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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Tuesday, 19 April 2011
Fallon to HOOF IT at Pontefract?
No “firm” blog selections advised, but the horse highlighted in the only flat race discussed – DOCTOR PARKES – came home a good winner at an SP of 11/2 (odds of 8/1 advised on the blog were available for a good couple of hours after posting). As such, I made £40 profit to the stakes I wrote I was wagering yesterday (I actually placed a fair bit more on each of them – but that’s my business). DOCTOR PARKES was very consistent last season, and I think he can be followed.
The other horse mentioned on the blog RHYTON, ran well and when he went clear at the 3rd-last I was counting my winnings! It was not to be as, despite touching 1.60 in-running on Betfair, he went out like a light after hitting the 2nd last hurdle. That said, he is better than this result as when he learns to hurdle properly (he either bunny-hopped over them, or clattered thru’ them) he will be half-decent. Watch him winning his 2nd (and final) start at Pontefract on good-to-firm over 12f and try and tell me he can’t win a 2-mile hurdle.
At Windsor, there was an interesting 6f h’cap won by Spanish Bounty. Robert Gibb who blogs at http://becherbrook.blogspot.com/ spotted that he’d dropped a long way in the handicap from OR90 this time last year, to OR75. Back in 2009, he ran several times off OR95 and this 5-length win suggests he’s well up to repeating that form this summer. Robert managed to get 28/1 about Spanish Bounty and he opened at 14’s on-course, before eventually having an SP of 7/1. There was some money made on this race by connections, I’m sure of it. Personally, I passed-over Spanish Bounty as I thought the “value” had gone (wrong!) and went instead for Hand Painted who came in 3rd at 8/1 (I was on at 11/1 eachway). Alongside the winner (who should run to +90 NTO) there are a couple to take from this race; HAND PAINTED who on good or GF going and a 6½f or 7f trip looks weighted to win, and the runner-up MYMUMSAYSIMTHEBEST who looks on a very lenient rating of OR70 and despite being a 6yo, this was only his 9th race (he has been off thetrack nearly 4 years in 2 separate injury spells). The only downside was the time for this race, and it may be that the going wasn’t quite as quick as stated (good-to-firm).
Today we have a jump race meeting at Fontwell, plus flat (turf) meetings at Pontefract and Bath. There are also a couple of AW meetings – but I’m not into the AW racing. I’ve had a quick glance at Fontwell and, not surprisingly, I’m passing it over.
At Pontefract there is a decent card, with 2 races in particular to look out for; the 6f Class 2 h’cap at 3:10 and the Pontefract Marathon over 2m5f & 122 yards at 3:40. The 6f race looks competitive and is the focus of a couple of blogs; Sprinterstogo (http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.com/) and Bet Buddy (http://betbuddy.mobi/). I have seen many races going to front-runners at Pontefract over trips under a mile, and that puts the fav HOOF IT in the driving seat in my opinion – altho’ the likes of Tombi and Flipando (amongst others) will make it a race with plenty of pace.
I’ve had a soft spot for the Pontefract Marathon for a few years now and this sort of race can usually be targeted as there won’t be many contenders with realistic chances. The fav Descaro, has potential to improve on his LTO winning performance, but he’ll have to, to hold-off Markington provided the latter is race-fit. One that may spring a surprise is Dan Buoy who was very keen LTO, but he had been off the track since last November. If he settles in front, then he may be hard to catch as he does stay 3-mile over hurdles well.
I’ve had a look at the meeting at Bath and nothing looks exciting here either, so another one to give a miss to.
Do we have a selection? HOOF IT has all the elements of being a selection, but there are a few doubts too. He didn’t win his opening race of last season (was 8th of 12) and altho’ he’s won on fast going he does look like he does his best work when he gets proper “good” going. Don’t forget this is 6f and he was well beaten over 6f (and 7f) last year at York – altho’ he finishes his races as tho’ he’ll stay 6f easily. If you can get 7/2, then he will be worth a small wager (eg, £10 win) but he does not have enough going for him to be a “firm” blog selection.
As such, no recommended wagers today.
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