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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 1 October 2011
Good meeting at Ascot today
One of the best weekends sport in ages. Rugby, Football, Horseracing, Rugby League – you name it, this weekend has it!
At Ascot, the opening Group 3 “Cornwallis” for 2yo’s over 5-furlongs is a great pointer for next season’s sprinter types. Have your notebook handy. Next up, and we have the return of last year’s St Leger winner ARCTIC COSMOS. He’s been aimed at the Arc de Triomphe all year, and it’s only because the going is not fast enough for him that he’s not at Longchamp. He won’t run in this unless he’s fit to do the biz, and he’s a proper Group 1 horse in a Group 3 race. In my opinion (IMO) he should start odds-on for this, so anything longer than 6/4 is worth having, as such I have taken already the 5/2 offered by William Hill on Friday evening. With an autumn campaign in mind tho’, he won’t be given a hard race so I cannot make him a firm selection for the blog.
If GENKI cannot win the 3:15, a Group 3 over 6-furlongs, then it will be a decent horse that beats him. Currently 7/2 generally, that looks fair value.
The 7-furlong h’cap looks a cracker of a race. You could easily name half-a-dozen, and Smarty Socks is in peak form having won over C&D LTO. But HAWKEYETHENOO has the going he loves for the first time since winning the Victoria Cup over C&D in May this year. He also has Kieren Fallon in the saddle and looks weighted well on OR104, but this looks a tough race to call as it’s filled with rock solid handicappers.
Next on the card is the Rous Stakes over 5-furlongs and I’ll pass this race over for easier pickings. In the Listed race at 5:00, I had a wager on RAINFALL when she failed to stay a mile LTO. She won this race over 7-furlongs last season, and she should have far too much ability for this field. As such, odds of 7/2 generally look good to me.
At Ripon, nothing catches my eye other than HIDDEN GLORY in the 5:45. This horse has won twice off OR83 and wasn’t beaten far by Beachfire (no less) of OR78. Yet, here he is on OR69 with going and trip in his favour, why? Because he is being held-up in his races when he needs to run prominently. Will this be the day of return to favoured tactics?
I can’t see anything of interest at Newmarket.
The jumps racing card at Fontwell looks interesting, but Fontwell isn’t one of my favourite tracks as being a “figure-of-eight” for chases and a sharp track for hurdles, it can be too tight for some horses.
Ascot 3:15, GENKI, 1pt win at 7/2 (available generally)
Ascot 5:00, RAINFALL, 1pt win at 7/2 (Paddy Power, Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 2pts staked
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