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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 12 November 2014
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Long-term readers of the blog will remember this corresponding day last year as I tipped the 25/1 winner Midnight Appeal. Only 9 go to post for this years renewal of the race which is at 2:00pm at Bangor (the morning fav is a non-runner). I'm not sure about current fav Knock A Hand as he'll need to run a career-best to win today, and the 2nd-fav Bob Ford hasn't convinced me he truly stays 3-mile. Much the same can be said of What's Happening, but he looks to have more potential off his rating of OR134. Howard's Legacy is interesting, especially when you look at his 2nd at Chepstow last April. He beat stable companion Ballyoliver in that race and that one reappeared last week to win off the same rating - whereas Howard's Legacy has been dropped 2lb to OR125 as he didn't run well subsequently at Wincanton in May. He can go well when fresh and is certainly good enough to win off this rating if he's in the mood. Herdsman is unexposed as a chaser and will love this soft ground. He also has no stamina issues. The ground isn't right for Dursey Sound (prefers good-to-soft or better), and OR138 for Count Salazar looks harsh. Another attempt at the Grand National awaits Across The Bay, and although we know Ikorodu Road can win off a long break, it may be asking a lot to see him win this on his stable debut. I'd go for What's Happening, but his trainer Tom George has an appalling record at this track. Still, the trainer has his stable flying and odds of 8/1 with Ladbrokes looks fair.
I much prefer the chances of an old favourite of mine later in the afternoon, FOXCUB. The trip and ground will be perfect for him, and we know the horse is race-fit as he's run twice this autumn already. I'd ignore his last run as he made a bad error early on which put him out of the race, but he stayed-on well to be 5th. The fav Kentucky Hyden was the runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle but subsequently ran poorly at Punchestown. This is a trip into the unknown for him. The 2nd-fav El Macca couldn't win with AP McCoy in the saddle LTO; and the rest of this field look very ordinary. The form of his win at Leicester over a similar trip and ground looks useful now and I was expecting his odds to be around 6/1 for this, so 11/1 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes looks generous and makes an eachway wager a viable proposition.
Bangor 3:00 FOXCUB, £5 eachway @ 11/1 with Ladbrokes or Bet365 - 5th odds 1,2,3