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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 22 February 2012
Watering commences at Cheltenham
As I write, it has been announced that watering of the course at Cheltenham has commenced. What this means is that the likelihood is the going will be "good-to-soft, good in places" on the opening day and will get quicker during the meeting which is pretty much what has happened for the past couple of years. That's good news for those horses that ran well on Thursday and Friday last year – the likes of Noble Prince, Big Bucks, Bueana Vista, Albertas Run etc.
My thoughts yesterday on Medermit's chances in the Ryanair brought a comment from the Lonesome Pundit (who writes a good blog and he's running an antepost Cheltenham competition) who thought I was a bit harsh on the horse. Opinions are what make racing and even Medermit has a chance at winning the Ryanair. However, Somersby (2nd in the Arkle behind Sizing Europe) beat him in November at Ascot on level terms, and Riverside Theatre did the same last Saturday. I stand by what I say about his current odds for the Ryanair, and you also have to consider his trainers' (Alan King) comments after Saturday's race. He offered no excuse, "beaten by the better horse" was his words, so he's not expecting to reverse form with Riverside Theatre when they next meet. Given the favourite for the last two Ryanair's – Poquelin – is 20/1 with some books, and he's run the joint highest RP Rating this season of those entered in the race, I thought he'd be the Pricewise antepost selection. If he's considered a 20/1 chance for the race, in my opinion MEDERMIT should be at no shorter odds.
At Taunton yesterday, the morning market move for Velator paid-off and he won well. Clearly, that support came from connections as when that was exhausted his odds drifted during the afternoon from 11/2 out to an SP of 10/1. Later, Sire De Grugy gave a huge boost for the form of ZARKANDAR who beat him in the Betfair Hurdle last Friday.
At Wetherby, Wolf Moon was a non-runner but, in the earlier novice handicap chase, RAILWAY DILLON will have gone into many a notebook when he tore apart what looked to be a decent field very easily.
Today, we have a couple of jump meetings at Doncaster and Ludlow. THE COCKNEY MACKEM looks to have been given a huge chance in the 2:25 at Doncaster so long as he stays this 3-mile trip – he's never raced further than 2m3f. The 3-mile h'cap hurdle at 4:05 looks a cracking contest with 18-runners. There are several from my horse alert list running and of those I reckon Chac Du Cadran (currently 11/1) can nick a place; it looks an open contest.
At Ludlow, KING OF CASTILE goes for a hat-trick of wins since joining Jim Best of Lewes. He's a bit of a thorn in my side this one, as he was the horse offered to me by Bechers-Brook, the tipster who is no longer trading. Nothing else looks interesting.
For those who are interested, my Betfair "trade" was successful yesterday (it was a back-to-lay on Hobbs Dream) and my record since 1st January is now: 29 trades / 16 "wins" / 7 "losses" / 6 "trade-outs"; the ROI stands at +43.20%.
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Thanks from Wayward Lad.