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Record of the blog selections

Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 17 January 2014

Weather claims Chepstow

Yesterdays selection DENALI HIGHWAY was very disappointing and ran like he was not enjoying his day at the races at all. It was a stark reminder that horses are animals and not machines and, like us humans, they have their good days and their bad days. What we have to judge is what caused Denali Highway to throw-in the towel before they had run half-a-mile. My feeling is that it was the overall weather, which was near torrential rain in the morning resulting in a waterlogged course. As such, I am prepared to overlook this race and give Denali Highway another chance - only one mind. The winner was Bennys Mist who, as expected, handled the heavy ground well and, given the ease with which he dominated the race, was probably the only horse in the race that did handle the conditions. While Bennys Mist will always be worth a 2nd-look when racing on very heavy ground, he has now won 5 of his 7 races on heavy, he will need to improve on this effort again if he is to win again after being re-rated.

The weather has not only claimed the meeting at Chepstow today, but it has also claimed my day at the office. Flooding at Balcombe in mid-Sussex has stopped all trains, and the line is closed from Haywards Heath to Gatwick. As such, I'm at home today as I don't fancy a 3-hour journey to London via Littlehampton and Horsham, and probably the same again this evening to get home.

There is therefore just the one jumps meeting today at Musselburgh, and the card looks decent. I have no alert list runners today, so I'll take a look at the racing with a fresh eye. Trainer Sue Smith very rarely sends horses to Musselburgh, only 3 in the past 5 years of which 2 have won and she sends 3 here today with one in the opening race, Twice Lucky. However, Twice Lucky has only won once in 20 starts to I would not be running to take the 7/4 currently on offer, and the 2nd-fav Tears From Heaven (who won this race in 2012) could be the answer.

The Class 3 hurdle at 2:45 over 2-mile sees a couple of in-form trainers join Sue Smith with an entry: Donald McCain has Sud Pacifique, Brian Ellison has Stormy Weather and Discovery Bay, and Sue Smith has Groomed. The fav DISCOVERY BAY ran a cracker when 2nd over C&D to subsequent Ladbroke Hurdle winner Willows Saviour, and I would say that a repeat would be good enough. Also in the race is the useful Sky Khan who won in a canter when last seen on the track in August. The doubt about this one is that his trainer Richard Guest has not had a winner at Musselburgh in the past 5 years from 11 runners. Odds of 2/1 are not great about DISCOVERY BAY so I cannot recommend a wager.

The final race of interest today is the 3:20, a Class 3 handicap chase over 2m4f. This race has a fairly open look about it and, as such, I'd be prepared to oppose the fav Bar De Ligne. The one that catches my eye is the Aneyeforaneye who has been running over 3-mile recently without winning but who won a couple of races over this sort of trip last season and who has slipped to OR125 from OR132 in the process. Odds of 15/2 look very interesting.

No recommended selections today.

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