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Record of the blog selections

LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, at cumulative stakes of £5,726 - which has resulted in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 equivalent to a Return on Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 8 November 2013

Congratulations AP McCoy

A moment in horse-racing history was witnessed on Thursday with AP McCoy winning his 4000th race over the jumps at Towcester – and he did it with a trademark McCoy ride. Looking beaten on the run-up to the 2nd last, he kept his mount going and on a straight line where other jockeys may have given up and let their mount settle for an easy runners-up spot. Still not looking the most likely winner jumping the last flight, AP got to work on his mount and built-up some momentum to pass the leader with about 75 yards to go and cross the line with half-a-length to spare. What a remarkable achievement for AP McCoy, and this is from somebody who remembers Stan Mellor being the 1st jump jockey to ride 1000 winners way back in 1971 – and there was talk then of that feat never being repeated!
I sincerely hope that AP McCoy is granted a greater honour than his OBE (awarded in 2010) and, personally, I'd think it fitting if the man was knighted – Sir AP McCoy has a good ring to it.
Unfortunately, the day wasn't quite as successful for the blog, even if it was for me personally.  There was just the one runner from my horse alert list, VALID POINT, and had I been quicker off the mark with my blog and taken the early-doors 10/1 available in the morning, then I'd have certainly nominated him as an each-way selection. Frustratingly, he was freely available at up to 12.00 (approx. 11/1) on the exchanges minutes before the off, despite starting at an SP of 7/1. Re-reading my write-up yesterday, I can't believe that I didn't put him up as a selection, as he's now won 4 of his 5 races at Towcester. I did have a small stake on him myself personally, as I wrote on Twitter (my handle is @wayward_lad), but I'm kicking myself that I didn't make a recommendation to my blog followers. Admittedly, he only got up in the final strides to lead on the line and win by a head, and for much of the race he was held-up at the rear of the field. But that was always expected and, as I wrote yesterday, being a winner over 3-mile at Towcester with its notorious uphill run-in, he was always going to come with a rattle at the end. As such, I was surprised to see his odds drifting to the low 20's on the exchanges in-running. Putting him up as a selection yesterday would have been an early birthday present to my followers (I'm 54 years old today), and I just hope some of you had more strength of conviction than I. As I wrote earlier, I was on the horse on the exchanges taking advantage of the drift (courtesy of the market strength on the AP McCoy horse) and my £15 was on at an average of (just under) 11.00.
There are no alert list runners today, but there looks like being more than a few tomorrow. We have a couple of interesting meetings tho', at Hexham and Musselburgh and I'll give you my thoughts. At Hexham the going is soft, but I reckon it is more heavy than soft with a going-stick reading of 4.80. As such, stamina will be at a premium there. With this in mind, it may prove profitable to find proven stamina rich horses with form on heavy ground. One such is in the novice chase at 1:20 over 3-mile – Notonebuttwo. This horse is having his chase debut today, which has its own risks, but the horse has winning form as a hurdler over 3-mile on heavy. It is also trainer Chris Grants only runner at Hexham. An OR91 rating looks fair given his hurdle form and means he's carrying only 10st 7lb today. At current odds of 15/2 he looks an interesting wager to small money. At Musselburgh the ground is "good" and there is an interesting race at 3:35 which sees the return of Aikman to the track after a break of over 20-months. He's not shown the level of form over fences yet that he had as a hurdler and, as such, given the break he's had I'm wanting to oppose him. One that is fit and in-form is Diamond Frontier who won over this 2m4f trip at Kelso in April and, at 5/1, he could represent a bit of value for a small wager.
No recommended selections today but, as with yesterday, if the odds about those I've discussed – Notonebuttwo and Diamond Frontier – look like presenting a bit of value then it is up to you to take advantage. That is what happened with Valid Point yesterday with the disparity in odds between bookies and exchanges.
That's it for today – it's my birthday and I'm out for a good meal tonight at one of Brighton's better restaurants.

2 comments:

  1. Happy Birthday. Thanks for the time you spend on the blog. Always a good read with great insights. Regards Paul

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  2. Happy birthday Ian. Your blog postings so far this NH season have been really good. Always worth a read.

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