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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 29 February 2012

Cheltenham Festival update

The 445th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Sometimes I wonder if I'd be better off having a wager on everything that I consider has a chance in a race irrespective of subsequent developments.

Yesterday, I looked at the beginners' chase over 3m1½f at Catterick at 4:50 (I wrote the wrong race-time on my blog), and narrowed the race down to just 3 horses: Howizee (my 1st choice), The Red Laird, and Carmela Maria. They duly finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd with HOWIZEE wining at odds of 7/2 with less than a length covering the trio. I did say that it was a close call in my blog with little separating them, but I didn't think that would be the actual case on the track! Actually, while I was right about The Red Laird disputing the lead for most of the race, HOWIZEE never looked the likely winner (in my opinion) until his jockey galvanised a burst of energy from him that took him into the lead 100 yards from home. The Tricast paid £87.75 and even the Exacta paid £19.60, both to a £1 stake. Unfortunately, by 4:50pm, I had already lost my "trade" on BILLY MURPHY. I sincerely thought he had a decent chance of breaking his duck in this race , but he ran extremely poorly.

There are 3 jump meetings today at Bangor, Folkestone and Southwell. At Bangor, the handicap hurdle over 2m4f at 3:25 looks interesting, particulary the entry of Quartz De Thaix by Venetia Williams. I was on Quartz De Thaix when he was a running-on 7th behind Holmwood Legend at Cheltenham last March, and he last won over hurdles at 2m4f at Aintree. He runs off OR140 today and he looks a better than 18/1 chance as I write. The odds for this race are severely distorted by the race fav Big Easy. I also like Cantlow in this race, as he looks a potential improver and I've been waiting a long time for his return to the track.

At Folkestone, we have the 3m7f Kent National at 4:15. Only 7 go to post, and when we have single-figure fields for these long-distance races the results can be unpredictable. I'd be willing to have a wager on WIDE RECIEVER who has not looked like stopping improving yet, but it would only be a small bet at that. Finally, at Southwell, where the going is on the firm side,  I am struggling to find an interest.

So, another day without a blog selection but don't despair, racing seems to pick-up from tomorrow and we have some good looking handicaps over the next few days. I'm disappointed that ZARRAFAKT is going for the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster on Saturday as I reckon he had a cracking chance of the JLT Speciality Chase on Tuesday at Cheltenham, but perhaps his OR145 rating (which will likely lead to an 11st 3lb weight) has put connections off. My eye is drawn to OGEE on OR130 for that race which he ran 2nd in as a 7yo novice. I'm also taken by Keiran Burke's comments in today's Weekender on FORTIFICATION for the Glenfarclas Cross-Country Chase. He says he is tempted to renew his jockey license for the ride, and that says something to me!  Currently 33/1 for the race, and with just OR131, that means he'll receive 25lb (and carry just 10st 1lb) from Garde Champetre. Being a front-runner who stays all day long he could be a worthwhile eachway wager in a race I usually swerve.

My trading record on Betfair since 1st January is now: 34 trades / 19 "wins" / 9 "losses" / 6 "trade-outs"; the ROI stands at +36.70%.

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Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

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