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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Thursday, 28 April 2011
Close - but no cigar!
A couple from my personal HTF list did not run well at all. MAGIC CITY may well have met a very decent filly in MISS WORK OF ART as she was the better horse on the day – no excuses. The time was not spectacular tho’. Prior to the race, I thought HEZMAH would slay the doubts over her ability to stay a mile, but she didn’t and found zip when asked inside the 2f marker. MADANY ran well considering the going was not in her favour. Why she was subject of a market move from 5/1 in to 3/1 is beyond me. She is not up to this standard (Listed) of race, but a drop back to a class 2 handicap on good-to-soft may see her in the winner’s enclosure.
Of my selections; CRITICAL MOMENT was outpaced mid-race and may well have needed the run. Even so, he’s not Group 1 potential on this form, despite his entries this summer. I thought AKMAL ran a great race and 2f-out I thought he’d go on and win it. However, ASKAR TAU returned to the form of 2009 when he won the Doncaster Cup beating subsequent Cesarewitch winner Darley Sun (gave him 16lb that day). He never got the fast ground he loves in 5 subsequent races, but clearly improved for his seasonal debut at Nottingham on 6th April over an inadequate trip (14f). Given the question marks over the markets leaders ability to stay the trip (Rite Of Passage excluded, but will he run?) the antepost odds of 20/1 (Hills & Chandlers) for the Ascot Gold Cup looks very inviting, as ASKAR TAU will have his going then and is now proven at the track and we know he stays well beyond 2-mile. ANTIGUA SUNRISE was running like a winner 2f-out but unfortunately her jockey (7lb claimer George Chaloner) tried to find a way thru’ on the rails and there was none. Pulled-out to go round, the jockey allowed the horse to wander and lost momentum, but when he got her balance back she ran on well. That’s the risk you take with ‘claimers’. Even so, I’ll take comfort from the fact that ANTIGUA SUNRISE looks on a decent mark of OR80 and if kept to 10f she’ll recoup the loss.
Not much racing to write home about today, but the Suroor/Dettori partnership make a rare visit to Bath. They feature on SAHAFH in the 2:40 class 5 ‘stakes’ race for 3yo’s over a mile. When last seen, SAHAFH ran a stinker, but her run at Kempton on the AW last July was a decent effort when 2nd over 7f. She led briefly inside the final furlong that day and the winner is now rated OR95. Suroor is making his usual slow start to the season, but 5 of his 6 winners at Bath (last 5 seasons) have come from just his 3yo’s of which he’s sent 10 – that’s a 50% strike-rate. If the horse wasn’t worth persevering with, the Godolphin would have sold it off, so 4/1 looks fair as a speculative punt. I’ll give the meeting at Brighton a miss (it’s not one of my favourite tracks).
At Perth, it’s the 2nd day of their Festival and Tom George will try and follow-up his winner yesterday with his only runner today, Lexicon Lad; but it’s a leap of faith as he’s not won a race before and he’s untried beyond 2m5f. I’m more interested in Nicky Richards as he’s sent 2, but one is a no-hoper, which leaves PREMIER DANE. He’s won twice at Perth back in 2008, then had a short break before being outclassed in a couple of hot novice chases in early 2009. Since then he’s been hurdling, but returned to chasing with his run LTO at Ayr. He ran a cracker in that race over 2m4f and he’s been dropped 2lb to OR118. What I can’t understand is why Safari Adventures is 7/1 for this as good going and 2m4f are his perfect conditions. This going will be too quick for Storymaker, and I am happy to oppose the fav in this as he’s been raised 18lb for his win LTO.
I’ll give the Hereford meeting a miss.
Do I have a selection for today? No, is the answer. If you look to the left of the screen you will see I’ve added a new page called 2011 – Flat Racing Notebook. From now on (till Arc de Triomphe day in October) the blog will be focussing on Flat Racing selections only. I’ll be aiming at finding well-handicapped or under-rated horses and following them when they next run. Not all will be included in the “Notebook”, as otherwise it may become too large. I’m working on that one – what I may do is have just a list of names with dates of blog-pages were you can find the write-ups. Whatever, I am trying to cut down on the time spent writing the blog and put more time into form-study.
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Thanks from Wayward Lad