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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 28 February 2012
When I lived in Hong Kong, I was told that the local Chinese had a fear (if that's the correct interpretation) of the number 4. As such, being the 444th edition of the blog, if I'm ever likely to post a losing wager then it's today. We'll give it about 18months or so and, when I post my 888th blog, then we will really go to town!
I'm not superstitious (at least, I don't believe I am – my friends may say otherwise) but I do think that we can (subconsciously) conspire to affect the fate of certain acts. For instance, if you think that you are going to be late, then your actions will make you late.
The meeting at Plumpton yesterday did not produce any worthwhile wagers for me. The opening race saw the syndicate horse (in which I have a share) CHILWORTH LASS run for the 3rd time over hurdles, and she now qualifies for a hurdle rating. I'm still in the dark as to what her preferences are so I will await the rating given her by the handicapper and leave it to her trainer Sheena West. My Betfair "trade" also ran in that race. It was a back-to-lay on Hawkhill and it came close to being successful as at the 3rd last flight he looked like being involved. What I didn't bank on was Venetia Williams' debut hurdler DUAISEOIR wining very impressively and this could be one to follow in the coming weeks. There was a significant gamble on Primaries in this race who was 4/1 in the morning and started the 7/4 fav. Having looked a one-paced and very doubtful stayer in France, I could not understand the reason for the support and so it proved as the horse was beaten half-a-mile out.
We have a couple of jumps meetings today at Catterick and Leicester. The beginners' chase over 3m1½f at Catterick at 4:20 looks very interesting and could be one to watch with the Festival in mind. I'm looking more at the next race for a trade and the 3m1½f class 4 hurdle looks like it may throw-up some trading possibilities. There are a lot of duffers in this race, including Donald McCain's Realmont who is very much on a recovery mission having shown nothing in 2 runs since arriving from France. I don't think the going will be soft enough for The Red Laird, and perhaps the same can be said for Carmela Maria who has won twice recently over C&D. As such, I'm liking HOWIZEE who won well at Doncaster over an extended 3-mile on similar going to today, but who did not enjoy the soft going LTO at Kelso. I'm hoping that his jockey will track the leader (who should be The Red Laird) before taking closer order about 3-out and (hopefully) providing me with an opportunity to trade-out at a profit. I really can't say which will win this, it could be one of the 3 mentioned or another of the outsiders in the race. In fact, the more I look at this race, the more I think I may steer clear.
I'm struggling to find a wager at Leicester also, altho' I think BILLY MURPHY may well break his "duck" in the 3:30. Still a maiden after 25 races , I doubt he will find a better opportunity that this to win as only Free Speech looks capable of defying him, but he needs to recover from his latest couple of poor runs.
If you are in the market for an antepost wager on the Cheltenham Festival, Bet365 have today started tasking wagers "non-runner, no bet". Their odds are not the best but the offer is there. For the Arkle Chase, Paddy Power are offering to refund all losing single wagers up to £100 should the fav for the race Sprinter Sacre win. If you have been receiving my antepost emails then you may want to take advantage of that Paddy Power offer with the wager that I have advised.
My trading record on Betfair since 1st January is now: 33 trades / 19 "wins" / 8 "losses" / 6 "trade-outs"; the ROI stands at +41.90%.
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Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.