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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 31 October 2015
The weekend opens with an 8/1 winner
Only one race was assessed, and only one selection given - but what a selection! It was an early start at 8:30am, but we had to get in early to grab the 8/1 odds about WAKANDA, as very quickly those odds started to tumble as the market recognised his outstanding chance on known form. As such, he started the 11/4 joint fav, but he was never in danger of sharing the spoils making-all to win by over 4-lengths. This exciting 6yo will hopefully pay his way again this season as he climbs the ratings, and what I like about his trainer Sue Smith is that she is prepared to blood her youngsters early and take advantage of their lenient handicap marks.
The win has taken the pressure away from me as I've now given a 2nd winner to all those who signed-up for the blog-via-email after the fantastic winning double we had on 10th October. And these winners are not 6/4 chances; oh no, odds of 8/1 is a great winner by anyone's standards. It also reinforces my own belief in my race-reading ability and that my "horse alert" method works.
Onto Saturday, and we already have a wager on the board with an antepost stake on DYNASTE in the feature race of the day at Wetherby, the Charlie Hall Chase at 3:05pm. We've managed to secure some value as we are on at 5/1, and I expect him to start at 7/2 or shorter. However, the soft ground is against him, and if making a selection this morning I would not be on DYNASTE.
We have a host of alert list runners tomorrow, but I cannot just wager on them blindly; they have to be followed when conditions are right for them. To prevent other potential tipsters from knowing what's on my alert list by reading the blog, I'll only mention those that I'm considering for a wager.
There are 3 cracking jump meetings at Wetherby, Ascot and Ayr, which mean there is no need for a scatter-gun approach to wagers - we can pick and choose our targets. There is nothing on the Ayr card for me despite a couple of horses on the alert list being involved, so let's concentrate on Ascot.
Ascot has an absolutely 1st-class card, and I wish I was there and not here in Cornwall (even tho' I am visiting my 13yo son as it's half-term). The 2m1f (Listed) handicap chase at 2:15pm looks a cracker of a race with 12-starters and a 9/2 fav in Sgt Reckless, who has only had 3 chase races. He has potential, but I think those odds do not represent value in so competitive a race. Now, Baby Mix has been on my alert list for 2 years and has been knocking on the door of a good win since returning from a long break in April. He goes well right-handed and boasts good speed figures, but I'm not sure that the trip will suit him, as he's been racing over 2m4f to good effect this summer. I think Ulck Du Lin will be hard-pushed to win off OR142, and I think a better chance is held by the 7yo Royal Regatta who is relatively unexposed having had only 6 chase races to date, and he was only just touched-off over C&D back in March. Odds of 9/1 look fair eachway value at quarter-odds a place.
Then at 3:25pm there is the 3-mile Grade 3 handicap chase with a large field of 15-runners, all of whom are serious handicappers. Likely fav Ned Stark has won 3 of his 5 chase races, but this is a tough 3-mile and, for me, he's not yet proven he has the stamina for it. What A Warrior won this race last year off OR135, and he's rated only 5lb higher; but he had the benefit of a winning run last year and comes into this off a break of 235-days. Virak didn't run well here in February with only 3 rivals, and probably wants soft ground. Pendra is on my alert list - and is also my entry on the Alternative 10-2-Follow list (see the link) - but I feel this trip may expose his stamina limitations, and he's going to be best when tackling the 2m5f at Cheltenham in the "Paddy Power". As such, I'm wondering if the winner will be one of my other alert list runners. Fox Appeal may not have stayed 3-mile as a hurdler, but he showed he stayed the trip as a chaser last week when 3rd at Cheltenham, a track that doesn't suit him (that was his best performance in 4 visits there). However, the "good" ground is a worry, as he needs some juice to show him best form. Present View has looked vulnerable beyond 2m6f, but he may have the class to carry him to victory anyway (as he's certainly better than OR145) if the ground were favourable. However, he's another who wants it softer than "good". With doubts over most of the market leaders, I'm thinking of sticking my neck out with the final horse on my alert list in the race; one that stays the trip and has won twice on "good" ground as a hurdler - Leo Luna. This horse was bred to win a Derby but, too slow to win a 3yo maiden, was sold to trainer Gary Moore. Admittedly, he's not beaten much in his 3 wins over fences, but he can't do much more than win when given the opportunity. I just wonder if I'm reading too much into this horse's races as a novice chaser. That Barry Geraghty has been booked for PENDRA has swung my opinion, but I can only go eachway. I will be having a small eachway on LEO LUNA as well.
Selection already advised:
Wetherby 3:05 DYNASTE, £10 win @ 5/1
Ascot 2:15 ROYAL REGATTA; £5 eachway @ 9/1 (Bet Victor & Paddy Power, quarter-odds a place 1,2,3)
Ascot 3:25 PENDRA; £5 eachway @ 8/1 (generally available, quarter-odds a place 1,2,3)
Ascot 3:25 LEO LUNA: £2.50 eachway @ 18/1 (Bet Victor & Paddy Power, quarter-odds a place 1,2,3)
Total = £25 staked