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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday, 2 January 2012
Chilworth Lass runs at Plumpton
The start of a new year and I’m off to Plumpton.
Today, being part of the White diamond Racing Partnership, I’ll be watching our horse CHILWORTH LASS having her first run over hurdles in the opening race.
The going at Plumpton is heavy (soft in places) and that could be tough on the little mare. She is a game and resilient horse tho’, judging by her performances on the all-weather, and she could well handle the ground as her half-bro’ won on very soft going at Saint-Cloud in France over 1m2½f as a 4yo. Her dam’s half-sister also acted on soft going.
It will be a tough “ask” today as Alan King’s Balder Success could be a decent horse based on his sole run – and win – in France. Gary Moore’s Jodawes also looks a capable novice hurdler and comes here with experience. However, the rest of this field look nothing special at all, and the fact that CHILWORTH LASS receives at least 12lb from the others, and 19lb from both Balder Success and Jodawes means that I reckon the current 28/1 is worth a small eachway wager from me on the course.
The next couple of races I reckon I will pass over, but the 2m5f hurdle at 2:15 looks interesting. Most of these look real back-numbers but the latest run from PUR DE SIVOLA, who was a decent horse when with Alan King a few years back, suggests that he may go close in this. He likes to be up with the pace, which is no bad thing on going like today, and he has won on very soft going over 2m4f on hurdles at Taunton. For me, 14/1 looks too long and I’d have him at half those odds considering he’s 49lb below his peak NH rating of OR138.
The Sussex National at 2:45 will be a gruelling race, and so stamina will be the most important requirement. RATE OF KNOTS has won twice (from 3 starts ) on heavy going and can also stay this extreme trip (3rd in Kent National over 3m7f at Folkestone, btn 3-lengths). He is my selection in this race.
After that, if I’m still warm enough to stand up, then I’ll likely have a punt on GORING TWO in the 3:20 before calling it a day. GORING TWO is trained just up the road from Plumpton at Jevington near Eastbourne and Anna Newton-Smith does well with her runners at local tracks like Plumpton.
All the best to my readers, and let’s make 2012 a profitable year.