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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 16 January 2016
Betfred Classic at Warwick
There are just 2 jump race meetings today at Wetherby and Warwick; and there is a 2-mile handicap chase at Wetherby at 2:05pm that catches my eye as we have alert list runner Upsilon Bleu running. his last win was over C&D (13-months ago) on soft ground, and he upheld that form in two subsequent races. He was aimed to take the same race again, but that meeting was abandoned and he had a spin over hurdles instead LTO. As such, he comes here fit and well and running off just a pound higher mark (OR144) than when winning here. I can see him going very close as the race-fav Sir Valentino looks exposed and in the handicappers grip off OR143 and a bigger danger will likely be Gardefort who can be very good on his day. He hammered Sir Valentino when they met last season (Sir Valentino has won 4 races since then, and gone up 18lbs in the handicap) yet meets him on 12lb better terms! Even so, it is a leap of faith that it's a going day for him, and so the 4/1 about UPSILON BLEU looks the best value.
Before we leave Wetherby, spare a thought for Lucinda Russell who has VOYAGE A NEW YORK in the 3:15pm handicap chase. The last horse he beat (he's pulled-up twice since and finished a tailed-off last of 8) was none-other than Wakanda. What has gone wrong with this 7yo who held so much promise this time last year?
Onto Warwick, and the novice chase over 3-mile at 1:50pm could be a cracker. Paul Nicholls won this with Rocky Creek in 2013, and sent Black Thunder in 2014; so SILSOL comes highly rated. Yes, he's giving weight away, but he's proven over fences and at the trip and on heavy ground. Black Hercules may have been sent over by Willie Mullins, but he's no odds-on chance in my book and should be opposed at those odds. He was well beaten when starting the 5/2 fav for the Albert Bartlett 3-mile novice hurdle at the 2015 Cheltenham Festival on soft ground, and that suggests he's not quite "bomb-proof". Remarkably, SILSOL is available at 6/1.
The Betfred Classic Handicap Chase over 3m5f will be a tough race to win on this heavy ground. I expect there will be only 5 or 6 finishers from the 14 lining-up at the start. There are several from my alert list running: Midnight Prayer; Loose Chips; What A Good Night; Sego Success; and Algernon Pazham
Of those, Loose Chips has no chance, and Midnight Prayer does not look like he is is likely to reproduce his form of 2014 again. It will be a mighty task for Sego Success to win with 11st 12lb on this ground, so he is overlooked too. For me, it looks between Algernon Pazham and What A Good Night who met each other at Bangor last November. As What A Good Night outstayed his rival that day he is taken to do the same again today, and odds of 16/1 look fair value.
This will be a gruelling race, so not one to put the mortgage on, and small eachway stakes only.
Wetherby 2:05pm UPSILON BLEU, £10 win at 4/1 (available generally)
Warwick 1:50pm SILSOL, £10 win @ 6/1 (available generally)
Warwick 3:35pm WHAT A GOOD NIGHT, £5 eachway (available generally, quarter odds a place 1,2,3)