Absolute Shambles does it again

This is the 329th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No luck today for my selection posted on Betting League, which was HARLESTONE TIMES in the Ebor handicap. I really thought this horse had a much better chance than the morning odds of 25/1 as John Dunlop has a great strike-rate at York and had aimed this horse at the race since he won at Goodwood back in May. Unfortunately, he never got a look in and trailed in 11th. I had a feeling in my bones this morning about John Dunlop as he sent out just 3 horses to the races today; 2 to York and the other one – Berling – went to Chester, where it won at odds of 11/2 (touched 7/1). You can’t back all the “single” runners that every trainer sends out to a track and, in fact, Dunlop hasn’t had a winner at Chester in over 5 seasons, but making a note of trainers with single runners at a track is always a good place to start when looking for winners.

Those who followed my jumps season Horses-to-Follow list last season will know I was enthusiastic about Absolute Shambles early-on, but that enthusiasm waned as he ran poorly struggling to find his form. He did win a chase off OR80 in March but was unable to follow up suggesting he was just unreliable. Well, LTO he was put over hurdles with 1st-time cheek-pieces off OR76 (which was 11lb below the last rating he ran from over hurdles) and he won at 25/1. Today, raised just 6lb for that win to OR82, he was confidently ridden by 5lb claimer Tom Cannon and won again at 8/1. I wrote in my Horses-to-Follow list that ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES looked to be on a very lenient rating of OR92 back in September 2010, as such with his new-found confidence he should be up to winning off that mark over hurdles and, as such, can defy another hike by the handicapper. Remember, he can handle good-to-soft, stays 3-mile-plus and runs from the front – he could turn out to be OR100+. His full-sister Iron Maid won off OR115 as a hurdler, and his half-brother Longshanks was 7th in the National won by Silver Birch and won off OR130 as a chaser; so stick with him.

I have started a duplicate blog using Wordpress (link is adjacent) and the intention is to transfer totally to Wordpress from 1st October by which time I will have learnt how to use the platform to best effect. In the meantime, if fellow bloggers want to include a link to the Wordpress page on your own blog, please do.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Day 3 at York - "Gimcrack"

This is the 328th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Yesterday’s blog generated a lot of interest and a fair few supportive comments – thanks to those who responded via this blog and twitter. It’s always good to get feedback especially from other horseracing bloggers and aficionados.

It’s a late blog today as there is only one race that captured my interest (the 3:05 at York) and my selection for that race has been posted on Betting League. You have to sign up to view my selections now and it costs you a few quid a month but I think its worth it. I won’t flood your email box with half-a-dozen selections a day, chipping away at your hard-earned betting bank. If I have a selection, then I will have seriously considered not only its chance but also the odds available and whether it is worthwhile. Sometimes, I over cautious and if you refer to my blog page on Wednesday you will see that I talked myself out of a winning wager on TWICE OVER for the flimsiest of reasons – despite nominating him as by far the best value in the race.

I also left posting this blog late to leave the previous post on the page-front as I’m not sure how many visitors scroll-down and read blogs they’ve missed – and it did generate a fair amount of interest.

When I was younger (that is, under 11yo) the “Gimcrack” used to really capture my imagination – in fact, it was one of the highlights of the flat racing season for me. Old hands will no doubt recall owner David M. Robinson won it several times in the late 1960’s with horses trained by Paul Davey. I think I am right in saying that it is a picture by Stubbs of the horse Gimcrack that sold recently at one of the highest prices paid for a painting at auction - £22.40 million on 5th July this year. It was purchased by the seller for just £12,600 in 1951. It’s come a long way down the pecking order since Mill Reef won the race in 1970 – and then went on to win the Derby and “Arc” as a 3yo before starring on the BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year show.

I cannot see anything from this year’s race repeating those feats, and so for glorious deeds we need to look to the Nunthorpe at 3:40. This race is a cracker with a heritage to match, and this year’s event fits the bill exactly. This is a race that I will watch, as I’m never quite sure with sprinters. However, HOOF IT looks a seriously good candidate following his Stewards Cup win. It would have been interesting if the 2yo Best Terms had run in this rather than the Lowther Stakes (Group 2) which she won convincingly yesterday.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.