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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 30 March 2011
A 9/2 winner yesterday
Altho’ I did not offer a blog selection yesterday, the race I looked at (Taunton 4:20) went to COLD MOUNTAIN of whom I wrote; “Cold Mountain will love the going so, despite having been off the track since November, as long as he’s fit to race I reckon he’d do best of these. I can’t advise a wager without seeing him first to assess whether he’s fit or fat.“ I couldn’t put it any clearer, but COLD MOUNTAIN was certainly fit to do himself justice and he stayed on best to win at the rewarding odds of 9/2 – and it was a 4-horse race too!
A single jump meeting at Hereford today and it has some intriguing racing. The opener has Alan Kings Raya Star up against Nicky Henderson’s Dubai Crest; altho’ Gary Moore’s Swift Lord should not be ignored either. I’ve told readers before about the phenomenal strike rate when riding hurdlers that AP McCoy has with Henderson’s stable. He’s 27 wins from 62 hurdle races (44%), so is Dubai Crest a decent thing today? Not at 5/4. In fact, I’d agree with the RP betting forecast and make him a 5/2 chance. The reason being that Alan King is very effusive about RAYA STAR in this morning’s “Weekender” and states that the horse has been comprehensively schooled after falling in 2 of his last 3 hurdle races. Currently at 7/2, that looks fair value.
The 2:40 looks very weak, and altho’ I can’t see one in the race worthy of support the fav Chicago Alley hasn’t hurdled in 16 months and wasn’t much good at it then even when fit from chasing. So, coming back off a long break looks a monster task.
The Novice chase at 3:10 see’s one of my Festival selections – QUARTZ DE THAIX – return to the track. Altho’ not having tried a trip of 3-mile-plus, QUARTZ DE THAIX has not run as tho’ he would not stay this far, whereas the fav Balthazar King has run 3-mile and further 8 times and only won once. But at just 6/4, this is one for those who like short prices.
The 4:10 has an odds-on fav in E Street Boy who won 3-days ago. Even tho’ the market is 8/1 bar the rest, I’m not tempted to look for an eachway selection.
The 4:40 has another short-priced fav in Bertenbar, but I am more interested in top-weight PAPRADON. He did not stay the 21f trip LTO, and this drop back to 2-mile will suit this prominent runner who could lead all the way. I’m not sure that a drop in trip will suit Bertendar tho’ as he’s never run at the minimum trip in 14 previous races, nor has he shown any speed to suggest it’ll suit him either. Going right-handed will also suit PAPRADON and the stable has its horses in far better form than those at Henrietta Knights stable. Only 7/2 available, which is fair but I’d be hoping for perhaps 4/1 before I’m tempted.
No selections today, tho’ readers might be interested in a small stakes win “patent” (3 doubles and a treble) on those named; RAYA STAR, QUARTZ DE THAIX and PAPRADON, all at Hereford.
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