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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 5 January 2012
Murphy pulling a flanker?
No blog yesterday, and so no selections.
It was a busy morning at the office so no time to spend on studying the form in depth. I had a few runners from my alert list and they were Heather Royal (won @ 4/9) Kudu Country (2nd beaten a short-head @ 6/4) and Dusky Bob (2nd @ 16/1).
In hindsight, it would have been a good, profitable blog yesterday.
Heather Royal managed to scrape home at odds-on; and I had a personal wager on KUDU COUNTRY at 9/4 in the morning. I knew that should it come down to a straight speed test in the run-in that the race-fav Eradicate would prevail as he was the better hurdler (by about 20lbs), but I hoped that the jumping ability of KUDU COUNTRY would be enough to win him the race. As it happened it nearly did as Eradicate was floundering under pressure and I would not want to support him on a track with stiffer fences than Southwell.
As for Dusky Bob, I could not understand why he was 20/1 in the morning and started with an SP of 16/1. Readers may remember that I had a fortunate winner in Monsieur Jourdain on 23rd Nov when Dusky Bob fell at the final fence when about to gain the upper hand. That race was over 2m6f and suggested to me that his stamina limit is probably 2m5f and he empties out quickly when going beyond that, hence it was no surprise to me that he failed miserably over 3-mile when last seen on the track at Ascot on 17th December. Yesterday, he was dropped in trip to an extended 2m5f and he ran much more up to his best form. The horse is consistent and handles going from "good" thru' to "soft" and, at trips up to 2m5f, in this grade he should always be considered.
Just the one horse on my alert list runs today, GOING WRONG at Sedgefield in the 2m chase at 1:10. Now, this horse needs 2m4f at least, probably 2m6f, and he was most fortunate LTO when benefitting from the fall of the runaway leader. Much as I like the horse, I cannot help but think that Ferdy Murphy is pulling a flanker here with the horse. In running it, he's keeping the horse race-fit but, as it's a race that it is most unlikely to run well in let alone win, he is protecting it's handicap mark. In my opinion, he's aiming this horse at one of the Cheltenham Festival handicaps as this horse is well handicapped over both hurdles and fences at trips beyond 2m5f.
I received a comment from "The Horseman" regarding my latest blog. I cannot shed any new light on the situation regarding the demise of the Becher Brook blog or it's author. It was an unfortunate occurrence when someone succumbed to temptation and it was a lesson that we are all capable of being "groomed" on the internet by potential fraudsters. Had I met someone down the betting shop who said they had a horse they were syndicating and would I give them £120 for a 2½% share and £35 a month for its keep, I would have sent them away with a flea in their ear. As the offer came via the internet from someone who I considered a twitter "friend", then more fool me for dropping my guard.
There are no guarantee's in this life and we should all be questioning who we trust and who we should not. I for one would now not send hundred's of pounds to a blogger who says I can have their tips for 12 months at a discount if I pay in advance. When I pay for information, I pay on a daily weekly or monthly basis and always start with the minimum period first.
I don't charge for my advice on this blog at all, and I only ask for a contribution from any successful wagers readers of this blog may have on the basis of what they have read here - much in the way most people leave a tip when they pay the bill at the end of a good meal.
Despite there being 3 jumps meetings today, I can't find a decent wager today so my money is staying in my pocket.
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