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Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Tuesday, 31 January 2012

Walsh 48% strikerate for Nicholls at Taunton

The 428th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

We have a couple of meetings over the jumps today; at Taunton and Folkestone – the latter survived an overnight frost scare, but the weather wasn't as bad as forecast.

There is nothing much doing at Folkestone, but the Paul Nicholl's novice chase MERRION SQUARE in the 2:20 could merit some attention. There has been plenty said & written about Nicholl's not being interested in weekday meetings and being just a "Saturday" trainer this season. Personally, I think that is more down to circumstances than anything else. He has a lot of highly rated horses but very few to choose from at the bottom of the handicap – and let's be fair, most weekday racing during the winter months is dire stuff. Throw-in the fact that Nicholl's horses are "over-bought" whether they are in form or not, and you have the scenario were a horse is being sent after a race for which it probably isn't best suited and – due to the fact it's from the Nicholl's stable – is being sent-off at an SP of 3/1 rather than 6/1, and then punters are complaining when it run like a 6/1 chance. Maybe I'm being simplistic, but whenever I can (and, for me, no day is different) I try and always oppose Nicholl's runners. However, today may not be a day for opposition.

With Ruby Walsh making a rare mid-week riding appearance for Nicholl's on a couple of his at Taunton, most notably SANTUAIRE in the 2:40, I think the winning pointer MERRION SQUARE will prove a little bit of value in making the long trip to Folkestone from deepest Somerset. Current odds of 5/2 (available generally)about MERRION SQUARE look fair.

As for SANCTUAIRE, I've been expecting this horse to pop-up in a decent handicap hurdle as he's been running well enough to merit attention in defeat in my book. Several books go 11/8 (chandlers, Ladbrokes) and with the race conditions in his favour should he jump with any ability he should see-off this ordinary field without any problem. Personally, with Ruby Walsh taking the ride I thought he'd be odds-on for this.

I cannot advise either as a win wager as both fall below my odds-for-a-wager cut-off point of 3/1, and also both are making their chasing debut under rules – but it would not surprise me to see both of the come home easy winners.

No selections for today's racing.

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