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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 17 January 2014
Weather claims Chepstow
The weather has not only claimed the meeting at Chepstow today, but it has also claimed my day at the office. Flooding at Balcombe in mid-Sussex has stopped all trains, and the line is closed from Haywards Heath to Gatwick. As such, I'm at home today as I don't fancy a 3-hour journey to London via Littlehampton and Horsham, and probably the same again this evening to get home.
There is therefore just the one jumps meeting today at Musselburgh, and the card looks decent. I have no alert list runners today, so I'll take a look at the racing with a fresh eye. Trainer Sue Smith very rarely sends horses to Musselburgh, only 3 in the past 5 years of which 2 have won and she sends 3 here today with one in the opening race, Twice Lucky. However, Twice Lucky has only won once in 20 starts to I would not be running to take the 7/4 currently on offer, and the 2nd-fav Tears From Heaven (who won this race in 2012) could be the answer.
The Class 3 hurdle at 2:45 over 2-mile sees a couple of in-form trainers join Sue Smith with an entry: Donald McCain has Sud Pacifique, Brian Ellison has Stormy Weather and Discovery Bay, and Sue Smith has Groomed. The fav DISCOVERY BAY ran a cracker when 2nd over C&D to subsequent Ladbroke Hurdle winner Willows Saviour, and I would say that a repeat would be good enough. Also in the race is the useful Sky Khan who won in a canter when last seen on the track in August. The doubt about this one is that his trainer Richard Guest has not had a winner at Musselburgh in the past 5 years from 11 runners. Odds of 2/1 are not great about DISCOVERY BAY so I cannot recommend a wager.
The final race of interest today is the 3:20, a Class 3 handicap chase over 2m4f. This race has a fairly open look about it and, as such, I'd be prepared to oppose the fav Bar De Ligne. The one that catches my eye is the Aneyeforaneye who has been running over 3-mile recently without winning but who won a couple of races over this sort of trip last season and who has slipped to OR125 from OR132 in the process. Odds of 15/2 look very interesting.
No recommended selections today.