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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 21 January 2016
Fingers crossed for Wincanton
Before then, we have a couple of interesting meetings at Ludlow and Wincanton. Unfortunately, both are being run on heavy ground (again) which has decimated the declared runners. For instance, the 3-mile Class 3 handicap chase at 2:30pm at Ludlow had 29 entries but that has been reduced to just 8 declared runners. With 4 of the amateur riders able to claim a 7lb allowance, this does not look to be the sort of race we should be having a wager in. Since writing this, Ludlow has been lost to overnight frost, and the meeting is abandoned.
Wincanton looks better, and the Class 3 handicap chase over 2m4f at 2:10pm has a field of 9 runners (from 21 entries) despite the heavy ground. We know some horses will love the mud, such as an old fav of the blog, Renard. He's been running over 3-mile recently, but he's best known to me running over this sort of trip and his last win was over 2m4f at Chepstow on heavy ground. One who looks fairly well treated and who will love the ground is Ballinvarrig and if he can get his act together he looks to have a good chance off OR122. the Paul Nicholls trained Wuff has had his limits exposed in recent runs. I'm not sure about the fav Alder Mairi, as he has won a couple of facile races easily and gone up 18lb whereas he looked one-paced in his previous 6 chase races, and he may have been flattered by his recent good fortune. Gores Island may be pushed to last out this 2m4f trip and Quite By Chance may have won LTO but his form seems to have reached its ceiling.
The more I look at this race the more I like the chance of BALLINVARRIG who has slipped to OR122 which is 11lb below his peak and 4lb below his last winning rating (over 3-mile at Kempton). He appears to have been beaten this season for lack of fitness and, even tho' he has won at 3-mile, his best trip is more like this 2m4f. The big worry is the heavy ground, but he possibly has the ability off this rating to make light of it.
Wincanton 2:10pm BALLINVARRIG, £5 eachway @ 10/1 with Bet365
Theree is an 8:00am inspection but at the time of writing, the Clerk of the Course is confidant that racing will take place. Best odds at 8:30am (this blog was emailed to donators at 9pm on Wednesday evening) on the selection are 9/1.