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Record of the blog selections

LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Saturday, 16 November 2013

Paddy Power Chase selection

Not a great day yesterday, with the main selection RENARD running an absolute stinker of a race. He was the subject of a sustained gamble and started the race as the 11/2 fav (from 8/1) so there was clearly a lot of support behind him and I was not wrong in my assessment of his chance. Unfortunately, right form the off it looked like he lost his chance as he was held up in the rear of the field. As such, he had to use valuable energy (and this is a horse that gets no more than 17-furlongs) climbing the hill in the back straight trying to get into contention. He was lying in about 8th of the 17-runners at the top of the hill but couldn’t improve on that and the run to the 2nd-last after which his chance was gone. Not a great ride from his jockey. The upside is that he remains on his attractive mark of OR129 and, as he was a most consistent performer last season, the expectation is that he will come good NTO.

My other selection RUBEN COTTER looked like he did not stay the 3-mile trip here, altho’ he was ridden widest of the small field thru’out. He was under pressure a long way out and a drop to 2m6f is probably on the cards. His failure was all the more galling as HANDY ANDY who I tipped when he last ran went on to win at 15/2. I had considered the run of HANDY ANDY before the race and expected him to benefit from the additional pace-setters in the field, such as the race-fav Standing Ovation, but I thought he’d be no better than 3rd or 4th in this race. As such, I passed him over as a potential each-way selection.

So, £50 dropped yesterday and I’m not happy with that at all, with neither horse giving us a decent run for our money.

First up, the alert runners:-
Cheltenham 1:15 LE BEC
Cheltenham 1:50 ON TREND; MONBEG DUDE; TOUR DES CHAMPS; GODSMEJUDGE; BALLYBOUGH GORTA; GOULANES
Cheltenham 2:20 TAP NIGHT; JOHNS SPIRIT
Cheltenham 3:00 BALLY LEGEND; RECESSION PROOF; CLOSE HOUSE
Wetherby 2:05 DENALI HIGHWAY; NO PLANNING

Saturday’s racing starts with the Triumph Hurdle Trial followed by the 3-mile novice chase which includes the promising LE BEC. This looks a top-class novice chase and LE BEC may be in too deep here.

The Grade 3 Handicap Chase over 3m3f & 110 yards is a real slog of a race, and I managed to find 3 of the 1st-4 in this race last year including the winner Monbeg Dude who I advised as an eachway wager at 40/1 (SP 25/1). As such, I’m aware of BRADLEY who was 2nd then and who re-opposes on 23lb better terms! There are only 13 runners and with the 1st-5 in the betting all 8/1 or less, eachway wagers are out of the question, accept were MONBEG DUDE is concerned at 14/1. For me, the horse with the most potential in this is GOULANES the 5/1 fav, but those odds are too skinny. On Trend at 667/1 is interesting but he’s best on a right-hand track.

The Paddy Power Chase is ultra-competitive and see’s the return of JOHNS SPIRIT who won for us a few weeks ago. At 9/1 with William Hill as I write, we know he’s in form and we know he loves the track and ground. I had him at 144 we he was 2nd to Katenko at Sandown and I reckon he’s improved since. He’s my eachway selection.
I go to Wetherby for my win wager today, DENALI HIGHWAY in the 2:05. Both Grouse Lodge and No Planning have not shown the stamina for 3-mile and DENALI HIGHWAY looks a lot better than OR128. Odds of 11/4 look fair.

Selections:
Cheltenham 2:20 JOHNS SPIRIT, £5 eachway @ 9/1 with William Hill (BOG)


Wetherby 2:05 DENALI HIGHWAY, £10 win @ 11/4 available generally

1 comment:

  1. Get in there JOHNS SPIRIT, another winner!

    ReplyDelete