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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 12 October 2011
Invest in what you know about
“Invest in what you know about”
Wise words from the “Off Piste” column of the Weekender provided by James Fanshawe when interviewd by John O’Hara. They originated from Lord White of Hull and although they were directed at stock market investing, they are just as valuable for “investors” in horse-racing. If you have not taken the time to appraise all the horses in a race, don’t invest in it.
I was also taken-in by the words Fanshawe said about his filly Spacious being his biggest disappointment when losing by a short-head at Ascot last summer. I was also "hit" by that loss; she was the subject that day of one of my largest ever wagers, and it marked the beginning of a losing sstreak for me.
No selections for the blog yesterday and, judging by how the results went, I probably dodged a bullet not advising anything.
The opening race was the 1st under the new “whip” rules over jumps and I felt that these new rules affected the result. Why? Because Farleigh House jumped the final flight as much the strongest horse and in front yet, his rider never once used his whip on the horse on the run-in. Not so eventual winner Tayarat, who had led for much of the race at his own pace. His rider was able to give the horse a couple of inducements on the run-in to which he responded well – and from looking a tired “also-ran” he quickly gained a winning advantage. We all have a lot to learn, and it could be an expensive winter if we don’t learn fast.
WALLS WAY may have gone close had he not fallen at the 2nd-last but, probably, the reason for the fall was that he was tired and so I doubt he’d have won anyway. BEDOUIN BAY looked impressive in winning the 20f+ novice hurdle, and he’s one going in my notebook.
What was most interesting was how much the Paul Nicholls runner SPOCK was beaten in the novice chase. Race winner OSTLAND enjoyed a return to novice company with an emphatic win, but SPOCK was disappointing. That he started the 3/1 fav and finished well ahead of a couple of race-fit rivals suggests that he met a very decent horse in OSTLAND.
As I wrote yesterday, not many horses stay 3-mile plus and as I expected, the 3 market leaders - Lost Glory, Only Witness or Winter Alchemy –filled 3 of the 1st-4 places. Jockey, AP McCoy, gave an exemplary display to win this race. He reserved a single use of the whip for his mount LOST GLORY on the 2nd-stride after the final flight, and then he showed his strength with hands’n’heels to push his horse to victory. Winter Alchemy was caught on the line, and I feel the form of this race is strong and can be followed.
I won’t be looking at the “flat” much from now on but one from my private alert list runs today at Nottingham in the 3:15 – TRES CORONAS. I’ve had him on my list since he was a fast-finishing 2nd to Granny McFee at Chester in May. I am surprised his trainer TD Barron has not employed Graham Gibbons for the ride but, even so, he looks worthy of a small ew wager at odds of 14/1 over this trip and on ground that should not inconvenience him (he did not handle the soft/heavy LTO).
There is a jumps meeting at Wetherby and at this meeting last year I advised a wager on ARCHIE’S WISH in the 2:50. He was 2nd that day off OR81 and then ran well NTO off OR84; so to go into today’s race on OR75 on ground he should appreciate looks good, and I rate him better than the 6/1 chance he currently is. The 7lb claiming jockey Joe Colliver is a bit of an unknown, but he’s won 3 races from 18 rides. The Bobby Renton H’Cap Chase probably needs a bit more thought, and if I have a selection then I will post it later.
Wetherby 2:50, ARCHIE’S WISH, 1pt win at 6/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
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