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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 8 January 2014

Trainers look for opportunity

Just the one jump race meeting at Doncaster today, and the ground there looks decent with good-to-soft forecast and only some light rain predicted. I expect that a fair number of trainers are now deciding to take every opportunity to race their horses prior to the Cheltenham Festival. The appalling weather that has struck Britain and Ireland over the past couple of weeks has certainly reduced the number of racing opportunities and, as I wrote earlier this week on the blog, this period between Boxing Day and Valentine's Day is when winners at the Festival have their final preparatory run.
As such, at Doncaster, we have a number of trainers making long trips from the south and south-west to get a race in. Nicky Henderson, Harry Fry, Emma Lavelle, David Pipe, and Tom George all make the long trip north. You also have to respect northern trainers like John Ferguson and John Quinn who both have top strike-rates at Doncaster. The opening maiden hurdle looks a race for the notebook with Nordic Quest and Namibian both likely to go on to the Festival in March. The 2nd division of this maiden hurdle is the 3rd race on the card and Nicky Henderson has an even stronger looking candidate for this in Act Alone. Last seen in May 2013, this could be a very interesting horse.
The 2nd race on the card, a class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m & 110 yards, see's John Quinn's only runner today Forced Family Fun. Quinn is 8 wins from 24 runners in hurdles over past 5 seasons and this 4yo who is lightly raced as a hurdler, having only his 4th race over hurdles today, could have a great chance off bottom-weight of 10st 7llb.  The biggest danger is top-weight Nesterenko sent by Nicky Henderson. A recent C&D winner in a fast time for the grade, he should guarantee a good pace.
I am not looking at the novice chase at 1:40, even tho' VICTOR HEWGO has been carried forward in my horse alerts from his hurdling exploits last season. Similarly, the novice hurdle at 2:10 looks a penalty-kick for Diamond King, and he's odds-on to take it.
The handicap chase at 2:45 over 3-mile looks interesting. Trainer Emma Lavelle has had 6 winners from her last 10 chase runners at Doncaster, but whether you can wager on her entry Global Warming who has never won a race under rules (13 starts) is debateable. When he won LTO, the 7yo IFYOUSAYSO went into my notebook. That was a good effort and the horse he beat that day went on to win next-time-out. The 8lb hike in the ratings to OR115 does not look enough for this horse who is having only his 3rd chase run today and current odds of 6/1 (with Coral) look generous. There is some support for the top-weight Triangular who has slipped to OR120 from OR140, but he was never that level of performer and 2m5f appears to be his best trip, not 3-mile.
I've not recommended a wager for some time, and my luck has run thin during December, but IFYOUSAYSO has a look of class about him and is unexposed as both a chaser and over this sort of trip.
Selection:
Doncaster 2:45 IFYOUSAYSO, £10 win @ 6/1 (Coral)

3 comments:

  1. We have a winner!
    IFYOUSAYSO holds off the opposition to win at an SP of 11/1, advised at 6/1 so £60 profit banked for the blog.
    It tops what could have been a cracking day as FORCED FAMILY FUN (only not advised as a selection as not on my alert list) won at 5/1; and ACT ALONE won at 7/2.
    There's always value to be had when reading the blog!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Great tipping once again and back in the groove in time for Cheltenham !

    ReplyDelete