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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Tuesday, 12 November 2013

Alan King can upset the odds

I have a couple of alert runners out in Vulcanite and De Blacksmith.
Vulcanite runs at Huntingdon over 2m4f & 110 yards, and I don't think he stays much beyond 2-mile as a chaser. So, I'll be passing-over him today and waiting till he returns to 2-mile.  I am more confident about the chance of De Blacksmith who I reckon will prove a much better chaser than hurdler. He never took advantage LTO when the race-fav made a huge error, but he will have learned a lot from that and comes into the race fit to win.  However, this race – the 2:00 at Lingfield, will not be easy as there is a case for 3 of his 4 rivals and his current odds of 3/1 do not look value in the circumstances.
Going back to the race involving Vulcanite at Huntingdon at 2:10, there looks to be a wagering opportunity with one of the others. David Pipe sends Broadway Buffalo, his only runner here today, and he looks to have a big chance. But I think his OR141 rating is a bit high and I'm looking elsewhere. I think this trip will be too much for Zuider Zee, but one who will not find the trip or soft/heavy ground a problem is SALMANAZAR. He's 6/1 across the board, so look for a bookie offering best odds guaranteed like Bet Victor, Stan James, or William Hill. Trainer Alan King has his stable firing and this is the sort of horse, and improving 2nd-season hurdler, that he usually does well with.
The only other horse that picks up on my radar is O Ma Lad trained by John Quinn and running in the 1:20 at Sedgefield. This is John Quinn's only runner today and comes here fit from a run on the flat. He's won on soft on the flat, where he had an OR86 rating, so ground is no issue today. Currently only 5/2 in the market (11/4 with Stan James) I'd be more comfortable with greater than 3/1 (say 100/30). He's worth a small wager if you're in the mood.
Only the one selection today:-
Huntingdon 2:10, SALMANAZAR, £10 win @ 6/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, or William Hill, all go BOG)

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