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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday, 9 January 2012
Qhilimar almost does it at 22/1
It was a disappointing performance from the blog selection on Saturday.
I hoped that PASCO would be good enough to win his race as he's run
consistently well at this sort of trip over the past couple of seasons
(without winning) but it was not to be. The race winner was Consigliere,
a horse that I have followed since he won a decent handicap chase at
Newbury over that tracks odd 2m1f trip off OR135. He had been racing
well without winning at ratings of OR145+ so having slipped top OR136 he
was worthy of some interest. What put me off him was that he's never
looked like staying trips beyond 2m3f well enough to win, so perhaps on
Saturday he found himself in a weak race on going that he enjoyed
(predominantly soft). He is not a horse that I would want to be on again
at this sort of trip once he's been re-rated as we'll probably see him
next at the Cheltenham Festival in a handicap over 2m5f. He will run
well there as he appreciates the track, but the going will be too quick
for him, most likely.
My other selection GALLOX BRIDGE was fading when falling and perhaps he ran a bit too free. I'll keep him on my alert list for another chance NTO.
I gave a big plug on Saturday's blog for QHILIMAR in the feature race at
Sandown as he was a C&D winner who would enjoy the going. I had no idea that he'd set the pace as I expected him to sit just behind the leaders,
nor did I expect his odds to drift from 18/1 in the morning to an SP of
22/1. As I wrote in my blog, I thought he was a 7/1 chance and therefore
he held a decent chance of being placed in what looked a competitive
race. To be fair, a couple of the market leaders didn't perform well,
but he should never have gone off at 22/1 and in hindsight I should have
had a point eachway on him rather than the two win wagers on the other
We have a half decent meeting for a Monday at Taunton, with what looks
to be an attractive race at 2:10. The market is headed by Nicky
Henderson's Master Fiddle @ 7/4 , with Paul Nicholls' Rangitoto a
short-priced 2nd-fav @9/4; but I feel that Vino Griego @ 11/2 and Time
For Spring @ 15/2 can give this pair a race. Rangitoto wasn't pushed
when he won his debut chase, but he wasn't that impressive either.
Master Fiddle unseated in his debut chase so we don't really know how
good he is and his odds are based around his trainer's reputation and
record at this time of year. Vino Griego ran a cracker LTO when 2nd at
Sandown to The Minack and if he runs a similar bold race from the front
today he will put the jumping ability of the market leaders under test.
However, I was on TIME FOR SPRING when he ran LTO, and he was perhaps a little unlucky not to win as perhaps he should have been brought with his challenge a little earlier. He has Sam Waley-Cohen in the saddle and his 5lb claim will be useful and could make all the difference in this race. Obviously, both Rangitoto and Master Fiddle could be rated much higher than OR131 and OR122 respectively at the end of this jumps season, so I'm not advising a firm wager; but at 7/1 generally (as I write, the earlier 15/2 has now gone) TIME FOR SPRING is worth a small
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