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Record of the blog selections
Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38
from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)
Total Staked = £280.00
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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.
Friday, 29 January 2016
Get out on the Highway!
This weekend we have some exciting racing at Cheltenham and Doncaster. But, before that, we have another great day of racing today, with meetings at Huntingdon and Doncaster and, for the first time this week, we have what looks to be a value wager in what could be a weak race for the grade.
The meeting at Doncaster did look like it was going to present us with a wagering opportunity earlier in the week when I reviewed the entries, but the races have not developed as I’d hoped. The most interesting race there is the 3-mile novice chase at 3:05pm with a small field of 5-runners. The race-fav is Thomas Brown sent by Harry Fry, but I’m very interested in Saint Roque trained by Paul Nicholls, and Vintage Vinnie trained by Rebecca Curtis and ridden by Barry Geraghty. The booking of Geraghty is interesting, and connections will be hoping he can rekindle the early season enthusiasm about Vintage Vinnie today. This is a tricky race to decifer and none of these can be fully discounted – it should be a race worth watching and taking note of, especially with the Cheltenham Festival in mind.
For today’s selection I’m looking at Huntingdon, and the 2m4f Class 3 handicap chase at 2:10pm. There are 9-runners going to post and one of them has been on my alert list for a few seasons: Denali Highway. He is Caroline Bailey’s only runner here today, and soft ground and 2m4f are the conditions under which he’s done best in the past. This season he’s had just 2 runs, the first of which was after a break from the track of 18 months from March 2014 to November 2015. That was over this C&D and he ran well to be 2nd, clearly looking like the run would do him some good after such a long break from the track. Next time out, over 3-miles at Warwick, he ran well again but he’s never been a 3-mile chaser and again looked like he didn’t stay the trip in this race. As such, he’s slipped down the ratings to OR120 today, and I reckon he’s an OR130+ horse over this sort of trip and ground. He will be race-fit today, and it could be that his trainer has aimed him at this race since his seasonal debut here last November.
The others in the race all appear to have doubts over them, be it either trip or ground. Artifice Sivola is unproven at this trip; Cadoudoff does not look happy on soft ground; and The Clock Leary has been unable to repeat his chase debut form and is possibly over-rated. The only one I fear is another from my alert list; Dusky Lark who ran well on his chase debut despite having no luck in running, yet hit the 1st-fence hard LTO and lost his confidence. He could go well if he starts this race well.
Overall, I’m happy to go with DENALI HIGHWAY and although we have missed the early 6/1 on offer, he’s currently 5/1 with several bookies (Bet365, BetVictor, and Paddy Power etc) and I think he will go off the clear fav at the off at around 7/2.
Huntingdon 2:10pm DENALI HIGHWAY, £10 win @ 5/1 (available generally)