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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 13 January 2012
Raise a glass to an old friend
I've not posted a blog for a couple of days as I received the very sad news on Wednesday morning that a very dear friend of mine who I'd known for nearly 20 years had died aged just 51. It really upset me for a number of reason, not least because such an incident caused me to question my own life and mortality as my friend Grahatm was the first person of my own generation to die. It was no age at which to go, and Graham was 7 months younger than me, but at least I know he died having just come off the pitch fresh from a game of football and amongst friends. I'll raise a glass to him.
Horseracing this coming weekend looks fairly ordinary. First tho' I'd like to advise readers to take note of WAYWARD PRINCE who I reckon could be worth a wager NTO. He was unable to get into contention in the Hennessey, but he ran good race in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day to be 4th and had had the good fortune to be dropped 4lb by the handicapper. He could well take advantage of his revised handicap rating soon.
Today, there are jumps meetings at Huntingdon and Musselburgh. For a Friday, it is disappointing fare and the only horse that catches my eye is Bohemian Rock in the 2:50 at Huntingdon. He won at Towcester on 15th December over 2-mile, but didn't follow-up on Boxing Day at the same course. That was over 2m3½f and while I'm not sure that the trip contributed to his defeat that day, it was probably responsible for the distance he was beaten. Today's trip is 2m & ½f and that should be in his favour, as will going right-handed. I cannot recommend him as a firm wager, but he may be interesting for a small punt if you can get 4/1 or longer.
The meeting at Musselburgh is more interesting, especially the Kilmany Cup Chase over 3-mile at 3:10. The obvious one to go for is the top-weight Key Cutter following his LTO win, and trainer Paul Webber makes a rare trip north of the border. However, he'll need to give 18lb to ROSSINI'S DANCER who is a course winner and has also won over 2m7f at Kelso. Sue Bradburne's 7yo still has time on his side to find further improvement and, given that most of these are well exposed, he looks value at 6/1 for this.
For those who have made donations to the blog over the past 12 months, I will be sending out an email with an antepost advice for the Cheltenham Festival. I'm hoping to get it out this evening so that you are able to take advantage on Saturday morning. The point with antepost wagers is to endeavour to obtain odds that are significantly greater than what you might expect on the day of the race about your selection. At that point you then have a choice to either "let it ride" or to lay-off your stake on the exchanges and have a risk-free wager on the selection, or to hedge your bet by wagering on another in the race.
I read a comment in this week's "Weekender" column by Tom Segal (Pricewise) that I don't agree with. He writes "the formbook always gets turned on its head at every Cheltenham and this year will be no different". Sorry, I cannot agree with that statement at all as I find the form at Cheltenham is usually solid – the hard part is sorting the wheat from the chaff!
Hopefully, there will be a fuller blog tomorrow, but the racing looks ordinary and uninspiring.
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