humble pie!

Review of yesterday’s blog
Both selections were beaten and 2pts lost. I was right about the Carlisle Bell and the winner probably having a low draw as Camerooney was drawn 2 and made all to win at 18/1 (was 8/1 in the betting forecast). Whereas MOUNT HADLEY never got into the race; as I wrote yesterday, he is a bit quirky; so he’ll either run well or very poorly. The other selection COMEDY ACT tried to make all in his race and led to inside the final furlong, but that was a tough ask in this, his first try at 12-furlongs.

Today’s Racing Selections
Plenty of racing to choose from. This afternoon at Goodwood, John Gosden sends one of only two runners today (from 5 meetings and 32 races) SCORN in the 2:35. This one was 2nd to Tuesday’s blog selection Sea Of Heartbreak, it could take a lot of beating but won’t be much of a price, probably less than 2/1. At Hamilton this evening, Saeed Suroor sends his only runner of the day YAMAL for the 8:00 and Frankie Dettori rides. Dettori is in cracking form this week with another 2 winners from 3 rides yesterday, he has only 2 rides at Hamilton today; the other being COCKNEY in the 8:30. Both of these should win. Henry Cecil only has one runner today WHIRLY DANCER in the 8:10 at Leicester and he has a great strike rate here (10 from 33 with 3yo’s and older). There are a couple of good races at Newcastle, but they are very competitive. At Warwick, there is a good Listed race at 4:05 where Luca Cumani has entered his filly SETA. Cumani thinks a lot of this horse and had high hopes for it earlier this year.

Selections:
Hamilton 8:00 YAMAL & 8:30 COCKNEY : 1pt win double
Leicester 8:10 WHIRLY DANCER: 1pt win @ 9/2

Oddslines – day 3
Essentially, an oddsline is an assessment of the chance of a particular horse winning the race. That chance is assessed as a percentage and converted into odds. To arrive at the percentage, each runner in the race needs to be assessed and rated. All the ratings are then added and each individual horse’s rating in that race divided by the total to find the percentage of winning. That percentage then can be compared with the actual betting market odds to find the relative value. It sounds complicated, but it isn’t.
For recent form and fitness, you need to give a value for the latest run. If you consider that the worst is nil points for finishing unplaced, then you must value a win and then value 2nd, 3rd and 4th in between. For fitness, I reckon that a horse which hasn’t run in 28-days is not race-fit, whereas a horse that ran yesterday is super-fit (on the basis that if it had a problem it wouldn’t be running again the next day). If you award a point per day with 28pts for having run yesterday to nil points for having its last run 29-days ago; then for a race-win you need to award something comparative, say 30pts; and 2nd to 4th on a sliding scale.
For ratings, it’s a bit easier in that these are provided by the handicapper. Simply take the highest officially rated runner in the race and award that horse 30pts. Work your way down the handicap till the horse (if there is one) rated 30lbs below the top-rated horse gets nil points.
For preferences, I award 10pts each for a win at the trip, at the course, and on the going; total 30pts. So, a horse winning yesterday at the same course, at the same trip and on the same going would have 88pts, and if it had the highest official rating in the race it would have the maximum of 118pts.
If the final percentages are not clear-cut, then you can take other factors into account. The betting forecast in the Racing Post is a good benchmark. For instance yesterday, in the race I reviewed at Carlisle, 3 of the 1st-4 finishers were in the 1st-4 of the betting forecast (Major Phil @ 9/2, Flowing Cape & Sir George @ 13/2, and 8/1 Camerooney). But the draw (if it has an effect, best measured as a negative) can also be used.
If possible, I will oddsline a race tomorrow.

World Cup Specials – Beckenbauer to eat humble pie!
Well, the lads did it, but only just. Now it’s Germany next and the Chancellor can breathe a sigh of relief as the game is on Sunday afternoon. Will Beckenbauer be made to eat his words and served a slice of humble pie? Come on you band of brothers!

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

3 comments:

  1. Back on 29th April, I wrote about FAVOURITE GIRL. When a 2yo, she was 2nd (btn a head) in a Listed race over 6f trip and was rated OR104 on that run. She struggled as a 3yo off that rating and had dropped to OR78. It looks like she needed to regain race-fitness as she dropped a couple more pounds to OR74 off which she won. Today, she’s won for the 2nd time in her last 3 races, this time off OR78. I reckon she’s capable of running well up to OR90 and can be followed.

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  2. Yesterday, I wrote that Roger Charlton had sent out 3 winners from his last 5 runners over the past 5 days. He sent out 2 yesterday without success, but of his 3 out today (at 3 different tracks) he's had a 9/1 winner in ZERO MONEY at Goodwoood. Remember, follow the trainers in form!

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  3. On a football theme the World Cup has become a bit like the Second World War, France surrendered early, USA came with a late charge and England have been left to fight the Germans !!

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