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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 25 March 2011

A re-assessment of 'Value'

When I sit down and go thru’ the horseracing cards of a morning, the objective is to try and find a runner which has a decent chance of winning on known form, yet who’s odds are significantly longer than that chance. In other words, a value selection. The reasoning behind a value selection betting strategy is that if you can accurately assess the chances of a horse then – long term – you will not lose, and you should make long term profits from gambling.

I thought both yesterday’s selections were “value” selections. In the case of FREEZE UP my assessment was based on the weakness of the favourite, Strongbows Legend, in that his rating did not represent the value of his form, and his trainer (Charlie Longsdon) had such a poor record (0 from 21) at the track. With questionmarks over all the other in the race too, FREEZE UP merely had to repeat the form he’d shown when trained by David Pipe to be involved. He didn’t, and actually was the first horse beaten, which was really disappointing. I was right about the fav at least, as tho’ Strongbows Legend looked the likely winner 2-out, he was out-stayed by the novice chaser Oscar Prairie. My other selection BENE LAD ran a much more promising race, but he was beaten by the improving You Know Yourself who has now won 3 of the 5 chase races that he’s run in. It was certainly the 5lb claim that Shane Byrne has that won the race for You Know Yourself. Byrne is a rider worth his claim and trainer Sue Smith uses him to advantage – he’s now won on 11 of the 47 chase rides for Smith this season.

While I am always on the search for value, a recent run of poor results on the blog has meant that I am reappraising the races I’m wagering in, and how I’m selecting the horses to wager on. I touched on this a little last week when I thought that I was looking so hard for “value” that I was missing fairly ‘obvious’ winners. Basically, I couldn’t see the ‘wood’ for the ‘trees’!

There are 2 jump meetings today at Sedgefield and Newbury.
There is nothing whatsoever that interests me at Sedgefield.
There are a couple of interesting races at Newbury, but they are very tightly priced-up already. I’ve been looking mainly at the handicap chase at 2:40 and there are a couple that may appreciate this trip of 2m6½f such as Max Bygraves and Ravethebrave, but there is no value in this race.

No selections today.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

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