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Record of the blog selections

Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Saturday, 22 November 2014

Betfair Chase at Haydock - 22nd November

A cracking day of racing lies ahead.
Be careful with the ground though as after a lot of rain it could be more heavy than soft ground being raced on.

Horse Alert List runners:
Haydock 12:10 Getabuzz - expect a better run than LTO
Haydock 12:45 Emperor's Choice - usually needs his seasonal debut
Haydock 2:25 Oscar Rock - will love the soft ground, and wont be far away.
Haydock 3:00 Harry Topper - see race review below
Haydock 3:35 Midnight Appeal - would be my idea of the winner of this race but isn't value at 11/2 as he is a bit one-paced and vulnerable to a late challenge.

Ascot 1:30 Hi Note
Ascot 2:05 Fox Appeal and Bury Parade
Ascot 2:40 Blue Fashion
Ascot 3:15 Brick Red and Parsnip Pete

The feature race of the day is the Betfair Chase won last year by Cue Card with Dynaste in 2nd. When he ran at Exeter recently, Cue Card looked a little lack-lustre but it was his first run since Boxing Day 2013. I'd expect him to find 7-10lb on that run which puts him in the mix for a repeat win. I'd expect Dynaste to be in the mix, but the soft ground is not in his favour, nor the 3m1f trip, so I can't see him winning if they all finish. For me, the horse that has all the qualities to win this race is SILVINIACO CONTI. He's won the race before, he's beaten both Cue Card and Dynaste at level weights in the past 12 months, the ground will not phase him and he'll appreciate it more than the "good" ground he's run on for his last 3 races, and he'll come into this race prepared to win it by Paul Nicholls. I really cannot see another horse getting in the mix, but one who may is Harry Topper who is still unexposed at this level and could run a great race if the ground is on the heavy side of soft by the time of the race. The odds of 7/2 look fair about SILVINIACO CONTI and he's the win wager in this race. Betfred are 9/2 but you may not get much money on.  For those who are adventurous, a reverse forecast with Silviniaco Conti and Harry Topper could prove lucrative.

At Ascot at 2:05 there is a terrific Grade 2 chase over 2m3f ("Amlin 1965 Chase") with just 6 runners, but what a field - this race would not look out of place at the Cheltenham Festival. Al Ferof is still capable of running up to his official rating of OR162 based on his performance in the Ryanair Chase last March. Nicholls' other runner, Bury Parade, is better than his rating of OR153 but even in receipt of 4lb he's going to struggle in this. Ditto Fox Appeal, but waht I like about this one is we've yet to see just how good he is as he likes to chase a target. Somersby will struggle as he's about 7lb below is OR164 rating.  Wishful Thinking is at the top of his game at 11yo - remarkable. If he goes as well as he did at Aintree LTO he'll take a lot of beating. However, he's never gone particularly well when running right-handed. The fly in the ointment is the Henderson runner Rajdhani Express. Based on his Ryanair 3rd (with Al Ferof behind him on levels) he has a terrific chance at the weights, even if the soft ground is supposedly against him. At odds of 7/2 about RAJDHANI EXPRESS looks very good value and, having won on heavy ground and going right-handed, he looks the one to be on.  I'm very surprised he's not the fav for this race at the weights.

Selection:
Haydock 3:00 SILVINIACO CONTI, £10 win @ 7/2 (available generally)

Ascot 2:05 RAJDHANI EXPRESS, £10 win @ 7/2 (available generally)

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1 comment:

  1. A Saturday winner at last with SILVINIACO CONTI staying-on to take the Betfair Chase.

    ReplyDelete