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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 3 January 2012
A period of reflection
No selections for the blog yesterday as I was at Plumpton watching
syndicate horse CHILWORTH LASS (I'm a shareholder) on her hurdling
I thought she ran a cracker on going (heavy) that was a lot worse than
she wants. She led for most of the race only succumbing to a challenge
on the approach to the 2nd-last flight. For a brief moment I thought she
may hold-on to 3rd spot and provide me with a decent return on my
eachway wager at 33/1, but it was not to be. Realistically, she had no
chance with the odds-on winner Balder Success, who looks half-decent;
nor with the runner-up Jodawes. The 3rd horse home Specialagent Alfie
had been dropped in trip from 2m4f and (benefitting from race fitness)
he outstayed Chilworth Lass on this going, as did the 4th home Excelsior
Academy. But, all-in-all, it was an encouraging run and on better going
she should prove capable of winning in a class 5 handicap.
By coincidence, at Folkestone later in the afternoon, the other horse
that had been "offered" by he-who-shall-not-be-named (prior to Chilworth
Lass being syndicated) also ran for the 1st time since that incident.
KING OF CASTILE had subsequently been purchased by trainer Jim Best of
Lewes, apparently carrying an injury. Well, he showed none of that
yesterday making nearly all to romp home a 16-length winner at 3/1. He
was helped having come into the race fresh from a 6-month break and also
benefitting from a drop in the handicap to a rating of OR95. I should
have had the horse on my alert list as he clearly possesses some ability
and it has to be classed as a missed opportunity, especially as Jim Best
really knows how to prepare a horse for a coup and I expect connections
recouped their purchase price - and more - yesterday.
My biggest wager of the day was in the Sussex National on Rate Of Knots
and my immediate thought when the last of the market leaders fell
mid-race was that all he had to do to win was stand up - and he failed
to do that with an awful jump at the fence in front of the Plumpton
stands. At times like that I wished I were at home, as then I could have
lumped onto Double Dizzy. He may only have one gear, but he is a
resolute galloper who knows how to jump a fence and as he led those who
still stood out onto the final circuit there could only be one winner.
Today's high winds have resulted in the abandonment of the meeting at
Ayr. There is little prospect of any worthwhile wagering opportunities
till Saturday, so I'm going thru' my alert list and giving it a good
I always give a horse the benefit of at least one run if it makes it
onto my personal alert list, after that it really needs to show
something decent. One that did not make the cut yesterday evening was
Ghizao who has cost me dearly since I managed to win on him a couple of
times in the autumn of 2010. It hurts when you see a horse which has
some talent, not fulfil its potential; and I'm sure that Paul Nicholls
will have another go with the horse. I expect he'll have a wind-op
sometime in the next few weeks followed by a re-appearance hopefully on
a flat track. He ran a cracker when chasing home Finians Rainbow at
Aintree last April and he could well show his best if he returns there
again this coming April.
I've just noticed from my racing calendar that there is a 4-week break
between the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree National meetings (in my
youth it was just 2-weeks) and while that will allow plenty of horses to
race at both meetings, having the Grand National run on April 14th is
not good for that race. When I was growing up in the 1960's, 70's &
80's, the National was run on the last Saturday in March, which would be
the Saturday after the Lincoln handicap was run. Pushing the National
meeting later in the calendar may result in more horses competing in the
other championship races but, for the National itself, it is not a good
idea. It also makes it near impossible for a horse to compete in 2 (or
more) of the major staying chases held at the end of the jumps season
with the Scottish National being run on Saturday 21st April (just a week
after the Grand National), the Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown being run on
the 28th April, and the Irish National being run on Easter weekend (the
weekend before the National). There are not enough top-class staying
chasers to go around, and the other races (notably the Sandown race) are
starting to go into terminal decline.
The racing calendar needs proper organisation, otherwise racing is in
danger of killing the goose that lays the golden egg.
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