There was a bit of feedback about the blog yesterday on the rating awarded by RPR to LONG RUN for his Gold Cup win. Some have suggested that I am trying to rubbish the race – that is not the case. What I am trying to do is establish the level of performance. My opinion if that 183 is too high a rating, but my own evaluation of the form at 170 is still very good.
In 2006, War Of Attrition’s Gold Cup win was rated 173; Kicking King in 2005 was rated 177; Best Mate in 2004 was rated 172.
Being just a 6yo, it is likely that there is some improvement to come from LONG RUN as he matures. For instance, Best Mate improved about 10lb on his performances as a 6yo to his Gold Cup winning performance as a 7yo, and then improved again as an 8yo. Do we really think that LONG RUN could be 195+ as an 8yo chaser?
I have already started research on my Festival 2011 dossier. I’m not sure whether to publish the final report on the blog “free to all” as I did with my Festival 2010 dossier, or to make it available only to those who are prepared to pay for it. Preparation of the dossier is a considerable effort (but well worth it in my opinion) and, as I have plenty of time on my hands at the moment (if you get my drift), and financial remuneration for my efforts would be welcome.
The results yesterday were not good reading, so it was fortunate that there was no firm blog selection nominated. At Lingfield tho’, I did take advantage of the Anna Newton-Smith winner Goring One, who won in commanding fashion and is another advert for the talents of his trainer whose base is at Jevington near Eastbourne. She must always be taken seriously when she runs one at her local tracks of Lingfield, Plumpton, Folkestone or Fontwell.
There are a couple of jump meetings today at Kempton and Exeter.
At Kempton in the 3:15, Basford Bob makes a quick reappearance after finishing 2nd last Saturday over 2m7f at Uttoxeter, but he’s proving difficult to win with. The pace will be set by Henry King in this and that should suit Basford Bob who is in receipt of 12lbs from Henry King, but I am more taken with the Alan King runner Romulus D’Artaix. He didn’t seem to handle Taunton LTO, but his run before that was very promising and the form has worked out. King has his stable firing at the moment and he has a good strike rate at Kempton with his hurdlers. At 11/2, he looks the value in this race.
Later, in the 4:25 previous successful blog selection Rileyev runs. He again looks hard to find fault with off OR107, but the ‘good’ going will suit topweight Betabob more and he won’t make life easy for Rileyev and so I cannot have him at 9/4. For me, BETABOB @ 11/2 (Sportingodds) looks the value in this as he is sure to run his race, and I reckon he’s more of a 7/2 chance.
At Exeter, I can’t see anything worthy of a wager.
KEMPTON 4:25, BETABOB, ½pt eachway @ 11/2 (Sportingodds, 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
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