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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday, 18 April 2011
There were some great ‘highs’ such as nominating BALLABRIGGS as 1 of 3 National selections on the day (but he was the only selection nominated as a “win” wager), but there is room for improvement. For instance, more consideration will be given to stakes placed during the summer months, to reflect confidence behind the selection. I am also aware that some visitors are not comfortable with the ‘points’ system of staking. So, along with the points system, I will be advising what wagers I am actually placing in cash terms. I operate on £40 a point, so a ½pt eachway wager is £20 eachway.
I am also aware that there are many ways to make a profit on the exchanges these days, and to help readers take advantage when I spot an opportunity to “lay” a horse before the off, or in-running, or to “back-to-lay”, or an antepost opportunity whereby you can back and then lay-off the wager before the race has even been run for a “free” wager, then I’ll do so. I will also continue to provide the narrative (even tho’ there are some people who criticise me for so). It has to be appreciated that when I write the blog I may not have all the information to hand to allow me to recommend a firm wager. For instance, the weather forecast may predict a chance of rain which may turn the going from “good” to “soft” and going changes WILL affect how a race will be run and the eventual result.
Onto todays racing which provides Jump racing at Exeter and Towcester, and Flat racing at Redcar and Windsor. The meeting at Exeter looks dire, altho’ the opening “seller” may provide an opportunity. The morning fav was the ex-Stoute trained RHYTON, but he’s been supplanted by Jewellery. There has also been some support for Emerald Glade who ran well LTO until feeling the effects of a return off a long break. For me, this race revolves around the good-to-firm going. Jewellery has never acted on it, on flat or jumps. Emerald Glade has, but that was a lowly class 6 h’cap off OR54. RHYTON was much more impressive on the flat when winning his 2nd start at Pontefract on good-to-firm over 12f when he showed plenty of guts to battle back from what looked like an impossible position. RHYTON is now 9/4 (from 7/4) and is looking value. Racing is not much better at Towcester, so I’ll give that meeting a miss.
The Flat season form needs to settle down a bit before I start recommending wagers. What I am doing is studying the results and putting together a list of horses that I consider are well handicapped. Hopefully, that will provide me (and readers of the blog) with a steady stream of profits from a limited number of wagers throughout the season. There is an interesting 6f race ar Redcar at 4:20, and the fav Dark Lane is a horse that has not progressed as was expected since he won in May 2009. He does seem to run best on his return off a long break, and that puts me off him today as he won LTO just 7-days ago. Normally, I go for horses coming back to the track within 7-days of a win, but not today. The 2nd fav Arrys Orse looks harshly treated to me on OR83 as he “earned” that rating when winning his 2nd start at Lingfield over a year ago. Nothing behind his that day has turned out since to give merit to the rating of Arrys Orse, so I’ll pass him over. 3rd fav Jarrow has never won on turf in 12 starts – but has 2 wins on the AW from just 4 starts! That should tell you where he likes racing, and bring you to the next in the market, DOCTOR PARKES. Off since last September, he’s won before off a long break and on good-to-firm going. He also ran a cracker when 2nd (btn ½ a length) on good-to-firm over 6f last May. He ran consistently well without getting his head in front all summer, mainly in class 3 handicaps, so this drop in grade to class 4 looks an easy introduction to the season. At 8/1 with Ladbrokes , he looks the value.
I like Windsor as a course for a wager, but I can’t see anything there this evening to interest me.
There are no blog selections today, but I would not put you off having small wagers on RHYTON and DOCTOR PARKES if you feel in need to have a wager. I will be having £10 win on RHYTON at 9/4 (or longer if I can get it), and £5 eachway on DOCTOR PARKES.
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Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
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