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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 10 January 2012
Don't Push It retired
No selection yesterday for the blog, but my appraisal of the 2:10 at Taunton – a 2m7f handicap chase – wasn't far off the mark.
As I wrote, I fully expected the front 2 in the market; Rangitoto (SP 5/2) and Master Fiddle (SP 6/4), to be set a searching task by others in the race who may not have the raw ability, but had solid chasing experience – and so it proved. Rangitoto was the first to crack, falling when under pressure at the 12th fence, and Master Fiddle blundered badly at the next – a mistake from which he could not recover. That left the couple I had highlighted on this blog, Vino Griego and Time For Spring disputing the lead along with eventual winner Made In Time. I overlooked Made In Time as he'd lost his rider in his 2 previous races, the first of which was in the same race that Master Fiddle had unseated, back on 26th November. His next start was in the same race that Time For Spring came 2nd in on 21st December. That day he was made the 9/4 fav when in-receipt of 1lb from Time For Spring (SP 3/1), but lost his rider at just the 3rd fence. Time for Spring was raised 5lb for that promising run, which was a tad harsh in my opinion considering he didn't win and, as such, Made In Time met Time For Spring on 5lb better terms yesterday. Given the benefit of this hindsight, it seems reasonable to think that Time for Spring should not have been sent off at an SP of 8/1 as, so long as his jumping held up, with the 5lb pull he had definite prospects prior to the race of beating Time For Spring (SP 6/1). Made In Time is relatively unexposed as a chaser and this performance suggests that a fair bit of improvement could still be to come from this progressive chaser.
One of the more recent developments is the lack of confidence behind Paul Nicholls stable runners during weekdays. Put it this way, when I was in my local betting shop last Friday, one of the dishevelled regulars came out with the statement "don't bet on Nicholls runners on weekdays" – and this bloke looked like he'd have trouble pulling-up his trousers after having a dump! As they say about the stock market, when taxi drivers start telling you to buy, it's time to sell, and I reckon the same could be said about Paul Nicholls. Yes, all 4 he sent to the races yesterday were beaten and none started at longer than 4/1, but I'd say it could pay to be a bit less circumspect about his runners in the next 8 or 9 weeks in the run-up to the Festival.
Thinking of the Festival, it's time to start preparing an antepost portfolio, or at least considering one. For the past 5 years I've put together wagers of 3 or 4 horses in mainly the championship races in the hope of making a killing, but one of my selections has always let me down leaving me with just the place-odds scraps. With surprise results unlikely to happen in either the Champion Hurdle, Gold Cup, World Hurdle or Champion Chase (it would not surprise me to see all 4 champions win again), I'm going to be looking at the Ryanair and the 3 novice chase championship races (Arkle, Jewson, RSA) for my speculative "yankee".
There is a huge amount of decent reading material available on horseracing blogs on the web, so much that I found a really interesting series of articles on professional gamblers (I enjoyed reading about Clive Holt) which I found via a link on twitter – but now I don't know where to find it again. If you posted the links on twitter, or you know who did, either send me the link again via twitter on @wayward_lad or post the link in my comments box. These professional gambler articles are well worth reading.
Nothing much doing today in the racing world. There is just the one horse from my alert list running; Valid Point at Leicester in the 3:10, which is a 2m7f & 110 yards novice chase with just 4 runners. He's having his chasing debut this afternoon, tho' his trainer Jim Old is best with his staying hurdlers. However, he has run several times this season over hurdles so comes here race-fit, and he'll stay this trip with ease. I feel for trainers like Jim Old as he has not lost the ability to prepare a decent horse, indeed he prepared Collier Bay to win the Champion Hurdle in 1996. He doesn't have many runners these days but, even so, pay attention when he does. VALID POINT is currently 10/1 with Vic Chandler and Bet65 and while Baile Anrai is a worthy favourite, I wouldn't have him as an "evens" chance. With both Soir Destruval (100/30) and Larks Lad (4/1) still having it to prove over fences despite having the benefit of chasing experience, I'd have VALID POINT more like 4/1 (on the basis that he's race-fit and will stay the trip) with Baile Anrai at 7/4.
No selection today, but I'll be watching this race with interest.
I've also heard the news that Grand National winner Don't Push It has been retired. He ran a great races both in 2010 when he won and last April when he was 3rd.
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