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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Tuesday, 26 April 2011
The search for winners
One horse that I watched on Saturday was AULD BURNS but, even tho’ he was 3rd in his race, he looked ordinary and will likely struggle back in handicaps as he’s not “Listed” class based on this run. Later that afternoon, another I was hoping to see CLUB OCEANIC, was a non-runner.
With the amount of Flat racing that will take place over the next few months, I’m going to change my approach to winner-finding slightly from that used for the Jumps racing. For the past couple of Flat seasons I’ve used a combination of trainer-form stats and basic form-study to find horses that I consider are “well thought of” by connections. For instance, in May 2009 Richard Hannon sent only 3 horses to the entire Chester “May” meeting, including Cyflymder. Altho’ drawn well for his race, a 6f handicap (4 of 11), he was held-up at the rear before making his effort along the rails. As could be expected, he struggled to get a clear run, but still managed to be a close 4th. Next time out, Cyflymder won at 10/1, and he also won his next 2 races at odds of 11/2 and 5/1 and in all 3 of those races he was either prominently ridden or made all. He was only beaten a neck in his next race when the handicapper finally caught up with him. What made me sit-up and notice him was that from a stable of 200+ horses, Hannon took only 3 to Chester (he had a single runner on each of the 3-days) and he has a fairly good record there too.
So, I am trawling thru’ the racing results published in the Weekender of a Wednesday, putting together a list of horses that I consider are well handicapped.
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