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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 31 January 2014

Return of the Duke

Yesterday’s selection FORGOTTEN GOLD fell mid race. This was unfortunate as, from the end result which saw LTO winner Bennys Mist staying-on to take the race from the 11/1 chance Rouge Et Blanc, I’m sure had FORGOTTEN GOLD completed the race then he’d have been upsides the winner at the finish. Looking at how I read the race yesterday, I’m happy with my assessment as coming to the final fence there was not much in it between the 1st-2 and it was only a mistake by Rouge Et Blanc that handed the advantage to the winner. Also, as I suggested, Coolking ran a great race until lacking the stamina to see it thru’ and only just failed to take 3rd.

Later on the same card, the novice handicap chase went to Brick Red, and so provided another winner for trainer Venetia Williams. After a period of what looked a decline into a middle-ranking trainer from 2007 to 2012, she has bounced back to the top rank with 90 winners last season and she’s now on 53 winners this season. While still some way off the heady strike-rates achieved between 1997 to 2001 when she regularly hit over 26% of wins to runs, it seems (no doubt) that her Grand National win in 2009 with Mon Mome has brought her a new influx of owners and young horses which is now coming to fruition. BRICK RED was better suited by Wincanton than Newbury and, as sharper tracks seem to suit this horse best, he could be an OR145+ horse in the making. I did think the ratings for both Tresor De Bontee (OR122) and Close House (OR138) were on the high side, and so it proved.

Just a single jump race meeting today at Catterick.  There is a “jumpers bumper” meeting at Kempton to give horses a racecourse outing , but I am giving that a wide berth. The first couple of races on the card at Catterick are not my cup-of-tea being a selling hurdle and a juvenile hurdle. Then the 5-runner novice handicap chase at 2:10 looks very tricky to solve. The novice hurdle at 2:45 looks to be a “match” between Vice Et Vertu and Classic Move, so there’s no value to be found there.

The Class 3 handicap hurdle over 3m1f & 110 yards looks more interesting as although the fav Campbonnais won well over 2m4f LTO, it was only a Class 5 race. He may have been a decent 3-mile chaser a couple of years ago, but he’s lost his way since then and was never much to write home about as a hurdler. As such, I’d be happy to oppose him in this race, but what with? It is interesting that Duke Of Monmouth returns to hurdles after losing interest in chasing. As far as ability goes, he’s lost none judging by his win at Uttoxeter in November, so off a mark of OR118 which is just 1lb above his last winning hurdle rating (07Nov12 at Warwick over 3m1f on soft) he could be worth a wager.  Add the use of 1st-time blinkers and this could be an opportunity for DUKE OF MONMOUTH to run a lot better than his current odds of 22/1 (Stan James).

The next race on the card, a Class 3 handicap chase over 2m3f looks competitive. Chicklemix did me no favours LTO when beating my selection Free World, but the mare was hard-ridden to win that day and the 6lb hike to OR114 looks harsh. The fav is Pearls Legend needs to improve his jumping and I’ve also a feeling that his rating is a bit on the high side too, so he’s opposable. Billy Cuckoo ran well here LTO over C&D, but he needs things to fall right for him so he can win. That regular rider Dougie Costello has passed over the ride for stablemate Qoubilai is not a positive. The mare Kykate was going well and looking like winning when being brought-down 3-out LTO, and this slightly shorter trip will be in her favour. Granville Island is more of a 2-mile horse and soft ground does not bring the best out in him, and the same can be said for Arctic Ben, tho’ he does stay 2m4f. As such, KYKATE is the horse which I think is most likely to be in front at the finish unless the fav Pearls Legend gets his jumping together. Not an easy race and, at odds of 4/1, there’s no real value in KYKATE.

Catterick 3:20 DUKE OF MONMOUTH, £5 eachway @ 22/1 with Stan James (5th odds a place, best odds guaranteed)

Total = £10 staked

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