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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 21 November 2014
Betfair Chase weekend at Haydock
The blog has been a bit sporadic lately as my "proper" job has been very busy lately. However, a change of scenery is on the horizon - not sure if it will be a good or a bad thing, only time will tell.
Just looking at the meeting at Haydock this afternoon as my brother who writes the blog http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.co.uk will be attending the meeting. The opening race which is a 3-mile hurdle at 12:50, looks interesting and there are a couple that catch my eye. From my alert list is Night In Milan who is one of my favourite handicap chasers. He's rated OR144 as a chaser so comes into this on his hurdle rating of OR129. However, he ran in this race last season off OR125 and was well beaten before winning at Doncaster over fences NTO. I expect a similar performance from him in this today. The market leaders look weak, and one that's caught my eye is MATHEW RILEY who ran a cracker here over hurdles at this trip and on similar soft ground last December. That looks even better form now than it did then, as he won't me a horse like Sausolito Sunrise in today's race. Odds of 8/1 look useful. Another interesting contender is Who Owns Me who has his first run for Michael Easterby - he could run well if the change of trainer has reinvigorated him.
The rest of the meeting could go to the short-priced fav's in what are small field races. TURBAN looks nailed-on for the 1:20, but this solitary runner for Willie Mullins (ridden by Ruby Walsh) is odds-on at 4/6.
In the novice hurdle at 1:55 over 2-mile, I wagered on THE BROCK AGAIN when he ran 3rd at Sandown on the 8th November. That ground was very heavy (not soft) in places and he looked the most likely winner till the ground took its toll and he stamina gave out. He'll strip fitter today and so long as the ground is proper soft, and not soft/heavy, he should win. Odds of 15/8 look very interesting as the only realistic challenger is Oscarteea who will struggle to concede 6lb to the Nicholls horse.
I don't agree with the market for the 2:30 which is a novice chase over 2m6f. Sure, the Nicholls horse Virak should be the race-fav but odds of "evens" are too short. What I find odd is that the odds about Nicky Hendersons only runner here today GOLDEN HOOF at 7/1 are too long - I'd have him more the 5/2 2nd-fav with Monkey Kingdom at 9/2 and Virak at something like 7/4. GOLDEN HOOF beat a decent yardstick LTO at Aintree and this race is within his compass.
The final couple of races on the card should go the the Paul Nicholls horses; Vago Collonges and Abidjan.
No recommended selections from me today as MATHEW RILEY could only be a small eachway wager; and THE BROCK AGAIN is too short in the market (my minimum odds for a recommendation is 9/4). Similarly, I expect GOLDEN HOOF to really push the Virak, but again it would have to be an eachway wager and odds of 7/1 are not juicy enough for that - it's win or bust.
Back again tomorrow for the Betfair Chase.