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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Tuesday, 15 March 2011

2 selections, 2 winners y'day - today it's Cheltenham!

This is what we’ve been waiting for! The build-up for the Festival starts the moment the winner crosses the line for the final race on the Friday. Before we get into it, let’s recap yesterday’s blog selections and we got off to a flying start with RILEYEV winning in a canter at 6/4. Never in any danger, perhaps it should have been a stronger wager. Then, my other selection REMEMBER NOW - a half-brother of Binocular – made it 2 wins from 2 selections wining at an SP of 5/2. It was a tight photo-finish, but AP McCoy isn’t the winning-most jump jockey ever for losing out in a tight finish. That makes it 27 wins from 57 rides in hurdles this season for AP McCoy on Henderson horses.
Those 2 winners contributed another 2.50pts profit to the blog for the month, making the monthly total 10.90pts in profit (3 selections, 3 winners). Since 1st November 2010, from 50 selections there has been a profit made on 18 of them, which is a strike-rate of 36% (10 winners and 8 placed as eachway selections), with a cumulative profit of 17.505pts on an investment of 56pts; that’s an ROI of 31.25%.
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Let’s get straight into it.

Just 15 go to post which is the smallest field in years, so it looks as tho’ CUE CARD has scared them off. His form is rock solid, but I can’t say the same about Spirit Son, I’m not sure what he beat LTO. Dunraven Storm is held, and I don’t think Zaidpour will appreciate this going (didn’t on the flat). The Henderson 2nd-string Sprinter Sacre looks more interesting. But for me, its CUE CARD who I think should be 4/5 for this race. Of the others, the only mare in the race Magen’s Star will not be far away and may even go close. And the solid Recession Proof, winner of the Totesport Trophy, looks nailed on for a place. Bet365 and William Hill are paying 4 places (other bookies pay on 3) and the 22/1 for MAGEN’S STAR with Bet365 looks mighty generous if you want a play on this race. However, I will sit this race out.

So much for talk of this race being a weak renewal, I think we’ll see some of the best novice chasers in many a year in this race, and they’ll dominate the jumps season in 2011-12. For me, Captain Chris looks like a KGVI winner is ever I saw one as a novice; he’s not the same horse going left-handed at Cheltenham tho’. With 5 runs at Cheltenham and no wins, I am against Medermit, even tho’ I can see the horse winning a Tingle Creek at Sandown. I’ve been on GHIZAO since November and he’s followed in the footsteps of several of Paul Nicholls best novice chasers and done them no disrespect. I think this horse could be the best 2-miler we’ve seen in the Arkle since Well Chief. There, I’ve said it! There has been plenty said about his ordinary hurdles form, but the horse ran General Miller to a length at ‘levels’, and that horse beat Menorah at levels at Aintree – that looks half-decent hurdle form to me.
Long-term blog readers are already on GHIZAO with 1pt eachway @ 12/1 (on 23/11/2010) and 1pt win @ 6/1 (on 04/1/2011). As such, I cannot advise taking the current 4/1 on offer, but if you’ve not had a wager already, GHIZAO is the one I’d want to be on.

In the past, the key to this race has been last-time-out (LTO) winners, and horses carrying less than 11st. Of the last 8 renewals, 6 were won by LTO winners, and the highest weight carried by a winner was 10st 12lb. As such, despite the form credentials of the likes of Blazing Bailey (LTO winner with 11:12); Rare Bob (LTO winner with 11:10); Great Endeavour (11:7); Carole’s Legacy (11:5) and Bensalem (11:2), I feel the winner will come from those carrying under 11 stone. Were it not for the short odds of just 6/1, then I would consider Sunnyhillboy on 10:12 who was 2nd (btn by Great Endeavour) at the Festival last year. Remember tho' that the same connections won this race with Wichita Lineman at odds of 5/1 (huge gamble and AP McCoy considers this his best ever race winning ride). However, the stamina of Sunnyhillboy for this extended 3-mile race is not proven.
There are 3 at the bottom of the handicap that catch my eye: Adams Island on 10:6, The Rainbow Hunter on 10:5 and Wolf Moon on 10:0.
Wolf Moon is a LTO winner as well (big plus) and although he’s 6lb out of the handicap (effectively carrying 6lb more than he should) he won with so much in hand LTO that for me that is not a problem.
The Rainbow Hunter travels extremely well in his races and has been most unfortunate to meet a couple of well handicapped horses that have prevented him from winning his last 2 races. As such, he has not gone up the handicap quite as fast as he would have had he won those races. Also, he will have the benefit of a 7lb claim from his jockey Ed Cookson, so in effect he’s only carrying 9st 12lb. Both will stay every yard of the trip, and both will appreciate the going.
For me, Adams Island may well find this race a stretch of his stamina so, altho’ he has good form, he may find himself run out of in over the final half mile.
For me, THE RAINBOW HUNTER at 25/1 looks great eachway value and so does WOLF MOON at 12/1 (places 1,2,3,4 & 5 with Betfred).

Cheltenham 2:40, WOLF MOON, ½pt eachway @ 12/1
Cheltenham 2:40, THE RAINBOW HUNTER, ½pt eachway @ 25/1
(both wagers with Betfred, best odds guaranteed & 5 places)
Total = 2pts staked

Regular blog readers will be on PEDDLERS CROSS, 1pt eachway @ 14/1 (on 27/11/2010) and 1pt win @ 11/2 (on 17/2/2011). This horse is extremely exciting. Unbeaten, and a winner of the Neptune Hurdle in 2010, why he’s not fav I don’t know. The Irish will be on Hurricane Run, and he probably has the best formline here, but he’s not met a horse like PEDDLERS CROSS yet. Menorah is, for me, a bit of a wildcard. If the pace is muddling and it comes down to a 3f sprint from the 2nd-last flight then he is in the mix. I cannot have Dunguib, and if you’re looking for a bit of eachway value, Khyber Kim – 2nd in this last year and 12/1 this morning – could be for you. As I write, Stan James are 9/2 PEDDLERS CROSS and I’m having a top-up at those odds.

Cheltenham 3:20, PEDDLERS CROSS, 1pt win @ 9/2 with Stan James

Were it not for the presence of Maljimar on 10st 3lb, GARDE CHAMPETRE would be 2/1 for this, maybe even 7/4. He was beaten just a smidgeon here in the Autumn and comes here on the back of a pipe-opener of a win last month. Odds of 5/1 just cannot be ignored.

Cheltenham 4:00, GARDE CHAMPETRE, ½p eachway @ 5/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)

There is a lot of confidence behind Sparky May, but I cannot have her at just 7/2 with QUEVEGA in the field. However, she’s at odds of just 6/5 (William Hill) and that is too skinny for me. I’ll sit this race out.

This is a very compact handicap with just 8lb between top and bottom weights. As such, it looks incredibly open as a race and I would not be tempted to take under 10/1 about anything. For me, I’m looking at LTO winners and, of the 5 in the race, ROUGHAM has the perfect profile for this being a novice hurdler (and a decent one at that) last season, and he’s had just 4 chase runs. At odds of 20/1, this could be a good end to the day for the Hobbs/Johnson partnership who won this race last year with a similar horse in Copper Bleu. Nobody is going 5 places for this race, but you will have to be quick as the 20’s is going fast if you want to take it. This is another race that I’ll be sitting out.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

1 comment:

  1. Looks like we have both got the 1-2-3 sorted in the 2.40 good luck today