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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 13 January 2016
Weather affects the racing
I thought we were going to do well last Saturday with Woodford County in the Welsh National, as he looked to hold every chance with 4 to jump but (unfortunately) he weakened thereon to be just touched-off for 4th place. However, all was not lost as we were on with Paddy Power at 16/1 and they paid out to 5th place to quarter-odds. As such, the advised wager returned a small profit of £10.
My overall assessment of the race was fairly good (in my opinion) as although eventual winner Mountainous was overlooked, I highlighted the chances of the 25/1 runner-up Firebird Flyer and of 3rd-placed Shotgun Paddy who looks to be one to note for the remainder of the season.
There will be heavy ground for tomorrow's meeting at Catterick, and for Friday's meetings at Huntingdon and Sedgefield. The "North Yorkshire Grand National" run at Catterick, and starting at 2:50pm could be an interesting race. Run over a trip of 3m6f, there hasn't been a winner of the race carrying more than 11-stone in the last 10 years and so I'm most interested in those at carrying under 11st. The 7yo Jac The Legend is an out-and-out stayer who should revell over the trip and on this ground; but I will wait until the odds are published in the morning before making a selection (if any).
There are no suitable Class 3 races (or better) at either Huntingdon or Sedgefield on Friday, so it looks as though we will have to wait until Saturday for the next confirmed wager. This is fairly normal for the time of year as midweek racing struggles to maintain the interest of punters. Perhaps with the demise of Channel 4 Racing when television coverage switches to ITV in 2017, with the reduced fixtures on tv we will see more pressure to return some better quality races to midweek slots.
Saturday brings us meetings at Warwick and Wetherby, with both forecast to be run on heavy ground (and with snow forecast) it will be fingers crossed for a winning wager. At Warwick, the Betfred Classic Handicap Chase over 3m5f could turn out to be a gruelling race. There are a number of horses in the race that look to have winning potential, and most will be on everyone's shortlists; the likes of Doing Fine, Midnight Prayer, Algernon Pazham and Sego Success.
I'm about to start writing my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin for 2016, with a target issue date of Saturday 20th February. The intention is to follow the format of previous issues, with a review of the trends behind each race and a few antepost selections in the championship races. Keep reading the blog for details of progress.