The 356th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
A great day for the blog yesterday, I hope you all took note of the 3 horses that I put up:
2:45, THAT’LL DO – won well at odds of 15/8 (advised at 11/4)
3:55, TRAFFIC ARTICLE – also won well at the tremendous odds of 8/1 (was 5/s in the morning)
5:05 SHADOW DANCER – ran a stinker, maybe ground was too quick for him.
Due to these results and all my recent blogs on the jumps racing which has seen me put-up winners at 14/1, 9/2, 8/1 and 15/8 from a handful of selections, I am going to change my advice policy. From now on ALL named horses will be posted-up as selections and included within my stats on Betting League and Tip Exchange.
TRAFFIC ARTICLE came off my private Alert List and this list is already proving profitable. I know (without bragging) that I can spot improving and under-rated horses over the jumps that go on and win NTO (next-time-out) at decent odds. My alert list will provide the backbone of my selections this jumps season.
Onto today, and we have Champions Day at Ascot. The Champion Stakes itself has been a good race for me recently as I have been a follower of TWICE OVER and he’s done me proud. He has shown himself as good as ever this season, and I believe that he handles this Ascot 10-furlong track and trip (based on his close 2nd in the Prince Of Wales to Byword in 2010). As such, current odds of 12/1 are in my opinion far too long, and I find it hard to see him finishing outside the 1st-3 in a race that has been his target all year.
At Cheltenham, the opening 3-mile novice hurdle looks competitive. I’ll not advise a selection in the race, but if the Paul Nicholls trained ROUND TOM get’s longer than 8/1 then I’ll be having a small wager on him, probably a back-to-lay (back at 9.20, lay-off at 4.60 to double investment).
Next on the card, the 2m4f class 2 h’cap chase, has cut-up due to the quick going and only 8 go to post. There will be some pace on from Billie Magern and he could take some catching as he stays 3-mile, but I think he will be caught as the pace and going should suit last year’s winner EDGEBRIAR who comes into this race just 1lb higher than the rating he won off last year. At 13/2, he looks a value wager.
The class 2 novice hurdle has one from my alert list in ONE FOR JOULES. He won easily LTO with 11st 10lb on his back and tho’ she may be outclassed by these today, she is proven race-fit and has the form in the book whereas the others still have it to prove. I think odds of 6/1 are fair value.
There are more non-runners in the 3m class 2 h’cap chase and that means the odds have contracted somewhat. But I feel that BALTHAZAR KING is on a lenient mark of OR136, not only that but he has winning form at Cheltenham and will love this going. At odds of 7/2 he looks value, but only just.
I cannot see a worthy selection at Kelso.
Cheltenham 2:40, EDGEBRIAR, 1pt win at 13/2 (Bet365, Betfred, both go best odds guaranteed)
Cheltenham 3:50, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win at 7/2 (Bet365, Betfred, both go BOG)
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