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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 11 January 2014
It's a free world
FILBERT has been on my alert list for some time and his win LTO confirmed the promise he'd shown earlier in his career. He runs at Wetherby in the 2:15 over 2-mile and while I'd prefer to see him running over a slightly longer trip, he looks well-in here. Of the others, the only one that I fear is Grey Gold who has run a couple of great races without winning and is a lot better than his OR138 rating but who looks like he needs heavy ground to show his best form. I think FILBERT will enjoy what should be a good pace, and have the speed and stamina to pick off the leader on the run-in as he did LTO. Odds of 13/2 with BetVictor are very generous, and 6/1 is generally available. I thought he'd by 4/1 for this, maybe shorter, as he's unexposed and there are question-marks over the trip or ground about the others.
Later at Wetherby, in the 3:25, we have an old horse-to-follow of mine a few seasons ago, FREE WORLD. This horse won LTO and trainer Lady Susan Brooke seems to have found his key. Rated OR153 at his peak with Paul Nicholls, he races off OR105 today having won off OR100 LTO. His form last season suggests that he should be capable of running to 120+ and I am surprised he's not the fav for this race. The actual fav Ravens Brook was left in the lead 4-out when he won LTO, and it is impossible to know how good he is, but I don't think he has the ability to beat FREE WORLD. Just compare the disparity of their speed ratings, and FREE WORLD has the highest speed rating in the race. Odds of 5/1 with BetVictor and Bet365 look very generous and I would even wager on this horse at under 3/1.
At Warwick, both AL ALFA and DOLATULO are on my alert list in the 1:55. Of the pair, I consider AL ALFA to hold the better chance, and he ran a great race LTO when 4th at Cheltenham. It is a big drop in trip today for him and he's only ever once before raced over 2-mile, and never before as a chaser, so it is an unknown. But, he could well outstay them all if trying to make-all.
The Betfred Classic Chase over 3m5f at Warwick at 3:35 looks wide-open. If the trip were under 3m1f then I'd have no hesitation about selecting LOCH BA, but this trip could well find him out. I do not think the form of Boyfromnowhere is good enough to take this, and I am more interested in SHOTGUN PADDY who is in tip-top form and will enjoy the ground and the trip today. At 17/2 with BetVictor, Stan James and Coral, he looks great eachway value.
Kempton has a tremendous 8-race card. I think Captain Chris will have to be at his best to win the 2:10 and at just 2/1 he's not value as he may not be able to repeat his best form of last season. Blog favourite FOXCUB runs in the 2:40 and it is a significant step-up in class. As such, he's 28/1 but, even so, I'm expecting a good run from the horse. Pity there is not 16 runners as I think he'll find a few too good for him. The 3:15 looks a good handicap chase. After winning LTO, I put Good Order on my alert list but this 3-mile trip may be too far for him. As such BUDDY BOLERO who is also on my alert list looks good value at 4/1. A repeat of his form when 2nd to Vintage Star at Carlisle should be good enough to beat Relax.
Kempton 3:15 BUDDY BOLERO, £10 win @ 4/1 (available generally)
Wetherby 2:15 FILBERT, £5 eachway @ 13/2 (available generally)
Wetherby 3:25 FREE WORLD, £10 win @ 5/1 (available generally)
Warwick 3:35 SHOTGUN PADDY, £5 eachway @ 17/2 with BetVictor, Stan James and Coral
Total staked = £40
All the best from Wayward Lad