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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 20 October 2011

From last season HTF list, 2 selections at Carlisle

The 361st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, but perhaps I should have been a bit more adventuraous with RESTEZEN D’ARMOR. He ran out a very easy winner yesterday as most of the field just did not perform and , with the benefit of hindsight, the morning odds of 2/1 were generous. Charlie Longsdon continued his tremendous form with a double by also winning with VINCITORE. I think this was a good result for form students and, despite there being only 4 runners in the race and the front 2 pulled clear, the runner-up was the Nicholls trained Aldertune. He may have been called a few names for being caught for pace at the business end, but Aldertune is well thought of by Nicholls and is a solid yardstick. VINCITORE won his previous race at Worcester on 23rd September and, so far 3 winners have won NTO (next time out) from that race (from 9 runners). Lastly, I did say TARVINI was looking like his old self and was worthy of an eachway wager and he duly ran 2nd at Fontwell.

Onto today and we have a useful looking meeting at Carlisle with another at Ludlow. Nothing takes my eye at Ludlow, but some of the races look interesting – so perhaps a day for the notebook there.
Carlisle has a couple that I want to be on today. In the 3:55, a class 3 h’cap chase over 3m & 110 yards, it is RAPID INCREASE that jumps out at me. He was on my Horses to Follow list last season when he ran just 3 times, but on the latest of those runs he won very easily at Fontwell over 3m2f. This trip may be on the short side, but Carlisle is a stiff track and this horse could be OR130+; as such odds of 10/1 (with Corals) looks great and with 4 places (16 go to post, barring non-runners) he looks one to be on. He has needed a run in the past, but O’Neill has had a few winners so I’m hoping he will be fit for this.

Next is another of last years Horses to Follow list that never actually ran – GOING WRONG. He is in the 5:00 at Carlisle which is a beginners chase over 2-mile. This trip may be on the short side for him too, but he should have the speed to cope having been a decent hurdler from just a few runs. As last as last February, he was Ferdy Murphy’s horse for the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival so he is clearly well thought of at home at at 10/1 (available generally) he is another decent looking opportunity in a race which (outside the fav) has little depth.

Carlisle 3:55, RAPID INCREASE, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Corals)
Carlisle 5:00, GOING WRONG, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 4pts staked

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