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Friday, 7 November 2014

Saturday at Sandown

Saturday 8th November is my birthday (55 years old), and I'll be spending the day at Sandown races where there is a decent meeting planned.

As the weather could change and seriously affect the ground, especially at Sandown, I've not recommended any selections, but you can tell which horses I'll be on from the narrative below. It'll be just my luck to have named a couple of 12/1 winners!

Looking at the runners there's a stack of alert list horses entered:
12:45 No No Mac
1:20 Irish Saint
2:30 Roudoudou Ville, Dolatulo, Bally Legend, Filbert, Loose Chips.
3:05 Valid Reason
3:40 Loch BA, Saroque

In the handicap hurdle that opens the meeting, the well-bred NO NO MAC is given an opportunity to open his campaign with a win. This looks a weak contest with the only question (in my mind) whether the Nicholls 4yo Rothman can fulfil his potential. Odds of 6/1 (I'm writing this at 8pm on Friday) look generous about NO NO MAC.

I've been looking forward to seeing IRISH SAINT jump a fence after his exciting campaign over hurdles last season. Unfortunately, this 3-runner race is not a betting opportunity.

At 2:30 we have the 2m4f & 110 yards Class 2 handicap chase. This looks very competitive and it's interesting that none of those from my alert list are amongst the market leaders. The lightly raced and well-bred Barrakilla could be a 150+ horse if he's as good as his half-bro China Rock, so it's no wonder he's the fav running off a rating of OR134. We've already seen Foundation Man run to a high level when winning the "Bobby Renton" last month, and I think he looks interesting in this race off OR135.  I don't think Sound Investment will appreciate this trip and he needs to improve on his best efforts to win this. Roudoudou Ville has only run 6 times since winning this race in 2011; if the ground isn't too soft he could go close. This trip is too long for Filbert, and I think the pace of this race will be too quick for Dolatulo. No concerns on trip or ground for Bally Legend - and he has had a pipe-opener over hurdles and I'm expecting a big run from him as he goes well right-handed. Much the same can be said of Loose Chips and if the rain comes and turns the ground heavy he is the one I'll probably be on. This is a tricky race and at the odds I'll probably have wagers on several in the race: for instance £10 win on Foundation Man @ 8/1, £10 win on Roudoudou Ville @ 8/1 and £5 eachway on both Loose Chips @ 10/1 and Bally Legend @ 16/1.

As soon as I saw the field for the 3-mile chase at 3:40 there was only one horse I wanted to be on: Loch BA. He started last season rated OR133 and was competitive off that so on OR124 he looks chucked-in. If you also consider that he goes very well right-handed and loves the soft ground and he could bolt in. The danger will likely be the novice chaser Lookslikerainted, but Caulfields Venture won like a decent horse LTO and seems to improve with every run. My other alert horse runner is Saroque and this could be the surprise contender. If he runs to the level he ran when 2nd at Exeter over 3-mile on soft ground then he'll be in the picture. This looks like another multi-selection race with say £10 win on both Loch BA @ 4/1 and Saroque @ 8/1.

Wincanton - Alert Horse runners
1:30 Horizontal Speed,
2:40 Ifyousayso, Dare To Endeavour, Just A Par

The Badger Ales Chase at 2:40 has been won by some talented chasers and Paul Nicholls is not afraid of sending a good one for this that is carrying a big weight. Unfortunately, I don't think my alert horse from Nicholls stable Just A Par is up to winning this with top-weight. I'm much more interested in the other pair who are both trained by Tom George - Ifyousayso and Dare To Endeavour. Stable jockey Paddy Brenna is on Dare To Endeavour and if he wins (or runs well) that will be a good pointer for Saroque at Sandown (see above). However, I prefer the other George runner Ifyousayso as he looks very leniently handicapped on OR130. He looks a great eachway wager at 20/1 as his run at Newbury when 2nd to the Henderson winner Thanks For Coming over 3-mile looks very good form.

Kelso - Alert Horse runners
2:50 Firth Of The Clyde

2 comments:

  1. Why do you think it will be too far for Filbert. He very clearly needed more than the two miles at Chepstow a couple of weeks ago.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Tim, I've had Filbert on my alert list since Feb 2013 after he won at Ludlow over 2-mile on soft ground. Next time out he ran over 2m4f at Kempton off OR128. The race-readers notes in the Racing Post says it all: "chased winner 3 out, soon ridden, dropped to 3rd 2 out, beaten when mistake last." Being ridden 3-out and then making mistakes are the signs of not staying the trip.
      He was not seen again till the following November when he probably needed the race, but still ran well over 2-mile. With the benefit if that run, he ran a career-best over 2m1f at Newbury when winning a Class 2 handicap. He's not won since, but has run well over 2-miles.
      It's hindsight now, but I think my assessment of his stamina before yesterdays race was good as he ran 5th weakening from 2-out and was beaten over 20-lengths by the winner.
      He's on my alert list as over 2m-2m2f he should be capable of winning again.
      Hope this helps.

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