What a race we have in store for us today. A full complement of 40 horses and riders will be chasing the biggest prize - a million pounds - in jump racing. But first, yesterday, and altho' there was no blog issued (internet problems) I did send out a couple of selections on twitter including HOLYWELL who won at 7/2 and was installed at 12/1 in the Gold Cup market for next March.
I took a good look at the Grand National earlier this week and narrowed the field down to just 5. They are:-TEAFORTHREE @ 12/1 (available generally)
DOUBLE SEVEN @ 14/1 (available generally)
TRIOLO D’ALENE @ 22/1 with Bet365 paying 5-places eachway
CHANCE DU ROY @ 33/1 (available generally)
VINTAGE STAR @ 66/1 (available generally)
To those 5 there is only one other that I would add:
ALVARADO @ 33/1 (available generally)
If you are placing bets then make sure you check the terms of the bookies. Try and avoid those paying only 4-places eachway (Coral and William Hill) as all the rest offer 5-places except Bet Victor - and they are offering 6-places eachway.
At 12/1 I think TEAFORTHREE is great value to be in the 1st-5 and has a favorites chance of winning. He will be in the front-rank throughout the race and should give his supporters a great run. At the odds, I'm going to pass-over DOUBLE SEVEN as now AP McCoy has been confirmed as his rider he does not look value at 14/1. One who looks destined to run a cracking race is TRIOLO D'ALENE. His trainer Nicky Henderson sent 3 winners out at Aintree yesterday and has his horses in tip-top form. TRIOLO D'ALENE won the Topham Chase last year, and then won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and was well fancied to go close in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The worry is that he's carrying a big weight of 11st 6lb so he could be found wanting in the final mile.
There are no weight problems for CHANCE DU ROY: he's only carrying 10st 6lb and has a good record over the National fences having won the Becher Chase last December, and he ran 2nd in the Topham Chase in April 2012. To be honest, I thought he'd be 16/1 for this race and at 33/1 he has to be on the list of eachway wagers. Also with a light-weight is VINTAGE STAR with just 10st 7lb. You have to ignore his last run at Cheltenham - he seems to hate that track - but, before that, he ran a cracker at Haydock in the Peter Marsh Chase. The ground today will be perfect for him and - judged on his close 2nd to Hey Big Spender last November - he has an outstanding chance. Odds of 66/1 are an insult to the horse and he should be trading at less than 20/1.
I've added ALVARADO into consideration as this horse has sneaked into the race with just 10st 2lb . He seems to have unlimited stamina and the further the better for him. He does race at the rear early on, so don't get despondent if you don't hear his name early in the race as he'll be staying-on like a train in the final mile.
Finally, I can't finish this blog without a mention for the horse my girlfriend has put her money on - THE PACKAGE. He hated his experience when he next ran in the race in 2010, but he has tremendous for in handicaps coming 4th in the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup and 3rd at Cheltenham last month with subsequent Aintree winners Holywell and Ma Filleule the only ones ahead of him.
My advised wagers on the race:
TEAFORTHREE - £5 eachway @ 12/1
CHANCE DU ROY - £5 eachway @ 33/1
VINTAGE STAR - £5 eachway @ 66/1
Total = £30 staked
Of the rest of the card, there is nothing much that looks a value wager except in the 3:25 which is the 3m1f handicap chase. I've long had a eye on WIESENTRAUM and he looks well handicapped off OR130 for this race and has the benefit of 1st-time blinkers. He should be trading a lot shorter than 20/1 (Skybet and Sportingodds) and looks a decent eachway wager.
Aintree 3:25 - WIESENTRAUM, £5 eachway @ 20/1
All the best to readers, and let's hope all the horses go home safe and well.
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Finally, if any of my Grand National selections win and you have a profitable day on the back of what you've read here, please return to the blog and make a donation from your winnings.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Showing posts with label Free tips. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free tips. Show all posts
Saturday, 5 April 2014
Saturday, 28 April 2012
Time to call the tune
The 478th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections yesterday, but a couple of the greyhounds that I put up as potential Greyhound Derby winners came home in good style last night on the 1st round of heats.
The final Saturday of the 2011-12 Jump Season and the big finale is the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown at 3:10. The going is soft, good-to-soft in places, and that won’t be testing enough (in my opinion) for Le Beau Bai. I’m going to stick my neck out and suggest a horse that has run 2nd in 6 of his 10 chases to date – ALDERTUNE. He’s a very safe jumper of a fence, and he handles Sandown well and carried 11st 12lb here when going down by just a neck over 3-mile 110 yards in February; so today with just 10st 1lb to carry he’ll think it is his birthday. He also ran well when being beaten by the well-handicapped Zarrafakt at Wincanton in January. He travelled like the winner 3-out that day, but had no chance with Zarrafakt who was raised 12lb for that win. We also know he will stay this trip based on his close-up 4th to Giles Cross in the Southern National at Fontwell last November. Giles Cross is now rated 12lb higher, Rey Nacarado in 2nd won NTO and is now 6lb higher, and Fortification has also won since and is also 6lb higher. That looks top-notch form. ALDERTUNE has only ever won on soft going, and he’s run very well on good-to-soft. The more I look at his form, the more I think he’s got a much better than 16/1 chance for this race off just 10st 1lb. He’ll have a good pace today in these testing conditions and the only reason I won’t make him a win selection is that he does seem to shirk a battle, so he may need to hold a clear advantage at the final fence to hold on in the run-in.
Selection: Sandown 3:10, ALDERTUNE, ½pt eachway @ 16/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Total = 1pt staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites. Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections yesterday, but a couple of the greyhounds that I put up as potential Greyhound Derby winners came home in good style last night on the 1st round of heats.
The final Saturday of the 2011-12 Jump Season and the big finale is the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown at 3:10. The going is soft, good-to-soft in places, and that won’t be testing enough (in my opinion) for Le Beau Bai. I’m going to stick my neck out and suggest a horse that has run 2nd in 6 of his 10 chases to date – ALDERTUNE. He’s a very safe jumper of a fence, and he handles Sandown well and carried 11st 12lb here when going down by just a neck over 3-mile 110 yards in February; so today with just 10st 1lb to carry he’ll think it is his birthday. He also ran well when being beaten by the well-handicapped Zarrafakt at Wincanton in January. He travelled like the winner 3-out that day, but had no chance with Zarrafakt who was raised 12lb for that win. We also know he will stay this trip based on his close-up 4th to Giles Cross in the Southern National at Fontwell last November. Giles Cross is now rated 12lb higher, Rey Nacarado in 2nd won NTO and is now 6lb higher, and Fortification has also won since and is also 6lb higher. That looks top-notch form. ALDERTUNE has only ever won on soft going, and he’s run very well on good-to-soft. The more I look at his form, the more I think he’s got a much better than 16/1 chance for this race off just 10st 1lb. He’ll have a good pace today in these testing conditions and the only reason I won’t make him a win selection is that he does seem to shirk a battle, so he may need to hold a clear advantage at the final fence to hold on in the run-in.
Selection: Sandown 3:10, ALDERTUNE, ½pt eachway @ 16/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Total = 1pt staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites. Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 14 April 2012
Grand National 2012
The 469th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Today we have the Grand National - the greatest horse race in the World - being run at Aintree, a track that is just a few miles from where I grew up. Last year I gave 3 horses for the race on my blog and included the winner BALLABRIGGS. By comparison, none (not one) of the Racing Post tipsters (of which there are many) named the winner despite each putting-up 4 horses as a shortlist.
But first, the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f at 2:50 and if anything beats ROCK ON RUBY in this race then it is seriously a good hurdler. I was on Zarkandar in the Champion Hurdle and he was staying-on that day, but Aintree is a speed track and if Zarkandar was caught for pace at Cheltenham he’ll really struggle to stay in contention here. Do not underestimate Thousand Stars who was 2nd in this race last season beaten just a ¼-length. I’m tempted to do a forecast; Rock On Ruby to beat Thousand Stars.
For the Grand National, earlier this week, I suggested WEST END ROCKER, PLANET OF SOUND, ACCORDING TO PETE and MIDNIGHT HAZE. The more I look at PLANET OF SOUND, the more I like him and he should be the best of those carrying 11st+. The drying ground (it is now officially “good”) will help him, but it will hinder WEST END ROCKER who would prefer it to be softer (his last 2 wins have been on heavy going). Similarly, ACCORDING TO PETE has never won a chase on ground faster the good-to-soft. There is a lot of pace in this field with nearly 30 of the 40 runners classed as “prominent” runners in the Weekender assessment. This means that it will be unlikely that anything will come from off the pace and win, unless they go too fast on the 1st circuit and the pace collapses in the 2nd circuit – as happened when MON MOME won at 100/1. Killyglen was up with the pace till falling 4-out last year, and that was because he was tired. Prior to his LTO win over 3m2f on soft, his form beyond 3-miles was F/6th/PU/2nd/ PU/PU which suggests in a true run race he won’t stay this trip. I personally think it is very hard for a horse aged 11yo or older to win this race, and so I’m not considering anything in this category, including last year’s winner BALLABRIGGS who is an 11yo. However, I expect STATE OF PLAY to be in the 1st-6 home (he’s run 4th / 3rd / 4th in the last 3 Nationals) and at 50/1 with Bet Victor who are paying to 6 places, he’s worth a ew “fun” punt. Another that I really like is MIDNIGHT HAZE. He may have done all his winning going right-handed, but Aintree is the longest circuit in the country and they race mainly in a straight-line. If he jumps Bechers without mishap on the 1st circuit then he could be in for a big race as he’s won 3 of his 6 races at trips beyond 3-mile, he’s a prominent runner, and Kim Bailey also trained the winner of the race in 1990 (Mr Frisk who still holds the course record time)
Onto my selections. For me PLANET OF SOUND – even tho’ he’s carrying 11st 5lb – at 33/1 (Bet365 & Stan James who go 5 places eachway) is great value. And - at 125/1 with Bet365 – I cannot ignore MIDNIGHT HAZE. Generally, the winner goes off at odds under 20/1 and from those only WEST END ROCKER at 16/1 and SYNCRONISED at 9/1 look capable of winning the race. At 9/1, I cannot have Synchronised tho’ I would expect him to be in the 1st-5 home.
Selections:
Aintree 4:15, PLANET OF SOUND, ¼pt eachway @ 33/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Aintree 4:15, MIDNIGHT HAZE, ¼pt eachway @ 125/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Total = 1pt staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Today we have the Grand National - the greatest horse race in the World - being run at Aintree, a track that is just a few miles from where I grew up. Last year I gave 3 horses for the race on my blog and included the winner BALLABRIGGS. By comparison, none (not one) of the Racing Post tipsters (of which there are many) named the winner despite each putting-up 4 horses as a shortlist.
But first, the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f at 2:50 and if anything beats ROCK ON RUBY in this race then it is seriously a good hurdler. I was on Zarkandar in the Champion Hurdle and he was staying-on that day, but Aintree is a speed track and if Zarkandar was caught for pace at Cheltenham he’ll really struggle to stay in contention here. Do not underestimate Thousand Stars who was 2nd in this race last season beaten just a ¼-length. I’m tempted to do a forecast; Rock On Ruby to beat Thousand Stars.
For the Grand National, earlier this week, I suggested WEST END ROCKER, PLANET OF SOUND, ACCORDING TO PETE and MIDNIGHT HAZE. The more I look at PLANET OF SOUND, the more I like him and he should be the best of those carrying 11st+. The drying ground (it is now officially “good”) will help him, but it will hinder WEST END ROCKER who would prefer it to be softer (his last 2 wins have been on heavy going). Similarly, ACCORDING TO PETE has never won a chase on ground faster the good-to-soft. There is a lot of pace in this field with nearly 30 of the 40 runners classed as “prominent” runners in the Weekender assessment. This means that it will be unlikely that anything will come from off the pace and win, unless they go too fast on the 1st circuit and the pace collapses in the 2nd circuit – as happened when MON MOME won at 100/1. Killyglen was up with the pace till falling 4-out last year, and that was because he was tired. Prior to his LTO win over 3m2f on soft, his form beyond 3-miles was F/6th/PU/2nd/ PU/PU which suggests in a true run race he won’t stay this trip. I personally think it is very hard for a horse aged 11yo or older to win this race, and so I’m not considering anything in this category, including last year’s winner BALLABRIGGS who is an 11yo. However, I expect STATE OF PLAY to be in the 1st-6 home (he’s run 4th / 3rd / 4th in the last 3 Nationals) and at 50/1 with Bet Victor who are paying to 6 places, he’s worth a ew “fun” punt. Another that I really like is MIDNIGHT HAZE. He may have done all his winning going right-handed, but Aintree is the longest circuit in the country and they race mainly in a straight-line. If he jumps Bechers without mishap on the 1st circuit then he could be in for a big race as he’s won 3 of his 6 races at trips beyond 3-mile, he’s a prominent runner, and Kim Bailey also trained the winner of the race in 1990 (Mr Frisk who still holds the course record time)
Onto my selections. For me PLANET OF SOUND – even tho’ he’s carrying 11st 5lb – at 33/1 (Bet365 & Stan James who go 5 places eachway) is great value. And - at 125/1 with Bet365 – I cannot ignore MIDNIGHT HAZE. Generally, the winner goes off at odds under 20/1 and from those only WEST END ROCKER at 16/1 and SYNCRONISED at 9/1 look capable of winning the race. At 9/1, I cannot have Synchronised tho’ I would expect him to be in the 1st-5 home.
Selections:
Aintree 4:15, PLANET OF SOUND, ¼pt eachway @ 33/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Aintree 4:15, MIDNIGHT HAZE, ¼pt eachway @ 125/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Total = 1pt staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 10 March 2012
Paul Nicholls in tip-top form
The 454th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Yesterday’s selection KASBADALI did not appreciate the soft going and yet still stayed on well enough to take 3rd after the last flight in a race run at a sound gallop. I reckon when the sun starts to shine and the ground dries in the next couple of weeks he’ll run better, and he could be one for Aintree. The winner Hildisvini stayed-on really well, and it expected to make a chaser, but he’ll need to improve his jumping as he took a few of these hurdles a bit low. So then, I’ve given 3 losers on the trot and lost 3pts in the process. This time last year I gave the 14/1 winner Holmwood Legend as my only selection and then gave a winning double on the Monday before Cheltenham; so let’s see if I can get us back in a confident mood today.
We have 3 jumps meetings at Sandown, Ayr, and Chepstow.
At Sandown, Paul Nicholls has his team in tip-top form with 3 winners from 7 runners yesterday. He has Aldertune (who is a previous blog selection) in the final race at Sandown, who is dropped in trip having not won in a long time at 2m6f+ and Ruby Walsh is back in the saddle. The race is full of old friends of mine: Sound Stage would win this easily if at his best now that he’s dropped to OR120, but he seems to have lost his way. You Know Yourself is another who would go well, if the going were good-to-soft, but it looks too quick for him. Inside Dealer couldn’t win this race last year off the same mark of OR125, and I think Cool Friend will need to be gifted the race to win it as she seems to be one-paced at the business end. I’m going to go out on a limb with COIS FARRAIG who is Paul Webber’s only runner today. He’s run at this meeting for the last 2 years and has only had 12 races in all. After winning a Newbury novice chase he was rated OR134 and was then highly tried (ran in the Scilly Isles won by Medermit, with Captain Chris in 2nd). He does not stay a yard further than 2m5f, and so it was not unexpected that he faded quickly LTO over 3-mile at Ascot from 4-out. He was 6/1 that day, and he’s 14/1 for this and I think he’s a good eachway wager in this 8-runner race.
At Ayr, Sammy Spiderman has only ever won at Ayr on soft/heavy going, and that’s what he has today. He didn’t win here LTO tho’ and he may find Mr WOODS too strong for him in the 3:25 there.
At Cheptsow, Jason Maguire has a nice book of rides and I especially like BUFFALO BOB in the 4:50. He’s won on heavy going and stays further than this trip and also being a prominent runner he will ensure a stamina test. Odds of 4/1 are available with a few “best odds guaranteed” bookies, but 9/2 with Stan James looks stand-out value.
As much as I like the look of COIS FARRAIG, if there is some pace on early in this race then he may struggle to get into contention especially as Aldertune stays 3-mile and will likely be up there “in-the-van” thru’out. So I’m not advising a wager on him, but would not put anyone off having a “fun” bet. For me, BUFFALO BOB looks the wager as he started the season on OR131 and has won off OR126, and he’s on OR120 today. He had no chance LTO over an inadequate trip, so 9/2 today looks great value.
Selection:
Cheptstow 4:50, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Stan James)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Yesterday’s selection KASBADALI did not appreciate the soft going and yet still stayed on well enough to take 3rd after the last flight in a race run at a sound gallop. I reckon when the sun starts to shine and the ground dries in the next couple of weeks he’ll run better, and he could be one for Aintree. The winner Hildisvini stayed-on really well, and it expected to make a chaser, but he’ll need to improve his jumping as he took a few of these hurdles a bit low. So then, I’ve given 3 losers on the trot and lost 3pts in the process. This time last year I gave the 14/1 winner Holmwood Legend as my only selection and then gave a winning double on the Monday before Cheltenham; so let’s see if I can get us back in a confident mood today.
We have 3 jumps meetings at Sandown, Ayr, and Chepstow.
At Sandown, Paul Nicholls has his team in tip-top form with 3 winners from 7 runners yesterday. He has Aldertune (who is a previous blog selection) in the final race at Sandown, who is dropped in trip having not won in a long time at 2m6f+ and Ruby Walsh is back in the saddle. The race is full of old friends of mine: Sound Stage would win this easily if at his best now that he’s dropped to OR120, but he seems to have lost his way. You Know Yourself is another who would go well, if the going were good-to-soft, but it looks too quick for him. Inside Dealer couldn’t win this race last year off the same mark of OR125, and I think Cool Friend will need to be gifted the race to win it as she seems to be one-paced at the business end. I’m going to go out on a limb with COIS FARRAIG who is Paul Webber’s only runner today. He’s run at this meeting for the last 2 years and has only had 12 races in all. After winning a Newbury novice chase he was rated OR134 and was then highly tried (ran in the Scilly Isles won by Medermit, with Captain Chris in 2nd). He does not stay a yard further than 2m5f, and so it was not unexpected that he faded quickly LTO over 3-mile at Ascot from 4-out. He was 6/1 that day, and he’s 14/1 for this and I think he’s a good eachway wager in this 8-runner race.
At Ayr, Sammy Spiderman has only ever won at Ayr on soft/heavy going, and that’s what he has today. He didn’t win here LTO tho’ and he may find Mr WOODS too strong for him in the 3:25 there.
At Cheptsow, Jason Maguire has a nice book of rides and I especially like BUFFALO BOB in the 4:50. He’s won on heavy going and stays further than this trip and also being a prominent runner he will ensure a stamina test. Odds of 4/1 are available with a few “best odds guaranteed” bookies, but 9/2 with Stan James looks stand-out value.
As much as I like the look of COIS FARRAIG, if there is some pace on early in this race then he may struggle to get into contention especially as Aldertune stays 3-mile and will likely be up there “in-the-van” thru’out. So I’m not advising a wager on him, but would not put anyone off having a “fun” bet. For me, BUFFALO BOB looks the wager as he started the season on OR131 and has won off OR126, and he’s on OR120 today. He had no chance LTO over an inadequate trip, so 9/2 today looks great value.
Selection:
Cheptstow 4:50, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Stan James)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 15 February 2012
2012 Cheltenham Festival Bulletin
The 436th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
It's here!
The 2012 Cheltenham Festival Bulletin has now been published and initial copies were sent out by email this evening to those who have made a £5 donation to the blog.
If you want a copy, you know what to do, and that's donate £5 using the donate button above. What you will receive is a 16-page, 9500 word document that looks at every race in the Festival, detailing important trends, potential antepost selections, in-running strategies, and provides 3 rock solid guides to every race to help you sort thru' the chaff and produce a shortlist from which (hopefully) you'll find the winners.
That's it for me for a few days. I've spent the best part of 3-weeks and over 50 hours writing and researching the bulletin and I need a break. So, I'm off to Cornwall for a long weekend and will be back on Monday. Don't worry, I'm taking my laptop with me, so if you want a copy of the bulletin send me a donation and I'll send you a copy.
All the best.
It's here!
The 2012 Cheltenham Festival Bulletin has now been published and initial copies were sent out by email this evening to those who have made a £5 donation to the blog.
If you want a copy, you know what to do, and that's donate £5 using the donate button above. What you will receive is a 16-page, 9500 word document that looks at every race in the Festival, detailing important trends, potential antepost selections, in-running strategies, and provides 3 rock solid guides to every race to help you sort thru' the chaff and produce a shortlist from which (hopefully) you'll find the winners.
That's it for me for a few days. I've spent the best part of 3-weeks and over 50 hours writing and researching the bulletin and I need a break. So, I'm off to Cornwall for a long weekend and will be back on Monday. Don't worry, I'm taking my laptop with me, so if you want a copy of the bulletin send me a donation and I'll send you a copy.
All the best.
Saturday, 28 January 2012
For Harry and St George!
The 426th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I have not blogged much this week as I had the funeral of a very old friend to attend on Thursday. Graham died suddenly at the age of just 51 and it was a great shock to all who knew him. All who were there, and there must have been well over 150 people, had tremendous good feeling for Graham who was an incredibly generous man whose love for life always uplifted your soul. I felt both humble and proud that he had chosen me to be one of his friends, and I will miss him.
Today, we have good meetings at Cheltenham and Doncaster, and another interesting meeting at Uttoxeter. I normally go to the Trials meeting at Cheltenham, but this year I’m watching on tv. The opening Triumph Hurdle trial looks a straight choice between Baby Mix and GRUMETI and I favour the latter who looks as good if not better than Alan King’s previous winners of this race. At 13/8, I’m having a personal wager on him.
Next on the card we have novice handicap chase over 2m5f, and there are 4 from my alert list running in it: Bless The Wings, Carpincho, That’lldoboy and Lexicon Lad. Of those, I favour Bless The Wings and That’lldoboy andboth look well handicapped on OR130 and OR127 respectively. This trip and track should suit BLESS THE WINGS and I reckon he should be a lot shorter than current odds of 6/1, as I’d have him the 4/1 fav.
The next at 2:05 is all about Aerial and whether he should be the fav as The Giant Bolster won over C&D on this card last year and has failed in his attempts to stay 3-mile since. Back to this trip and getting 7lb from Aerial, he will be no pushover. I can’t see either Poquelin or Tamarinbleu getting involved off their ratings, but I do like CHANCE DU ROY at 10/1 taking the 3rd place spot and maybe even giving the leading pair something to think about.
The Argento Chase should go to DIAMOND HARRY and I cannot understand why this horse is not the 2/1 fav for this race. He ran a cracker in the Betfair Chase and based on his Hennessey Gold Cup win, he’s clearly the best horse in this race. The only horse I fear is Midnight Chase who is a better horse than OR158 and he could have them all off the bridle if he turns in a performance like the one that won the Listed handicap chase over C&D in December 2010.
At Doncaster, we have the Skybet Chase and it looks a cracker. First off, Aiteen Thirtythree does not stay 3-miles in this company. I also think you’d be taking a big chance with Shalimar Fromentero to win this as he looks nothing special. I think Galaxy Rock and AP McCoy are a marriage made in heaven, but this trip isn’t far enough at just 3-mile. Qianshan Leader and Shakalakaboomboom both looks well treated on LTO wins and it would not surprise me if either won the race. Cape Tribulation has been crying out for 3-mile so he should also run well today, but needs a step up in his form to win. The two I like are Wymott @ 20/1 and Wayward Prince at 9/1. When this pair met over hurdles in Feb 2010, Wymott was the better horse. As such, if Wymott can get his act together he is a very dangerous horse running off OR142. Wayward Prince ran much better LTO than in his reappearance in the Hennessey Gold Cup (in which Wymott ran 6th) and has been dropped to OR146 which I think is lenient as I reckon he’s OR155+ at his best. I was going to make Wayward Prince my antepost selection earlier this week when he was 16/1, but events overtook me, and he’s just 9/1 now which is not so generous, but I still think he worth and eachway wager. As for Wymott, I’ll have a personal “place-only” wager on him.
Selections:
Cheltenham 2:35, DIAMOND HARRY, 2pts win at 4/1 (Bet365 best odds guaranteed)
Doncaster 2:50, WAYWARD PRINCE, 1pt eachway @ 9/1 (Bet365 best odds guaranteed)
These are my early wagers and there could well be additional wagers later on.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
I have not blogged much this week as I had the funeral of a very old friend to attend on Thursday. Graham died suddenly at the age of just 51 and it was a great shock to all who knew him. All who were there, and there must have been well over 150 people, had tremendous good feeling for Graham who was an incredibly generous man whose love for life always uplifted your soul. I felt both humble and proud that he had chosen me to be one of his friends, and I will miss him.
Today, we have good meetings at Cheltenham and Doncaster, and another interesting meeting at Uttoxeter. I normally go to the Trials meeting at Cheltenham, but this year I’m watching on tv. The opening Triumph Hurdle trial looks a straight choice between Baby Mix and GRUMETI and I favour the latter who looks as good if not better than Alan King’s previous winners of this race. At 13/8, I’m having a personal wager on him.
Next on the card we have novice handicap chase over 2m5f, and there are 4 from my alert list running in it: Bless The Wings, Carpincho, That’lldoboy and Lexicon Lad. Of those, I favour Bless The Wings and That’lldoboy andboth look well handicapped on OR130 and OR127 respectively. This trip and track should suit BLESS THE WINGS and I reckon he should be a lot shorter than current odds of 6/1, as I’d have him the 4/1 fav.
The next at 2:05 is all about Aerial and whether he should be the fav as The Giant Bolster won over C&D on this card last year and has failed in his attempts to stay 3-mile since. Back to this trip and getting 7lb from Aerial, he will be no pushover. I can’t see either Poquelin or Tamarinbleu getting involved off their ratings, but I do like CHANCE DU ROY at 10/1 taking the 3rd place spot and maybe even giving the leading pair something to think about.
The Argento Chase should go to DIAMOND HARRY and I cannot understand why this horse is not the 2/1 fav for this race. He ran a cracker in the Betfair Chase and based on his Hennessey Gold Cup win, he’s clearly the best horse in this race. The only horse I fear is Midnight Chase who is a better horse than OR158 and he could have them all off the bridle if he turns in a performance like the one that won the Listed handicap chase over C&D in December 2010.
At Doncaster, we have the Skybet Chase and it looks a cracker. First off, Aiteen Thirtythree does not stay 3-miles in this company. I also think you’d be taking a big chance with Shalimar Fromentero to win this as he looks nothing special. I think Galaxy Rock and AP McCoy are a marriage made in heaven, but this trip isn’t far enough at just 3-mile. Qianshan Leader and Shakalakaboomboom both looks well treated on LTO wins and it would not surprise me if either won the race. Cape Tribulation has been crying out for 3-mile so he should also run well today, but needs a step up in his form to win. The two I like are Wymott @ 20/1 and Wayward Prince at 9/1. When this pair met over hurdles in Feb 2010, Wymott was the better horse. As such, if Wymott can get his act together he is a very dangerous horse running off OR142. Wayward Prince ran much better LTO than in his reappearance in the Hennessey Gold Cup (in which Wymott ran 6th) and has been dropped to OR146 which I think is lenient as I reckon he’s OR155+ at his best. I was going to make Wayward Prince my antepost selection earlier this week when he was 16/1, but events overtook me, and he’s just 9/1 now which is not so generous, but I still think he worth and eachway wager. As for Wymott, I’ll have a personal “place-only” wager on him.
Selections:
Cheltenham 2:35, DIAMOND HARRY, 2pts win at 4/1 (Bet365 best odds guaranteed)
Doncaster 2:50, WAYWARD PRINCE, 1pt eachway @ 9/1 (Bet365 best odds guaranteed)
These are my early wagers and there could well be additional wagers later on.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 21 January 2012
Super Saturday for Paul Nicholls
The 423rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Today we have what looks to be a cracking days racing over the jumps with top-class meetings at Ascot and Haydock, plus another at Wincanton.
At Ascot, I like the look of the mares hurdle at 2:05 as the market is made by the fav Kentford Grey Lady who looked very impressive when winning LTO. Ordinarily, I would go for the fav but the fact that VIOLIN DAVIS who was 3rd that day is returning for a rematch looks interesting. This race is quite likely to be a severe test of stamina with Kaffie likely to make the pace strong thru’out. I can’t have the Irish challenger Our Girl Salley as I reckon the going will not be soft enough for her, and she’s trying 3-mile for the first time. VIOLIN DAVIS at 11/2 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power) looks a fair wager, as I’d be happy with 3/1.
The handicap hurdle at 2:35 was a race in which I was hoping to see BOBBY EWING return to the track. Look him up, his form suggests his OR139 hurdle rating is ludicrously low and I can see this horse winning a top hurdle handicap on his return. However, he misses this race and so I have to look elsewhere, and CICERON who won LTO looks the best value at 11/2. Alan King’s Smad Place looks over-rated at OR144 (I’d have him about 7lb less) and A Bridge Too Far has already been shown lacking at this step-up in trip wont help. Both Joseph Lister and Shoreacres want further than 2m3f, and I can’t really see Torpichen (also trained by Alan King) being involved off OR142, and Royal Charm is on a recovery mission in this. Going right-handed could well help Pateese show improved form, but again his mark of OR138 looks a tad high and the going is also possibly too lively for him. CICERON won LTO in a very fast time beating a well-handicapped rival into 2nd and has only been raised 7lb to OR136. Considering he won at Taunton off OR135 last February, this is well within his grasp and he should be less than 3/1 for this.
The Victor Chandler Chase revolves around Al Ferof who, if he’s as good as Paul Nicholls reckons, will win this. Last March, he won what looks to have been a very strong Supreme Novices Hurdle and if it comes to a test of speed after the final fence then he’ll take some beating. However, both Al Ferof and Finian’s Rainbow are up against half-a-dozen high class chasers and any flaws in their jumping ability at speed will be exposed. As such, I cannot have Finian’s Rainbow whose jumping has never been convincing and was fortunate to be 2nd in what looks to have been a sub-standard Arkle last March. SOMERSBY is the highest rated horse in the race by 4lbs and is game and consistent. He will either relish this drop in trip from the 3-mile of the King George (was well there till after 4-out) or he may find things happening too quickly. Wishful Thinking has never looked a natural 2-mile chaser. As for Gauvain, all his best form is usually in the autumn, and he was stuffed in this race last season. He has been made the Pricewise selection so the 8/1 has gone and he’s best-priced at 6/1 generally now. You cannot really take the chances of the other runners seriously as they are well below the standard required to win. SOMERSBY at 11/2 is worthy of a small wager and I’d be very happy if he could win, but I reckon he’ll be seen at his best in the Ryanair at the Festival. As such, I’m strongly tempted by the 100/30 on AL FEROF (William Hill).
Ascot’s card is tremendous and the 3:45 is another exciting race. I could easily name half the field as having realistic chances and with 15 going to post, so only 3 places available, it is too tight a heat; altho’ SA SUFFIT is a horse who looks well handicapped and if the going is softer than advertised he could go well. The 2-mile trip was too short for his LTO even so he was bang there at the finish, and before that he had no chance against Always Right at Kelso over 3-mile on 4th December. He may not have the class to win this but at 14/1 (so long as the going is soft) he is a solid eachway chance.
Unfortunately for Haydock who hold the Peter Marsh Chase, the going there is heavy, and I can see there being more than a few non-runners. I never like betting on heavy going so I’m giving the meeting a miss.
Wincanton has better going, and the class 3 chase at 2:10 could be an interesting opening for ALDERTUNE. Only 3 of the 13 runners are aged under 10yo, so they are all in the main well-exposed and holding no secrets from the handicapper. As such, I reckon the winner will come from one of the other 3 of ALDERTUNE, Zarrafakt and Diamond Brook. I think this 3m1f trip will be too much for Zarrafakt who is probably best at 2m6f. Diamond Brook looks one-paced at this sort of trip and he needs to show improvement. As for ALDERTUNE, he was well thought of as a hurdler by Nicholls and he really should have won more races (has come 2nd 6 times in 15 starts). His form has worked out well this season, especially his close 4th in the Southern National to Giles Cross. LTO he hated the heavy going, but he’s been well rested since then with a 7 week break, and he can improve enough to take this race at rewarding odds.
Selections:
Ascot 2:35, CICERON, 1pt win @ 11/2 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Ascot 3:10, AL FEROF, 1pt win @ 100/30 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
These are my early wagers, tho’ depending on how the ground is, there could well be an additional wagers on both SA SUFFIT (14/1 with Paddy Power, BOG) and ALDERTUNE (12/1 with Corals).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Today we have what looks to be a cracking days racing over the jumps with top-class meetings at Ascot and Haydock, plus another at Wincanton.
At Ascot, I like the look of the mares hurdle at 2:05 as the market is made by the fav Kentford Grey Lady who looked very impressive when winning LTO. Ordinarily, I would go for the fav but the fact that VIOLIN DAVIS who was 3rd that day is returning for a rematch looks interesting. This race is quite likely to be a severe test of stamina with Kaffie likely to make the pace strong thru’out. I can’t have the Irish challenger Our Girl Salley as I reckon the going will not be soft enough for her, and she’s trying 3-mile for the first time. VIOLIN DAVIS at 11/2 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power) looks a fair wager, as I’d be happy with 3/1.
The handicap hurdle at 2:35 was a race in which I was hoping to see BOBBY EWING return to the track. Look him up, his form suggests his OR139 hurdle rating is ludicrously low and I can see this horse winning a top hurdle handicap on his return. However, he misses this race and so I have to look elsewhere, and CICERON who won LTO looks the best value at 11/2. Alan King’s Smad Place looks over-rated at OR144 (I’d have him about 7lb less) and A Bridge Too Far has already been shown lacking at this step-up in trip wont help. Both Joseph Lister and Shoreacres want further than 2m3f, and I can’t really see Torpichen (also trained by Alan King) being involved off OR142, and Royal Charm is on a recovery mission in this. Going right-handed could well help Pateese show improved form, but again his mark of OR138 looks a tad high and the going is also possibly too lively for him. CICERON won LTO in a very fast time beating a well-handicapped rival into 2nd and has only been raised 7lb to OR136. Considering he won at Taunton off OR135 last February, this is well within his grasp and he should be less than 3/1 for this.
The Victor Chandler Chase revolves around Al Ferof who, if he’s as good as Paul Nicholls reckons, will win this. Last March, he won what looks to have been a very strong Supreme Novices Hurdle and if it comes to a test of speed after the final fence then he’ll take some beating. However, both Al Ferof and Finian’s Rainbow are up against half-a-dozen high class chasers and any flaws in their jumping ability at speed will be exposed. As such, I cannot have Finian’s Rainbow whose jumping has never been convincing and was fortunate to be 2nd in what looks to have been a sub-standard Arkle last March. SOMERSBY is the highest rated horse in the race by 4lbs and is game and consistent. He will either relish this drop in trip from the 3-mile of the King George (was well there till after 4-out) or he may find things happening too quickly. Wishful Thinking has never looked a natural 2-mile chaser. As for Gauvain, all his best form is usually in the autumn, and he was stuffed in this race last season. He has been made the Pricewise selection so the 8/1 has gone and he’s best-priced at 6/1 generally now. You cannot really take the chances of the other runners seriously as they are well below the standard required to win. SOMERSBY at 11/2 is worthy of a small wager and I’d be very happy if he could win, but I reckon he’ll be seen at his best in the Ryanair at the Festival. As such, I’m strongly tempted by the 100/30 on AL FEROF (William Hill).
Ascot’s card is tremendous and the 3:45 is another exciting race. I could easily name half the field as having realistic chances and with 15 going to post, so only 3 places available, it is too tight a heat; altho’ SA SUFFIT is a horse who looks well handicapped and if the going is softer than advertised he could go well. The 2-mile trip was too short for his LTO even so he was bang there at the finish, and before that he had no chance against Always Right at Kelso over 3-mile on 4th December. He may not have the class to win this but at 14/1 (so long as the going is soft) he is a solid eachway chance.
Unfortunately for Haydock who hold the Peter Marsh Chase, the going there is heavy, and I can see there being more than a few non-runners. I never like betting on heavy going so I’m giving the meeting a miss.
Wincanton has better going, and the class 3 chase at 2:10 could be an interesting opening for ALDERTUNE. Only 3 of the 13 runners are aged under 10yo, so they are all in the main well-exposed and holding no secrets from the handicapper. As such, I reckon the winner will come from one of the other 3 of ALDERTUNE, Zarrafakt and Diamond Brook. I think this 3m1f trip will be too much for Zarrafakt who is probably best at 2m6f. Diamond Brook looks one-paced at this sort of trip and he needs to show improvement. As for ALDERTUNE, he was well thought of as a hurdler by Nicholls and he really should have won more races (has come 2nd 6 times in 15 starts). His form has worked out well this season, especially his close 4th in the Southern National to Giles Cross. LTO he hated the heavy going, but he’s been well rested since then with a 7 week break, and he can improve enough to take this race at rewarding odds.
Selections:
Ascot 2:35, CICERON, 1pt win @ 11/2 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Ascot 3:10, AL FEROF, 1pt win @ 100/30 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
These are my early wagers, tho’ depending on how the ground is, there could well be an additional wagers on both SA SUFFIT (14/1 with Paddy Power, BOG) and ALDERTUNE (12/1 with Corals).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 26 December 2011
Boxing Day spectacular
The 411th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
What a day we have in store today. Perhaps the most intriguing days racing we’ve had for many a day with reputations to be earned, restored and confirmed.
We have a huge amount of racing with meetings up and down the country so it won’t be possible to focus on it all.
Kempton hosts the day’s feature meeting and what a cracker of a day. The King George VI Chase sees the return of the battle for supremacy of Long Run and Kauto Star. Defending champion Long Run should be the fav for the race but odds of 11/8 are too short for me. I reckon that Long Run rates 170 (not OR182, and certainly not RPR187) and that puts him within striking distance of Diamond Harry if he’s in the form that he won the 2010 Hennessey Gold Cup. Both horses should come on for their run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock won by Kauto Star. As for Kauto, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he will maintain the form of his Betfair Chase win but he may need to improve on that run to win today; the reason why is that this renewal looks one of the best we’ve seen in recent years. Captain Chris could well be a 170+ chaser in time, but he’s had an interrupted preparation and as such it is going to be a superlative performance for him to win. I really cannot see Master Minded staying this trip as the pace will be hot from the off with Golan Way almost certainly taking-on Kauto Star for the lead. He’s been called a few names, but Somersby is consistent and he’s also something to prove on his latest run. If he recaptures his best form then he could still be there in with a chance at the 2nd-last. I would make Long Run the 5/2 fav with Kauto Star at 9/2 and DIAMOND HARRY at 6/1 and that makes him the eachway value at 20/1 (Ladbrokes).
On the lead-up to the King George, we have a couple of novice chases which should see GRANDS CRUS winning the Feltham at 2:00, and before that the novice handicap looks very competitive tho’ I do like the chance of BLESS THE WINGS (9/1 with Stan James). Earlier this year, BINOCULAR won the previous Christmas Hurdle and he should do so again, unless Nicholl’s Rock On Ruby is the real-deal. I’d have BINOCULAR at 5/4 for this as he should run 165+ today and that should be good enough.
It’s the last race on the Kempton card that should provide me with a wager, and I’ve been waiting for PANTXOA to step up in trip from 2-mile and this 2m5f should prove his best. He is 9/1 for this with William Hill, quarter-odds to 4-places.
Wetherby has as its feature the Rowland Meyrick Chase at 1:45 and this race is as good as any handicap you’ll see. The fav Always Right will be taken on up front by Midnight Chase and that could be their undoing. Both are exceptional chasers and Always Right could end up the equal of Midnight Chase this season which suggests he’s well-in today. Knockara Beau also looks to be well-handicapped off OR143, but I feel he wants extreme trips of 3m4f+ to show his best. As such, I’m sticking with my Hennessey selection SARANDO who I fell will appreciate today’s easier “soft” going. He’s at 8/1 which is fair, but I’d hope for a little more perhaps 10/1. One that could shake them all up if he continues his improvement is HELPSTON who runs from 7lb out of the handicap and is 20/1, but he’s never looked his best on soft going.
On day’s like this it pays to pick and choose your targets as there will be plenty of value out there and you cannot possibly consider all the racing. The top races will be well-covered by the market, so look for some of the smaller races at the other meetings. Also pay attention to non-runners, as what may be a good price in the morning may not be by race-time; and vice versa. You may think your selection has a fair chance but if the danger is a non-runner suddenly yours is well-in. I was looking at Wincanton’s 1:40 and DIEREADH RE looked huge at 3/1 in the morning papers, but a couple of non-runners means the price has collapsed to 13/8. That’s no good to me, but if you’re having a multiple bet to small stakes for fun, then this is a decent addition. Another is WIDE RECIEVER at Market Rasen in the 1:35.
At Wincanton, SHAKING HANDS runs in the class 3 handicap chase at 2:50 renewing rivalry with Drybrook Bedouin on 2lb better terms. Both will enjoy this trip, tho’ it will suit SHAKING HANDS better, and he can win at useful odds of 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed).
Kim Bailey has won the handicap chase at Huntingdon (12:45) 3 times in recent years, and he’s entered BISHOPHILL JACK a 5yo who won his first chase LTO. That wasn’t great form, but this isn’t that competitive a race, and tho’ odds of 5/2 are skinny he should do the biz.
I’m going to keep looking at today’s racing as there will be plenty of fluctuation in the markets and opportunities will arise. If I spot any, then I will try and post a comment to this blog, but more likely I will advise of the fact on twitter via @wayward_lad.
Selections:
Kempton 3:40, PANTXOA, 1pt eachway @ 9/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wetherby 1:45, SARANDO, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 2:50, SHAKING HANDS, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it. The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain so, if you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.
All comments are welcome.
What a day we have in store today. Perhaps the most intriguing days racing we’ve had for many a day with reputations to be earned, restored and confirmed.
We have a huge amount of racing with meetings up and down the country so it won’t be possible to focus on it all.
Kempton hosts the day’s feature meeting and what a cracker of a day. The King George VI Chase sees the return of the battle for supremacy of Long Run and Kauto Star. Defending champion Long Run should be the fav for the race but odds of 11/8 are too short for me. I reckon that Long Run rates 170 (not OR182, and certainly not RPR187) and that puts him within striking distance of Diamond Harry if he’s in the form that he won the 2010 Hennessey Gold Cup. Both horses should come on for their run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock won by Kauto Star. As for Kauto, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he will maintain the form of his Betfair Chase win but he may need to improve on that run to win today; the reason why is that this renewal looks one of the best we’ve seen in recent years. Captain Chris could well be a 170+ chaser in time, but he’s had an interrupted preparation and as such it is going to be a superlative performance for him to win. I really cannot see Master Minded staying this trip as the pace will be hot from the off with Golan Way almost certainly taking-on Kauto Star for the lead. He’s been called a few names, but Somersby is consistent and he’s also something to prove on his latest run. If he recaptures his best form then he could still be there in with a chance at the 2nd-last. I would make Long Run the 5/2 fav with Kauto Star at 9/2 and DIAMOND HARRY at 6/1 and that makes him the eachway value at 20/1 (Ladbrokes).
On the lead-up to the King George, we have a couple of novice chases which should see GRANDS CRUS winning the Feltham at 2:00, and before that the novice handicap looks very competitive tho’ I do like the chance of BLESS THE WINGS (9/1 with Stan James). Earlier this year, BINOCULAR won the previous Christmas Hurdle and he should do so again, unless Nicholl’s Rock On Ruby is the real-deal. I’d have BINOCULAR at 5/4 for this as he should run 165+ today and that should be good enough.
It’s the last race on the Kempton card that should provide me with a wager, and I’ve been waiting for PANTXOA to step up in trip from 2-mile and this 2m5f should prove his best. He is 9/1 for this with William Hill, quarter-odds to 4-places.
Wetherby has as its feature the Rowland Meyrick Chase at 1:45 and this race is as good as any handicap you’ll see. The fav Always Right will be taken on up front by Midnight Chase and that could be their undoing. Both are exceptional chasers and Always Right could end up the equal of Midnight Chase this season which suggests he’s well-in today. Knockara Beau also looks to be well-handicapped off OR143, but I feel he wants extreme trips of 3m4f+ to show his best. As such, I’m sticking with my Hennessey selection SARANDO who I fell will appreciate today’s easier “soft” going. He’s at 8/1 which is fair, but I’d hope for a little more perhaps 10/1. One that could shake them all up if he continues his improvement is HELPSTON who runs from 7lb out of the handicap and is 20/1, but he’s never looked his best on soft going.
On day’s like this it pays to pick and choose your targets as there will be plenty of value out there and you cannot possibly consider all the racing. The top races will be well-covered by the market, so look for some of the smaller races at the other meetings. Also pay attention to non-runners, as what may be a good price in the morning may not be by race-time; and vice versa. You may think your selection has a fair chance but if the danger is a non-runner suddenly yours is well-in. I was looking at Wincanton’s 1:40 and DIEREADH RE looked huge at 3/1 in the morning papers, but a couple of non-runners means the price has collapsed to 13/8. That’s no good to me, but if you’re having a multiple bet to small stakes for fun, then this is a decent addition. Another is WIDE RECIEVER at Market Rasen in the 1:35.
At Wincanton, SHAKING HANDS runs in the class 3 handicap chase at 2:50 renewing rivalry with Drybrook Bedouin on 2lb better terms. Both will enjoy this trip, tho’ it will suit SHAKING HANDS better, and he can win at useful odds of 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed).
Kim Bailey has won the handicap chase at Huntingdon (12:45) 3 times in recent years, and he’s entered BISHOPHILL JACK a 5yo who won his first chase LTO. That wasn’t great form, but this isn’t that competitive a race, and tho’ odds of 5/2 are skinny he should do the biz.
I’m going to keep looking at today’s racing as there will be plenty of fluctuation in the markets and opportunities will arise. If I spot any, then I will try and post a comment to this blog, but more likely I will advise of the fact on twitter via @wayward_lad.
Selections:
Kempton 3:40, PANTXOA, 1pt eachway @ 9/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wetherby 1:45, SARANDO, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 2:50, SHAKING HANDS, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it. The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain so, if you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.
All comments are welcome.
Tuesday, 13 December 2011
Revenge is best served cold
The 402nd edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.
No blog yesterday, and this blog is being written and posted remotely – so please bear with me as once it's posted I have no ability to amend it if the text colour is difficult to read.
A couple of jumps meetings today at Catterick and Folkestone.
There are a few horses from my personal alert list running including Monsieur Jourdain who won LTO at 14/1. He goes for the 1:50 at Catterick over 3m & 1½f and I'm not entirely sure that he will stay this trip. He was caught towards the end of both his recent races and only won LTO as his challenger fell at the last fence. Behind him LTO was Quel Ballistic and he will enjoy the extra 3f today, but one that I think will relish the test of stamina even more is DYSTONIA's REVENGE who is a winner of 4 (from 7) PTP's. He's struggled to complete rules races (only 4 completed from 8 starts) but his latest (30Nov) when he just failed to win in fast time suggests improvement. Eighteen Carat will likely lead (or dispute the lead) but he's another who isn't guaranteed to stay beyond 2m 6f. DYSTONIA'S REVENGE is 12/1 (Blue Square & Bet365) and looks worthy of a small ew wager.
The 1:20 at Catterick sees the hurdling debut of ex-Cumani trained horse BOURNE, but he meets the useful looking CRACKENTORP who won LTO 12-days ago and that experience could prove decisive. Not a race to get heavily involved in tho' unless you know something that I don't.
The 3m & 1½f handicap hurdle at 2:20 sees OVERYOU return to a more suitable trip. He appears to have stamina to burn as he's won 2 of 3 races over 2m6f+ but is 0 from 14 over shorter trips. This lower grade race will suit him better too. As such, I reckon he should be much shorter than the 18/1 offered by Corals as he's only 8/1 in the Racing Post betting Forecast. He has to be worth an eachway wager given there are 17-runners.
At Folkestone, in the 1:10 we see the chasing debut of recent hurdling winner EMMASLEGEND who is a half-sister to the useful Aimigayle. If she's been well schooled - and Suzy Smith knows her onions – then she will prove hard to beat especially with her 7lb mares allowance. The final race on today's card, a 3m1f chase, looks like being an interesting one. My old mate Absolute Shambles runs and he may enjoy the competition in this. He ran in snatches LTO, before throwing-in the towel. But there are half-a-dozen that could win this race and it'll be one for watching for me.
I'm not able to access the site's that I post my selections on for monitoring my performance, but if I was able then I'd be seriously considering both DYSTONIA's REVENGE and OVERYOU today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.
All comments are welcome.
M
Sunday, 11 December 2011
JONCOL to take the John Durkan at Punchestown
The 401st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 25
Winners = 5
Points staked = 30pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 13.60pts (ROI = 45.33%)
Yesterday’s meeting at Cheltenham was very informative in my opinion, and should throw-up a fair few winners, possibly even a Festival winner.
It started with the odds-on Hinterland being turned-over by the 14/1 BABY MIX who was having his hurdling debut in England having raced in France till mid-October and only joined trainer Tom George on 21st November, 3 weeks ago. BABY MIX looked very impressive indeed.
The 3-mile novice chase has been won by some decent horses, and 3 times in the past 7 years by Paul Nicholls (with Inchidaly Rock, What A Friend, Cornish Rebel). As such, his winner of this JOIN TOGETHER looks to have a bright future. He fell in his debut chase on 22nd Oct and, based on the form of that race, he may have gone close had he finished. The form of his next run (which he won) has worked out well enough. Mossley did not jump well today in defeat, so that tempers the form of today's race a little, but he was well there till stamina told from 2-out. Mossley is also clearly a smaller horse than JOIN TOGETHER and he may struggle as a chaser. I’d say this run puts JOIN TOGETHER 2nd only to Grands Crus amongst the staying novice chasers and (on a line thru’ Sonofvic) Nicholls will know just how good that one is.
The next race on the card - the class 2 handicap chase - fell apart when Tanks For That and Dave’s Dream both lost their riders at the 4th-last. Takeroc was already beaten when he fell at the next fence as he needs the bare 2-mile on a flat track to show his best. As such, my selection HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO was left in front and very quickly seemed unhappy with the situation with subsequent winner Astracad taking-up the running after the 3rd-last fence. He stayed-on again after the 2nd last (as he was now chasing rather than leading) but he was unable to re-assert his authority on the race. He should stay on OR135 and I feel he’ll be best going right-handed (has won twice at Ludlow) as he held his head oddly, and he could also stay up to 2m4f. As for Rileyev, the sooner he steps up to 2m4f, the better in my opinion.
The novice hurdle was dominated by SEA OF THUNDER – a half-bro’ to champion hurdler MAC’S JOY – who stole a commanding lead going to the final flight with the race at his mercy, but there he fell in spectacular fashion. Given he’d been put in his place by Hazy Tom LTO at Wetherby it could just be that that unbeaten 5yo (who is entered to run at Ascot next week) could be a lot better than the OR143 rating he’s been allotted. Whatever, SEA OF THUNDER is improving fast and looks to be OR140+ and might yet be worthy of being mentioned in the same sentence as his illustrious half-bro’.
The feature race of the meeting, the Spinal Research Gold Cup, went to Quantitativeeasing, a horse that I was not surprised to see win over a course and trip that he has excelled at. He has improved with every run prior to today, but in this race he matched his best effort and he may find life tough when re-rated as he’ll surely go up at least 7lb. Medermit in 2nd is as consisitent a horse as you’ll find and runs to the same level over fences as he did as a hurdler, 157-159. He is the benchmark for this race. Roudoudouville had the race won jumping the last, but the Cheltenham hill claimed him. If he stays on OR145 he can win a race over 2m4f. As for my selection GHIZAO, he made a couple of errors in his jumping and at halfway I’d almost given up on him. But, at the top o’the hill he travelled quickly into contention and looked to be travelling best after 3-out and landed in 3rd at the 2nd-last. However, he did not stay the final couple of furlongs and his effort petered-out. The tactical speed he showed in this competitive race marked him out as a classy horse, and a race over 2m1f or 2m2f could see him at his best. I still think he has the potential to run well in the QM Champion Chase next March for which he is 33/1.
The Grade 2 International hurdle produced another top hurdler in GRANDOUET for Nicky Henderson to go alongside Binocular, and Oskar Whisky. The runner-up Overturn won the Fighting Fifth hurdle last week and I reckon matched that performance in this, which puts GRANDOUET at about 160 (Overturn has never run better than 160, so where the handicapper gets OR168 from is anyone’s guess). Overturn will never win a Champion Hurdle, but GRANDOUET might. The RP’s race analysis tries to dampen down GRANDOUET’s Champion Hurdle potential by coming out with the “5yo’s don’t run well in the Champion Hurdle” bunkum, which should be binned alongside “2½ milers go well in the National”, and “French-breds don’t stay the National trip”. Let’s look at the facts:-
In 2011 – 2 x 5yo’s ran, Clerks Choice (6th) and Mille Chief (last of 11).
In 2010 - a 5yo was 3rd (Zaynar),
in 2009 - 5yo's came 2nd, 3rd and 4th (Celestial Halo, Binocular, Crack Away Jack - 23 ran)
In 2008 - a 5yo's came 1st and 3rd (Katchit, Punjabi - the only 2 5yo's in the race)
In 2007 - a 5yo came 3rd (Afsoun) with the only other 5yo (Detroit City) in 6th.
In 2006 - there were 3 x 5yo's in the race rated, OR145, OR147 and OR154
In last 5 years, 5yo's have filled 7 of the 16 available places (was 4th paid in 2009?) - that's a helluva strike-rate for an "age" so easily dissed – when they only provided 10 of the total 71 runners in those 5 years! On those stats, I’d say every 5yo that runs in the Champion Hurdle should be backed.
Along with GRANDOUET, the 3rd-placed horse BRAMPOUR ran in last March’s Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, and this is looking like having been a classic year for the 4yo’s.
The final race on the day’s entertaining card saw OSCAR WHISKY win at odds-on. He is the best performing hurdler this side of the Irish Sea seen this autumn and should be a lot shorter than 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle. The reason he’s not is that he’s probably more likely to go for the World Hurdle (for which he’s 8/1) and whether that’s the case will likely be answered if he takes up his entry for the Long Walk Hurdle next week at Ascot.
At Punchestown today (Sunday) we have the John Durkan Memorial Chase, a Grade 1 event over 2m4f. On official ratings there is very little splitting the main contenders. Top-rated is Rubi Light who will have going and trip in his favour but, for me, the jury is still out on whether he is really an OR164 horse, as he wasn’t beating OR137 rated Coolcashin much when he fell at the last (was re-mounted and finished 3rd) LTO. JONCOL will also love the trip and going and won this race 2 years ago as a 6yo. For me, he is the one they all have to beat. Were this race over 3-mile, I would not hesitate in nominating Kempes as I feel he needs further than 2m4f.The trip and going will also suit Tranquil Sea, but I feel he’s more of a 155-157 rated chaser, whereas JONCOL is 160-163. Interestingly, Barry Geraghty who rode both these horses when they last ran (and won on both) has opted for Tranquil Sea, and so Paul Carberry has the ride on JONCOL. If Geraghty’s choice results in the odds shortening on Tranquil Sea (from 7/2) then it could be that I can obtain 3/1 or even 7/2 about JONCOL and that would represent value in my book as at his current odds of 5/2 the market has it about right.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 25
Winners = 5
Points staked = 30pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 13.60pts (ROI = 45.33%)
Yesterday’s meeting at Cheltenham was very informative in my opinion, and should throw-up a fair few winners, possibly even a Festival winner.
It started with the odds-on Hinterland being turned-over by the 14/1 BABY MIX who was having his hurdling debut in England having raced in France till mid-October and only joined trainer Tom George on 21st November, 3 weeks ago. BABY MIX looked very impressive indeed.
The 3-mile novice chase has been won by some decent horses, and 3 times in the past 7 years by Paul Nicholls (with Inchidaly Rock, What A Friend, Cornish Rebel). As such, his winner of this JOIN TOGETHER looks to have a bright future. He fell in his debut chase on 22nd Oct and, based on the form of that race, he may have gone close had he finished. The form of his next run (which he won) has worked out well enough. Mossley did not jump well today in defeat, so that tempers the form of today's race a little, but he was well there till stamina told from 2-out. Mossley is also clearly a smaller horse than JOIN TOGETHER and he may struggle as a chaser. I’d say this run puts JOIN TOGETHER 2nd only to Grands Crus amongst the staying novice chasers and (on a line thru’ Sonofvic) Nicholls will know just how good that one is.
The next race on the card - the class 2 handicap chase - fell apart when Tanks For That and Dave’s Dream both lost their riders at the 4th-last. Takeroc was already beaten when he fell at the next fence as he needs the bare 2-mile on a flat track to show his best. As such, my selection HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO was left in front and very quickly seemed unhappy with the situation with subsequent winner Astracad taking-up the running after the 3rd-last fence. He stayed-on again after the 2nd last (as he was now chasing rather than leading) but he was unable to re-assert his authority on the race. He should stay on OR135 and I feel he’ll be best going right-handed (has won twice at Ludlow) as he held his head oddly, and he could also stay up to 2m4f. As for Rileyev, the sooner he steps up to 2m4f, the better in my opinion.
The novice hurdle was dominated by SEA OF THUNDER – a half-bro’ to champion hurdler MAC’S JOY – who stole a commanding lead going to the final flight with the race at his mercy, but there he fell in spectacular fashion. Given he’d been put in his place by Hazy Tom LTO at Wetherby it could just be that that unbeaten 5yo (who is entered to run at Ascot next week) could be a lot better than the OR143 rating he’s been allotted. Whatever, SEA OF THUNDER is improving fast and looks to be OR140+ and might yet be worthy of being mentioned in the same sentence as his illustrious half-bro’.
The feature race of the meeting, the Spinal Research Gold Cup, went to Quantitativeeasing, a horse that I was not surprised to see win over a course and trip that he has excelled at. He has improved with every run prior to today, but in this race he matched his best effort and he may find life tough when re-rated as he’ll surely go up at least 7lb. Medermit in 2nd is as consisitent a horse as you’ll find and runs to the same level over fences as he did as a hurdler, 157-159. He is the benchmark for this race. Roudoudouville had the race won jumping the last, but the Cheltenham hill claimed him. If he stays on OR145 he can win a race over 2m4f. As for my selection GHIZAO, he made a couple of errors in his jumping and at halfway I’d almost given up on him. But, at the top o’the hill he travelled quickly into contention and looked to be travelling best after 3-out and landed in 3rd at the 2nd-last. However, he did not stay the final couple of furlongs and his effort petered-out. The tactical speed he showed in this competitive race marked him out as a classy horse, and a race over 2m1f or 2m2f could see him at his best. I still think he has the potential to run well in the QM Champion Chase next March for which he is 33/1.
The Grade 2 International hurdle produced another top hurdler in GRANDOUET for Nicky Henderson to go alongside Binocular, and Oskar Whisky. The runner-up Overturn won the Fighting Fifth hurdle last week and I reckon matched that performance in this, which puts GRANDOUET at about 160 (Overturn has never run better than 160, so where the handicapper gets OR168 from is anyone’s guess). Overturn will never win a Champion Hurdle, but GRANDOUET might. The RP’s race analysis tries to dampen down GRANDOUET’s Champion Hurdle potential by coming out with the “5yo’s don’t run well in the Champion Hurdle” bunkum, which should be binned alongside “2½ milers go well in the National”, and “French-breds don’t stay the National trip”. Let’s look at the facts:-
In 2011 – 2 x 5yo’s ran, Clerks Choice (6th) and Mille Chief (last of 11).
In 2010 - a 5yo was 3rd (Zaynar),
in 2009 - 5yo's came 2nd, 3rd and 4th (Celestial Halo, Binocular, Crack Away Jack - 23 ran)
In 2008 - a 5yo's came 1st and 3rd (Katchit, Punjabi - the only 2 5yo's in the race)
In 2007 - a 5yo came 3rd (Afsoun) with the only other 5yo (Detroit City) in 6th.
In 2006 - there were 3 x 5yo's in the race rated, OR145, OR147 and OR154
In last 5 years, 5yo's have filled 7 of the 16 available places (was 4th paid in 2009?) - that's a helluva strike-rate for an "age" so easily dissed – when they only provided 10 of the total 71 runners in those 5 years! On those stats, I’d say every 5yo that runs in the Champion Hurdle should be backed.
Along with GRANDOUET, the 3rd-placed horse BRAMPOUR ran in last March’s Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, and this is looking like having been a classic year for the 4yo’s.
The final race on the day’s entertaining card saw OSCAR WHISKY win at odds-on. He is the best performing hurdler this side of the Irish Sea seen this autumn and should be a lot shorter than 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle. The reason he’s not is that he’s probably more likely to go for the World Hurdle (for which he’s 8/1) and whether that’s the case will likely be answered if he takes up his entry for the Long Walk Hurdle next week at Ascot.
At Punchestown today (Sunday) we have the John Durkan Memorial Chase, a Grade 1 event over 2m4f. On official ratings there is very little splitting the main contenders. Top-rated is Rubi Light who will have going and trip in his favour but, for me, the jury is still out on whether he is really an OR164 horse, as he wasn’t beating OR137 rated Coolcashin much when he fell at the last (was re-mounted and finished 3rd) LTO. JONCOL will also love the trip and going and won this race 2 years ago as a 6yo. For me, he is the one they all have to beat. Were this race over 3-mile, I would not hesitate in nominating Kempes as I feel he needs further than 2m4f.The trip and going will also suit Tranquil Sea, but I feel he’s more of a 155-157 rated chaser, whereas JONCOL is 160-163. Interestingly, Barry Geraghty who rode both these horses when they last ran (and won on both) has opted for Tranquil Sea, and so Paul Carberry has the ride on JONCOL. If Geraghty’s choice results in the odds shortening on Tranquil Sea (from 7/2) then it could be that I can obtain 3/1 or even 7/2 about JONCOL and that would represent value in my book as at his current odds of 5/2 the market has it about right.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 10 December 2011
A landmark page - the 400th blog post
The 400th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 23
Winners = 5
Points staked = 28pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 15.60pts (ROI = 55.71%)
Wow! The 400th blog page, who would’ve thought it?
It’s an auspicious day for the blog, so let’s see if we can mark it with a good winner.
There was no blog yesterday. I’ve just started a new job and the opportunities for sneaking half-an-hour in the morning to write and post-up the blog online are scarce. However, I am working on it and will probably have to resort to writing the blog the evening before racing on the train home from work. The majority of my selections emanate from my personal alert list and, so long as I can keep on top of that, I should be able to maintain my performance.
Thursday’s selections were a little disappointing. THE COCKNEY MACKEM ran a decent enough race and looked like winning 3-out (touched 1.20 in-running) but in the end, he had no effective response when challenged. As for ROSSBRIN, the race came too soon after the bold effort of his previous run.
There are a stack from my alert list running today: they are:-
Cheltenham
12:45 Join Together & Traffic Article
1:20 Takeroc
2:30 Great Endeavour / Ghizao / I’msingingtheblues / Quantitativeeasing / Roudoudou Ville
3:05 Brampour
3:35 Any Given Day & The Knoxs
Doncaster
1:05 Lively Baron & Emmaslegend
2:15 Quite The Man
3:20 Benny Be Good
Lingfield
12:20 Goring One
2:05 Helpston & Carpincho
The feature meeting is Cheltenham. Let’s get to it and the 12:45 has a couple of non-runners now so just 5 go to post. If TRAFFIC ARTICLE repeats his form of his LTO win here over an extended 3-mile then he’s going to need a good one to beat him on today’s terms, at 7/1 he’s the value for me in this.
The 1:20 looks a tricky race on paper. I feel TAKEROC needs a flat track and Cheltenham wont suit him. Tanks For That is best fresh, as he proved LTO, but the runner-up that day HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO looks to have a great chance here as he’s likely got the stamina to stay 2m4f (and he’ll need that today in this over 2m & 110yds) and looks to be improving still. Rileyev will be arriving late on the scene, possibly too late; and Oh Crick seems to find nothing under pressure these days despite travelling well in his races. Astracad has been highly tried and his form is difficult to weigh-up, as such I feel the balance of probabilities lies with HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO at 4/1.
The feature race at 2:30 is very competitive and why it cannot find a decent long-term sponsor is beyond me. Great Endeavour would have won the Hennessey had it been a 3-mile race and I think he is still competitive off OR157 which is 6lb higher than he ran off in the Hennessey. Ditto, I’mSingingtheblues who should be able to win off OR152, but not over this trip. IT would not surprise me to see Quantitativeeasing win today, but then Divers who finished just behind him LTO has a similar chance. Given the ”good” going, I am surprised that GHIZAO runs in this, but his rating of OR154 is (in my opinion) very lenient and he should be 160+. He was not pushed at all LTO after a couple of early errors and Ruby Walsh being in the saddle gives me more confidence. He’s 17/2 with some bookies, and that is too long.
I’m hoping Sanctuaire does not run too big a race in the International hurdle at 3:05 as I reckon his OR150 rating is very exploitable. Let’s hope he’s used as a pacemaker for BRAMPOUR, and drops out early. The Relkeel hurdle at 3:35 should be a near walk-over for OSCAR WHISKY who looks a decent antepost for the Champion Hurdle (if that’s what his target is).
Lingfield has been abandoned as I write this, and there is a further inspection planned at 10:30am at Doncaster
I’ll post this now, and return to Doncaster later if I see a selection there.
Selections
Cheltenham 1:20, HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Cheltenham 2:30, GHIZAO, 1pt win @ 17/2 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 23
Winners = 5
Points staked = 28pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 15.60pts (ROI = 55.71%)
Wow! The 400th blog page, who would’ve thought it?
It’s an auspicious day for the blog, so let’s see if we can mark it with a good winner.
There was no blog yesterday. I’ve just started a new job and the opportunities for sneaking half-an-hour in the morning to write and post-up the blog online are scarce. However, I am working on it and will probably have to resort to writing the blog the evening before racing on the train home from work. The majority of my selections emanate from my personal alert list and, so long as I can keep on top of that, I should be able to maintain my performance.
Thursday’s selections were a little disappointing. THE COCKNEY MACKEM ran a decent enough race and looked like winning 3-out (touched 1.20 in-running) but in the end, he had no effective response when challenged. As for ROSSBRIN, the race came too soon after the bold effort of his previous run.
There are a stack from my alert list running today: they are:-
Cheltenham
12:45 Join Together & Traffic Article
1:20 Takeroc
2:30 Great Endeavour / Ghizao / I’msingingtheblues / Quantitativeeasing / Roudoudou Ville
3:05 Brampour
3:35 Any Given Day & The Knoxs
Doncaster
1:05 Lively Baron & Emmaslegend
2:15 Quite The Man
3:20 Benny Be Good
Lingfield
12:20 Goring One
2:05 Helpston & Carpincho
The feature meeting is Cheltenham. Let’s get to it and the 12:45 has a couple of non-runners now so just 5 go to post. If TRAFFIC ARTICLE repeats his form of his LTO win here over an extended 3-mile then he’s going to need a good one to beat him on today’s terms, at 7/1 he’s the value for me in this.
The 1:20 looks a tricky race on paper. I feel TAKEROC needs a flat track and Cheltenham wont suit him. Tanks For That is best fresh, as he proved LTO, but the runner-up that day HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO looks to have a great chance here as he’s likely got the stamina to stay 2m4f (and he’ll need that today in this over 2m & 110yds) and looks to be improving still. Rileyev will be arriving late on the scene, possibly too late; and Oh Crick seems to find nothing under pressure these days despite travelling well in his races. Astracad has been highly tried and his form is difficult to weigh-up, as such I feel the balance of probabilities lies with HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO at 4/1.
The feature race at 2:30 is very competitive and why it cannot find a decent long-term sponsor is beyond me. Great Endeavour would have won the Hennessey had it been a 3-mile race and I think he is still competitive off OR157 which is 6lb higher than he ran off in the Hennessey. Ditto, I’mSingingtheblues who should be able to win off OR152, but not over this trip. IT would not surprise me to see Quantitativeeasing win today, but then Divers who finished just behind him LTO has a similar chance. Given the ”good” going, I am surprised that GHIZAO runs in this, but his rating of OR154 is (in my opinion) very lenient and he should be 160+. He was not pushed at all LTO after a couple of early errors and Ruby Walsh being in the saddle gives me more confidence. He’s 17/2 with some bookies, and that is too long.
I’m hoping Sanctuaire does not run too big a race in the International hurdle at 3:05 as I reckon his OR150 rating is very exploitable. Let’s hope he’s used as a pacemaker for BRAMPOUR, and drops out early. The Relkeel hurdle at 3:35 should be a near walk-over for OSCAR WHISKY who looks a decent antepost for the Champion Hurdle (if that’s what his target is).
Lingfield has been abandoned as I write this, and there is a further inspection planned at 10:30am at Doncaster
I’ll post this now, and return to Doncaster later if I see a selection there.
Selections
Cheltenham 1:20, HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Cheltenham 2:30, GHIZAO, 1pt win @ 17/2 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 8 December 2011
Is ROLLING ACES a future Gold Cup winner?
The 399th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)
Another day without a firm “blog” selection yesterday, but mine is not a blog that puts up selections just for the sake of it. I wager my own money on each and every selection to the level of £40 a point, and if I can’t find a selection to risk my money on then I’m not going to risk my readers money on it.
I can’t say fairer than that, can I?
Today it is going to be a brief blog as altho’ there are 3 meetings and the one at Huntingdon features the Peterborough Chase, today (Thursday) is the first day of a new venture for me and I am writing this blog on Wednesday evening as I can’t guarantee getting this blog online on Thursday.
As I said, 3 meetings at Huntingdon, Ludlow and Taunton.
The Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon at 2:00pm should be won by SOMERSBY as he is about 10lb ahead (in my opinion) of his nearest rival which is The Nightingale. If I could get the Racing Post betting forecast odds of 9/4, then I’d make SOMERSBY a 2pt win wager but, as I write, the odds for SOMERSBY are just 7/4 and - while that is still “value” (I reckon he should be odds-on at 4/5) – it is against my principles to recommend a wager at those odds. It may be worth wagering on a straight-forecast: SOMERSBY to beat The Nightingale.
At Ludlow, there is a very interesting chase handicap at 2:40. ROSSBRIN was most unlucky to meet a horse with unlimited stamina LTO, and there is little chance of that tomorrow as most of these are fairly well exposed. Roseneath is up another 8lb for a fairly ordinary win LTO. Inside Dealer strikes me as a horse that prefers trips less than 3-mile. Simply Wings wants the going soft/heavy (it is “good” going). Rockiteer has gone up 9lbs for winning a weak race LTO and he will struggle off OR126. Midnight Haze will also find the going on the quick side for him, but he is an interesting runner who goes well fresh. Cast Cada has won all 3 times he’s raced at this trip, but he usually needs a run and this looks competitive for him. Oscar Prairie has questions to answer after his run LTO, tho’ if he were pulled-up in haste he could be an interesting runner. As for Pigeon Island, is this trip really what he needs? He will be running-on late, but will it be too late? ROSSBRIN is 11/2 (Paddy Power) and that looks more than fair as we know he’s fit, jumps well, goes right-handed, and he runs off the same rating as last week.
Before then, at 1:10pm, we see THE COCKNEY MACKEM return to the track after he unseated LTO. I reckon he is much better than OR122 and so long as we don’t see another novice-style error, he should win this easily as some of the others look handicapped to the hilt on what they’ve shown over fences so far. Vic Chandler go 11/4 and that looks more than fair.
At Taunton, I reckon we will see the next step to eventual grade 1 chase glory of ROLLING ACES from the Paul Nicholls stable. Trainers like Nicholls follow certain paths with their better horses and, so far, ROLLING ACES is following in the footsteps of Denman.
Selections
Ludlow 1:10, THE COCKNEY MACKEM, 1pt win @ 11/4 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Ludlow 2:40, ROSSBRIN, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power, BOG)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)
Another day without a firm “blog” selection yesterday, but mine is not a blog that puts up selections just for the sake of it. I wager my own money on each and every selection to the level of £40 a point, and if I can’t find a selection to risk my money on then I’m not going to risk my readers money on it.
I can’t say fairer than that, can I?
Today it is going to be a brief blog as altho’ there are 3 meetings and the one at Huntingdon features the Peterborough Chase, today (Thursday) is the first day of a new venture for me and I am writing this blog on Wednesday evening as I can’t guarantee getting this blog online on Thursday.
As I said, 3 meetings at Huntingdon, Ludlow and Taunton.
The Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon at 2:00pm should be won by SOMERSBY as he is about 10lb ahead (in my opinion) of his nearest rival which is The Nightingale. If I could get the Racing Post betting forecast odds of 9/4, then I’d make SOMERSBY a 2pt win wager but, as I write, the odds for SOMERSBY are just 7/4 and - while that is still “value” (I reckon he should be odds-on at 4/5) – it is against my principles to recommend a wager at those odds. It may be worth wagering on a straight-forecast: SOMERSBY to beat The Nightingale.
At Ludlow, there is a very interesting chase handicap at 2:40. ROSSBRIN was most unlucky to meet a horse with unlimited stamina LTO, and there is little chance of that tomorrow as most of these are fairly well exposed. Roseneath is up another 8lb for a fairly ordinary win LTO. Inside Dealer strikes me as a horse that prefers trips less than 3-mile. Simply Wings wants the going soft/heavy (it is “good” going). Rockiteer has gone up 9lbs for winning a weak race LTO and he will struggle off OR126. Midnight Haze will also find the going on the quick side for him, but he is an interesting runner who goes well fresh. Cast Cada has won all 3 times he’s raced at this trip, but he usually needs a run and this looks competitive for him. Oscar Prairie has questions to answer after his run LTO, tho’ if he were pulled-up in haste he could be an interesting runner. As for Pigeon Island, is this trip really what he needs? He will be running-on late, but will it be too late? ROSSBRIN is 11/2 (Paddy Power) and that looks more than fair as we know he’s fit, jumps well, goes right-handed, and he runs off the same rating as last week.
Before then, at 1:10pm, we see THE COCKNEY MACKEM return to the track after he unseated LTO. I reckon he is much better than OR122 and so long as we don’t see another novice-style error, he should win this easily as some of the others look handicapped to the hilt on what they’ve shown over fences so far. Vic Chandler go 11/4 and that looks more than fair.
At Taunton, I reckon we will see the next step to eventual grade 1 chase glory of ROLLING ACES from the Paul Nicholls stable. Trainers like Nicholls follow certain paths with their better horses and, so far, ROLLING ACES is following in the footsteps of Denman.
Selections
Ludlow 1:10, THE COCKNEY MACKEM, 1pt win @ 11/4 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Ludlow 2:40, ROSSBRIN, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power, BOG)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 7 December 2011
Thanks for the memories
The 397th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)
Another day with no firm selection yesterday, but readers cannot say they don’t get decent advice in the narrative.
SECRET EDGE absolutely hacked-up at Fontwell, as I thought he would. I don’t advise wagers at odds under 5/2 as (especially with jump racing) mishaps can happen even to the best horses and that “risk” factor has to be built-in to your wagers. At £40 a point (the stakes I use) I expect a return of £120 from a 3/1 winner, and that is the minimum return I demand. So, to obtain that from SECRET EDGE yesterday I would have had to wager £210 and that, for me, was too great a risk.
I also looked at the opener at Southwell on the all-weather as there had been a significant move on TAKAJAN in the betting from 7/1 to 11/4. As (in my opinion) his true odds were 5/1 he had been “over-egged” and as such, had gone from a wagering opportunity to a laying opportunity. For those who do not understand value, this race was a great example. With “true” odds at 5/1, those who obtained 7/1 were on at great value. If you have a wager on 12 horses at odds of 7/1 whose true odds are 5/1 then (providing you read the market well) you will win twice and lose ten times resulting in an overall profit (at 1pt per wager) of 4pts or 28.57%ROI. That is good business. But, when that “true” 5/1 chance shortens to 11/4, then it is a rock solid laying opportunity. Does that make sense?
Before I move on from yesterday, may I give a big thanks to G-Star Sports Tips who put me onto the 6/1 winner NANNA MAURA at Sedgefield. The Racing Post BF had NANNA MAURA as the 7/4 fav and, for some reason, several others were supported in the market allowing NANNA MAURA to drift to 6/1. Having looked at the form, NANNA MAURA was easily the most talented in the race, and also had the going in her favour; what’s more she was proven at the trip. No other horse met these basic criteria and the RP had it right – she should have been the 7/4 fav. Her Irish-based trainer JJ Lambe does not have the same reputation here in England as the likes of Gordon Elliot and others, but he’s no mug. And I can only think that office punters found the horses sent by Nicky Richards and Lucinda Russell more sexy.
I bought a Racing & Football Outlook yesterday and it’s not a bad read. One feature that I really like (so much so, that I do the same exercise myself) is their Top Of The Form page were they highlight races run when the form has really worked out well. Spotting such races quickly is invaluable for the punter and much–maligned REVE DE SIVOLA who was 5th to Galaxy Rock recently, is one that could soon be in the winners enclosure at decent odds. For instance, the class 5 novice chase at Kelso on 5th November has produce no less than 4 next-time-out winners (NTOW’s). There is no assessment of Irish races tho’ and at the Punchestown meeting of 28th October (and this meeting has produced 13 NTOW’s so far) the handicap hurdle won by Irish Soul has produced 5 NTOW’s – exceptional.
There are two jumps meetings today at Hexham and Leicester. The going at Hexham is heavy (probably very heavy having been under snow for most of yesterday) and I’m giving that meeting a wide berth. Heavy going and the restrictions on use of the whip mean that form (as we know it) goes out of the window. I’m sure others don’t see it that way, but I’m avoiding heavy going meetings until I know the jockeys and horses know how to act on it.
The meeting at Leicester brings back old memories as I won on the 40/1 winner Bubble Boy in the final race of (what is) today’s card in 2009. That was before I was blogging, but I wrote a write-up on the race with Bubble Boy as the selection under my moniker of Wayward Lad on the Betfair forum. That was quite a day as, having referred to my notebook entries for the day, I had win wagers on 6 horses that day and 5 of them won (the loser being Grand Slam Hero in the same race as Bubble Boy, he was 3rd). It was just after I joined twitter and @Mulldog who was one of my first followers (and is still a presence on twitter) could verify that 40/1 winner.
There is no selection today, as the racing doesn’t provide any value.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)
Another day with no firm selection yesterday, but readers cannot say they don’t get decent advice in the narrative.
SECRET EDGE absolutely hacked-up at Fontwell, as I thought he would. I don’t advise wagers at odds under 5/2 as (especially with jump racing) mishaps can happen even to the best horses and that “risk” factor has to be built-in to your wagers. At £40 a point (the stakes I use) I expect a return of £120 from a 3/1 winner, and that is the minimum return I demand. So, to obtain that from SECRET EDGE yesterday I would have had to wager £210 and that, for me, was too great a risk.
I also looked at the opener at Southwell on the all-weather as there had been a significant move on TAKAJAN in the betting from 7/1 to 11/4. As (in my opinion) his true odds were 5/1 he had been “over-egged” and as such, had gone from a wagering opportunity to a laying opportunity. For those who do not understand value, this race was a great example. With “true” odds at 5/1, those who obtained 7/1 were on at great value. If you have a wager on 12 horses at odds of 7/1 whose true odds are 5/1 then (providing you read the market well) you will win twice and lose ten times resulting in an overall profit (at 1pt per wager) of 4pts or 28.57%ROI. That is good business. But, when that “true” 5/1 chance shortens to 11/4, then it is a rock solid laying opportunity. Does that make sense?
Before I move on from yesterday, may I give a big thanks to G-Star Sports Tips who put me onto the 6/1 winner NANNA MAURA at Sedgefield. The Racing Post BF had NANNA MAURA as the 7/4 fav and, for some reason, several others were supported in the market allowing NANNA MAURA to drift to 6/1. Having looked at the form, NANNA MAURA was easily the most talented in the race, and also had the going in her favour; what’s more she was proven at the trip. No other horse met these basic criteria and the RP had it right – she should have been the 7/4 fav. Her Irish-based trainer JJ Lambe does not have the same reputation here in England as the likes of Gordon Elliot and others, but he’s no mug. And I can only think that office punters found the horses sent by Nicky Richards and Lucinda Russell more sexy.
I bought a Racing & Football Outlook yesterday and it’s not a bad read. One feature that I really like (so much so, that I do the same exercise myself) is their Top Of The Form page were they highlight races run when the form has really worked out well. Spotting such races quickly is invaluable for the punter and much–maligned REVE DE SIVOLA who was 5th to Galaxy Rock recently, is one that could soon be in the winners enclosure at decent odds. For instance, the class 5 novice chase at Kelso on 5th November has produce no less than 4 next-time-out winners (NTOW’s). There is no assessment of Irish races tho’ and at the Punchestown meeting of 28th October (and this meeting has produced 13 NTOW’s so far) the handicap hurdle won by Irish Soul has produced 5 NTOW’s – exceptional.
There are two jumps meetings today at Hexham and Leicester. The going at Hexham is heavy (probably very heavy having been under snow for most of yesterday) and I’m giving that meeting a wide berth. Heavy going and the restrictions on use of the whip mean that form (as we know it) goes out of the window. I’m sure others don’t see it that way, but I’m avoiding heavy going meetings until I know the jockeys and horses know how to act on it.
The meeting at Leicester brings back old memories as I won on the 40/1 winner Bubble Boy in the final race of (what is) today’s card in 2009. That was before I was blogging, but I wrote a write-up on the race with Bubble Boy as the selection under my moniker of Wayward Lad on the Betfair forum. That was quite a day as, having referred to my notebook entries for the day, I had win wagers on 6 horses that day and 5 of them won (the loser being Grand Slam Hero in the same race as Bubble Boy, he was 3rd). It was just after I joined twitter and @Mulldog who was one of my first followers (and is still a presence on twitter) could verify that 40/1 winner.
There is no selection today, as the racing doesn’t provide any value.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 6 December 2011
There is always tomorrow
The 397th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)
No firm selection yesterday, but the one race I focussed on resulted in me spotting the winner in INVICTUS who romped away with the race under an enterprising ride from Robert Thornton. He showed excellent tactical speed and jumped like a stag so, hoping the handicapper isn’t too unkind, he can follow-up.
One I missed from the weekend (and omitted to mention yesterday) was WEST END ROCKER who won the Becher Chase at Aintree on Saturday. He was one of my 3 selections for the National on the day, and he was going well early-on till brought-down at Bechers 1st time round. He was beaten by the heavy going in the National Trial at Haydock (won by Silver By Nature) and had showed himself to be progressive before that. He needed a run last season, and he has done again this. Provided he isn’t hammered by the handicapper (ie raised to OR146+) he should remain competitive NTO.
Occasionally, something catches my eye and makes me look back at previous blogs. Last night I read the Official Handicappers blog on the useful BHA website (see adjacent link) and his assessment of the win of ETON RIFLES in a Listed race on the flat over 6-furlongs at Fontainebleu in France on 24th Nov. He (the Official Handicapper) reckoned it was his best performance of the season and rated him OR111. I typed the name ETON RIFLES into my blog search facility and came up with my assessment of his run last April when 5th in the Lincoln handicap “…trying the mile trip for only the 2nd time, the way (he) stayed-on in this highly competitive race while on the “wrong” side of the track suggests that (he) could be well-handicapped if racing in the right conditions”. ETON RIFLES was rated OR94 then. DUBAI HILLS – also mentioned on that blog in April – looks well placed on OR92 for a return to the AW this winter.
Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings at Sedgefield and Fontwell.
If SECRET EDGE cannot win the opening novice hurdle at Fontwell then there is something wrong, but then he’s quoted at odds of 4/7 this morning. There are some other “interesting” races at Fontwell but they are low grade affairs and with the going there being soft it’s a case of which horse can grind out an sustained effort will win.
The Sedgefield meeting is similar to Fontwell, low-grade racing with little to inspire. As such, I’ll leave well alone. Sometimes the best course of action is to keep your money in your wallet as there is always tomorrow.
I’m not a great fan of the All-Weather racing, but in the opener at noon there has been a significant market move on TAKAJAN from 7/1 in to 11/4 as I write. A couple of other bloggers (James Boyle and Longshot Betting – both have links adjacent) have advised wagers on him at 7/1, but clearly the value has gone now. He’s not in the best of stalls, drawn 7 of the 14 runners, and others – such as Suddenly Susan (drawn 2), Wandering Lad (3), Greenhead High (5), and Prince Of Vasa (6) will make not make it easy for TAKAJAN to dominate the race as he will need to, to win. As such, I would be inclined to place-lay him at 1.80 as he’s the sort that’ll likely win or flop. There is no value at 11/4 in him winning (as his “true” win odds are about 5/1), but there is no way he is odds-on to be placed in this race, and I’d price him at more like 2.50 in the place-only market. Therefore, in my opinion, he is a place-lay at 1.80.
There is no selection today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)
No firm selection yesterday, but the one race I focussed on resulted in me spotting the winner in INVICTUS who romped away with the race under an enterprising ride from Robert Thornton. He showed excellent tactical speed and jumped like a stag so, hoping the handicapper isn’t too unkind, he can follow-up.
One I missed from the weekend (and omitted to mention yesterday) was WEST END ROCKER who won the Becher Chase at Aintree on Saturday. He was one of my 3 selections for the National on the day, and he was going well early-on till brought-down at Bechers 1st time round. He was beaten by the heavy going in the National Trial at Haydock (won by Silver By Nature) and had showed himself to be progressive before that. He needed a run last season, and he has done again this. Provided he isn’t hammered by the handicapper (ie raised to OR146+) he should remain competitive NTO.
Occasionally, something catches my eye and makes me look back at previous blogs. Last night I read the Official Handicappers blog on the useful BHA website (see adjacent link) and his assessment of the win of ETON RIFLES in a Listed race on the flat over 6-furlongs at Fontainebleu in France on 24th Nov. He (the Official Handicapper) reckoned it was his best performance of the season and rated him OR111. I typed the name ETON RIFLES into my blog search facility and came up with my assessment of his run last April when 5th in the Lincoln handicap “…trying the mile trip for only the 2nd time, the way (he) stayed-on in this highly competitive race while on the “wrong” side of the track suggests that (he) could be well-handicapped if racing in the right conditions”. ETON RIFLES was rated OR94 then. DUBAI HILLS – also mentioned on that blog in April – looks well placed on OR92 for a return to the AW this winter.
Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings at Sedgefield and Fontwell.
If SECRET EDGE cannot win the opening novice hurdle at Fontwell then there is something wrong, but then he’s quoted at odds of 4/7 this morning. There are some other “interesting” races at Fontwell but they are low grade affairs and with the going there being soft it’s a case of which horse can grind out an sustained effort will win.
The Sedgefield meeting is similar to Fontwell, low-grade racing with little to inspire. As such, I’ll leave well alone. Sometimes the best course of action is to keep your money in your wallet as there is always tomorrow.
I’m not a great fan of the All-Weather racing, but in the opener at noon there has been a significant market move on TAKAJAN from 7/1 in to 11/4 as I write. A couple of other bloggers (James Boyle and Longshot Betting – both have links adjacent) have advised wagers on him at 7/1, but clearly the value has gone now. He’s not in the best of stalls, drawn 7 of the 14 runners, and others – such as Suddenly Susan (drawn 2), Wandering Lad (3), Greenhead High (5), and Prince Of Vasa (6) will make not make it easy for TAKAJAN to dominate the race as he will need to, to win. As such, I would be inclined to place-lay him at 1.80 as he’s the sort that’ll likely win or flop. There is no value at 11/4 in him winning (as his “true” win odds are about 5/1), but there is no way he is odds-on to be placed in this race, and I’d price him at more like 2.50 in the place-only market. Therefore, in my opinion, he is a place-lay at 1.80.
There is no selection today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 5 December 2011
INVICTUS to show he's worth £162,000
The 396th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)
No blog yesterday (it being a Sunday) so let’s take a look-back at the weekend’s racing.
Just the one selection on Saturday and that was MEANUS DANDY who looked well treated on OR140 based on his previous run in the “Badger” chase. He was still well there when jockey Ruby Walsh pulled-him-up before the 15th of 24 fences as he was lame. Trainer Paul Nicholls reported (on twitter) that he was “sore, but ok”. I reckon he would have been 2nd on Saturday had he completed as (in hindsight) the winner Deep Purple was thrown-in off OR149 given he’d won the Charlie Hall in 2009 and is very much an “autumn” horse having now won 9 of 13 races between 1st Oct-31st Dec, but only 2 of 10 between 1st Jan – 30th Apr.
SIZING EUROPE silenced the doubters in the Tingle Creek with a spectacular performance; as such he remains the one they have to beat in the QM Champion Chase next March. That said, there is not that much between him and Big Zeb, altho’ the latter needs to jump cleanly to produce his best as he is apt to make errors when under pressure. Given their dominance of this division, these two should be shorter odds than 3/1 and 6/1 respectively until another realistic challenger appears. Personally, I reckon that challenger could be Master Minded if Paul Nicholls can find they key to making him return to his best next March, and current odds (20/1 with Sportingodds) suggest he’s worth a few quid antepost. Earlier, AL FEROF won the Henry VIII Grade 1 novice chase but I’m not sure that performance warrants him a 7/1 quote for the Arkle as the horse he beat - For Non Stop – is significantly inferior to him over hurdles and had no chance of matching him on the run-in.
At Aintree, I was right when I said FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent as he massacred what looked to be a competitive field. He comes from a cracking good jumps family and trainer Phil Hobbs knows how to extract plenty of improvement from his mature hurdlers.
At Chepstow on Saturday, an old friend Le Beau Bai finally won again for the 1st time since Feb ’10 (his 12th race since that win). He produced his best form in that period when 2nd (off OR137) on his 2nd run last season when racing over hurdles on heavy going. I recommended him as a selection when 3rd in Haydock’s National Trial (won by Silver By Nature) last March, but he’d looked out of sorts since as he needs an extreme test over on heavy going. As such, thru’ no fault of his own, he’d slipped 10lb’s down to OR127 but I thought the 3-mile trip at Chepstow on Saturday would be too short for him and he’d arrive on the scene too late. He looks well-in (even if he’s raised 10lbs) should he race on heavy going again this season.
Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings; one at my local track of Plumpton and the other at Musselburgh.
At Plumpton, the opening novice hurdles has some interesting recruits from the flat, so get your notebook ready. Next up at 1:10, we have the Irish raider Gift of Dgab sent over by AJ Martin. Martin has even flown-over jockey Davy Russell, but as he’s only given the lad 2 rides in the past 5 years (both were beaten) that’s not a “signpost” for me. For all his renown, Martin has only had 3 chase winners from 64 runners (in chases) in the past 5 years – hardly stats to be scared of. Paul Nicholls has his only runner today in this – Indian Daudaie – but he usually sends hurdlers to Plumpton, and there isn’t a great deal of market support considering the horse has the benefit of the huge 4yo age allowance in this. As such, I reckon Alan King’s INVICTUS, who cost connections £162,000 in April 2010 after winning a 3-mile PTP in Ireland, could go off at generous odds in this when really he should be trading at less than the 5/4 he won at on his chasing debut LTO.
The rest of the card has fairly ordinary races with one-paced runners – a case of which horse happens to be leading after the last fence being the winner; but which will it be?
I can’t see anything worthwhile at Musselburgh at all.
There is no “official” selection today as the only race that looks worthwhile at Plumpton has only 5 runners and, as such, there isn’t likely to be much movement in the odds. The 2/1 about INVICTUS is “fair” but I’d hope for a little more, at least 9/4 but more like 5/2. If I can get 5/2 then I will be having a wager as there is a small doubt about him handling today’s going (soft).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)
No blog yesterday (it being a Sunday) so let’s take a look-back at the weekend’s racing.
Just the one selection on Saturday and that was MEANUS DANDY who looked well treated on OR140 based on his previous run in the “Badger” chase. He was still well there when jockey Ruby Walsh pulled-him-up before the 15th of 24 fences as he was lame. Trainer Paul Nicholls reported (on twitter) that he was “sore, but ok”. I reckon he would have been 2nd on Saturday had he completed as (in hindsight) the winner Deep Purple was thrown-in off OR149 given he’d won the Charlie Hall in 2009 and is very much an “autumn” horse having now won 9 of 13 races between 1st Oct-31st Dec, but only 2 of 10 between 1st Jan – 30th Apr.
SIZING EUROPE silenced the doubters in the Tingle Creek with a spectacular performance; as such he remains the one they have to beat in the QM Champion Chase next March. That said, there is not that much between him and Big Zeb, altho’ the latter needs to jump cleanly to produce his best as he is apt to make errors when under pressure. Given their dominance of this division, these two should be shorter odds than 3/1 and 6/1 respectively until another realistic challenger appears. Personally, I reckon that challenger could be Master Minded if Paul Nicholls can find they key to making him return to his best next March, and current odds (20/1 with Sportingodds) suggest he’s worth a few quid antepost. Earlier, AL FEROF won the Henry VIII Grade 1 novice chase but I’m not sure that performance warrants him a 7/1 quote for the Arkle as the horse he beat - For Non Stop – is significantly inferior to him over hurdles and had no chance of matching him on the run-in.
At Aintree, I was right when I said FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent as he massacred what looked to be a competitive field. He comes from a cracking good jumps family and trainer Phil Hobbs knows how to extract plenty of improvement from his mature hurdlers.
At Chepstow on Saturday, an old friend Le Beau Bai finally won again for the 1st time since Feb ’10 (his 12th race since that win). He produced his best form in that period when 2nd (off OR137) on his 2nd run last season when racing over hurdles on heavy going. I recommended him as a selection when 3rd in Haydock’s National Trial (won by Silver By Nature) last March, but he’d looked out of sorts since as he needs an extreme test over on heavy going. As such, thru’ no fault of his own, he’d slipped 10lb’s down to OR127 but I thought the 3-mile trip at Chepstow on Saturday would be too short for him and he’d arrive on the scene too late. He looks well-in (even if he’s raised 10lbs) should he race on heavy going again this season.
Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings; one at my local track of Plumpton and the other at Musselburgh.
At Plumpton, the opening novice hurdles has some interesting recruits from the flat, so get your notebook ready. Next up at 1:10, we have the Irish raider Gift of Dgab sent over by AJ Martin. Martin has even flown-over jockey Davy Russell, but as he’s only given the lad 2 rides in the past 5 years (both were beaten) that’s not a “signpost” for me. For all his renown, Martin has only had 3 chase winners from 64 runners (in chases) in the past 5 years – hardly stats to be scared of. Paul Nicholls has his only runner today in this – Indian Daudaie – but he usually sends hurdlers to Plumpton, and there isn’t a great deal of market support considering the horse has the benefit of the huge 4yo age allowance in this. As such, I reckon Alan King’s INVICTUS, who cost connections £162,000 in April 2010 after winning a 3-mile PTP in Ireland, could go off at generous odds in this when really he should be trading at less than the 5/4 he won at on his chasing debut LTO.
The rest of the card has fairly ordinary races with one-paced runners – a case of which horse happens to be leading after the last fence being the winner; but which will it be?
I can’t see anything worthwhile at Musselburgh at all.
There is no “official” selection today as the only race that looks worthwhile at Plumpton has only 5 runners and, as such, there isn’t likely to be much movement in the odds. The 2/1 about INVICTUS is “fair” but I’d hope for a little more, at least 9/4 but more like 5/2. If I can get 5/2 then I will be having a wager as there is a small doubt about him handling today’s going (soft).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 3 December 2011
Tremendous 12/1 winner yesterday!
The 395th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 20
Winners = 5
Points staked = 25pts
Profit in month = 18.60pts (ROI = 74.40%)
Tremendous result for the blog yesterday when GOLAN WAY repaid my faith in his form at Aintree last April (when 3rd in the John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase). That form has become the most reliable of last season’s novice chases (the 1st-3 have now won 4 top-chases between them) and at the time it was “rubbished” by renowned form readers – but not me!
I reckon GOLAN WAY ran just below that form yesterday and recorded a 158 performance (I rated his run at Aintree at 159) whereas BOSTONS ANGEL matched his form of the RSA Chase.
What it means is that QUITO DE LA ROQUE really is a proper 165+ chaser (maybe 170+) and should be under 8/1 for the Gold Cup. You have been told, and the facts stand-up for themselves.
I was disappointed with SIZING SYMPHONY, but he really should not have been so long in the odds as 10/1 and clearly, there was something amiss with him – which does not bode well for SIZING EUROPE today.
Anyway, 11pts profit on the day from 2pts staked. What is disappointing is that from the 80-odd regular visitors to the site (and I’m talking about those who have visited more than 10 times) none have (yet) made a donation for the tremendous performance of my selections since 1st November – 18.60pts profit which is a 74.40% return on investment (25pts). I wager to £40 a point and I am £744 in profit for the month.
Onto today, we have a busy day with 4 top meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow, and Wetherby.
At Aintree in the 12:35, FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent but over an extra half-mile today he may be found out.
The Becher Chase at 2:10 will be a spectacle, and will also be the 1st race over the National fences televised by Channel 4 Racing (which has to be the future). Good luck to Channel 4. From my alert list, ANOTHER PALM is a horse I’ve noted as having abundant stamina and usually runs up with the leaders. That will hold him in good stead and odds of 10/1 (Chandlers, Bet365, Hills) suggest he’s worth a small each-way wager.
Today’s premier meeting is at Sandown, and in the Tingle Creek Chase at 3:05, I reckon you can oppose the fav Sizing Europe (see comments above). One of my 3-to-Follow for this jumps season is WISHFUL THINKING and this trip and course will suit him perfectly. If he can’t win today, he won’t be a Grade 1 horse this season. Sportingodds are offering to refund your stakes (up to £50) if Sizing Europe wins and, as he’s the only horse I can see in this field beating WISHFUL THINKING, then I’d take the 11/4 on offer with them. Kauto Stone has potential, but does not have the form in the book.
The “Badger” form was given a huge boost by Benbane Head yesterday (was 2nd to GOLAN WAY) and so I reckon MEANUS DANDY can take the London National at 3:40. Do It For Dalkey is effectively up 18lb for his LTO win and I feel that is too much and he’s facing top performers here. MEANUS DANDY is a course winner (as is Any Currency) and he could be 10lb better than his OR140 rating – which cannot be said of the others. Odds of 11/2 are very fair, as I’d have him the 7/2 fav.
Chepstow has heavy ground and that fills me with dread as it is a testing track at the best of times. It could make for harrowing viewing on the tv.
I have no time to study Wetherby and so no selections for that meeting.
Selections:
Sandown 3:40, MEANUS DANDY, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 20
Winners = 5
Points staked = 25pts
Profit in month = 18.60pts (ROI = 74.40%)
Tremendous result for the blog yesterday when GOLAN WAY repaid my faith in his form at Aintree last April (when 3rd in the John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase). That form has become the most reliable of last season’s novice chases (the 1st-3 have now won 4 top-chases between them) and at the time it was “rubbished” by renowned form readers – but not me!
I reckon GOLAN WAY ran just below that form yesterday and recorded a 158 performance (I rated his run at Aintree at 159) whereas BOSTONS ANGEL matched his form of the RSA Chase.
What it means is that QUITO DE LA ROQUE really is a proper 165+ chaser (maybe 170+) and should be under 8/1 for the Gold Cup. You have been told, and the facts stand-up for themselves.
I was disappointed with SIZING SYMPHONY, but he really should not have been so long in the odds as 10/1 and clearly, there was something amiss with him – which does not bode well for SIZING EUROPE today.
Anyway, 11pts profit on the day from 2pts staked. What is disappointing is that from the 80-odd regular visitors to the site (and I’m talking about those who have visited more than 10 times) none have (yet) made a donation for the tremendous performance of my selections since 1st November – 18.60pts profit which is a 74.40% return on investment (25pts). I wager to £40 a point and I am £744 in profit for the month.
Onto today, we have a busy day with 4 top meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow, and Wetherby.
At Aintree in the 12:35, FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent but over an extra half-mile today he may be found out.
The Becher Chase at 2:10 will be a spectacle, and will also be the 1st race over the National fences televised by Channel 4 Racing (which has to be the future). Good luck to Channel 4. From my alert list, ANOTHER PALM is a horse I’ve noted as having abundant stamina and usually runs up with the leaders. That will hold him in good stead and odds of 10/1 (Chandlers, Bet365, Hills) suggest he’s worth a small each-way wager.
Today’s premier meeting is at Sandown, and in the Tingle Creek Chase at 3:05, I reckon you can oppose the fav Sizing Europe (see comments above). One of my 3-to-Follow for this jumps season is WISHFUL THINKING and this trip and course will suit him perfectly. If he can’t win today, he won’t be a Grade 1 horse this season. Sportingodds are offering to refund your stakes (up to £50) if Sizing Europe wins and, as he’s the only horse I can see in this field beating WISHFUL THINKING, then I’d take the 11/4 on offer with them. Kauto Stone has potential, but does not have the form in the book.
The “Badger” form was given a huge boost by Benbane Head yesterday (was 2nd to GOLAN WAY) and so I reckon MEANUS DANDY can take the London National at 3:40. Do It For Dalkey is effectively up 18lb for his LTO win and I feel that is too much and he’s facing top performers here. MEANUS DANDY is a course winner (as is Any Currency) and he could be 10lb better than his OR140 rating – which cannot be said of the others. Odds of 11/2 are very fair, as I’d have him the 7/2 fav.
Chepstow has heavy ground and that fills me with dread as it is a testing track at the best of times. It could make for harrowing viewing on the tv.
I have no time to study Wetherby and so no selections for that meeting.
Selections:
Sandown 3:40, MEANUS DANDY, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Friday, 2 December 2011
Two long-shots for Sandown
The 394th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
What a day for the blog – yesterday I discussed 3 races and found 2 winners at SP’s of 2/1 and 15/2 plus a 3rd horse who was a neck 2nd at 6/1, and I named none of them as firm selections. Sometimes (and yesterday was one of them) I kick myself for not having enough strength in my own opinions. Just a point win on each of those 3 and I’d have been 8.50pts in profit on the day for 3pts staked. It is the reason why I put in my narrative, so that readers can take my thoughts and opinions and use them to strengthen their own views. I do not take these “winners” into my profit & loss calculations (I wish I did) so my blog is transparent and bears scrutiny; but hey! It’s a lot better having to read some reasoning rather than just a list of horses names, isn’t it?
Before I move on, can I just say that ROSSBRIN was most unlucky yesterday to meet a horse who stays forever running in his debut chase; No Principles. I will support ROSSBRIN again as he jumped his fences very low and at speed, as such he could prove best at around 2m5f. No Principles is a previous course winner at Market Rasen and made-up a lot of ground (despite being impeded by the faller at the 2nd-last) over the final half-mile, he could be one for the marathon chases.
On to today’s racing and we have a grand meeting at Sandown for a Friday. Nicky Henderson can do no wrong at the moment and, as such, his novice Semi Colon will start at short odds for his chase debut in the 1:30 there. Clearly an improving hurdler, this will be different and for all the Henderson talents he cannot guarantee his novice chasers take to the jumps. There are a couple of proven novices in LEXICON LAD and Loch Ba, and altho’ Loch Ba is weighted to reverse their recent meeting, LEXICON LAD looks a horse with potential over the jumps.
Next up, the 2m4f hurdle novice hurdle would not disgrace the Festival itself. Unbeaten Fingal Bay was very impressive LTO, and Simonsig is an unknown – talented, but how good? Jump City will need to improve a lot on what he’s shown so far over a trip that may well stretch his stamina. There are no question-marks over SIZING SYMPHONY and the trip and going will be in his favour. His form from Cheltenham (Peckhamecho in 3rd has won both his races since and is rated OR132, yet was btn 17-lengths in receipt of 8lb) and Fairyhouse looks rock solid, and odds of 9/1 (William Hill) seriously under-estimate his chance.
At 2:30 we have the “Future Stars” chase over 3-mile & 110 yards, and this (in my opinion) hangs on how you rate last year’s novice chase form. I was on BOSTONS ANGEL when he won the RSA at the Festival, and it must be remembered that he is the only horse to beat Quito De La Roque over fences. He was travelling and jumping well before a rare error unshipped his rider LTO and he is a lot better than his rating of OR152 which seriously under-estimates his ability and achievements. He will prove in this that he is a 160+ chaser but, such is his task at the weights, he will need to be at the very top of his game to win today. The reason is GOLAN WAY is better than OR146 and (on a line thru’ Quito De La Roque) could prove up to the task today being in-receipt of 6lb from Bostons Angel. Odds of 10/1 (Ladbrokes) are plain daft given trainer Sheena West’s ability and that the horse is fit from a recent hurdle race.
Exeter features the Devon Marathon chase and Power Pack Jack will no doubt try and make-all as he did LTO. However, I always respect David Pipe’s entries in these long-distance races which he likes to target (since sending Lord Atterbury to be 3rd in the National when still a point-to-point trainer). SHAKING HANDS comes here fresh from a 269-day break and was the fav (at 6/1) for the Devon National here last March. I would be hoping for more than the 6/1 on offer tho’ as these sort of races are a test of strength, not form, and what looks like winning at the 2nd-last could end up a distant 3rd at the post. If I can get 8/1+ then he’ll be a (small) eachway wager.
Selections:
After yesterday, I’m going in with;
Sandown 1:55, SIZING SYMPHONY, 1pt win @ 9/1 (William Hill, BOG)
Sandown 2:30, GOLAN WAY, 1pt win @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
What a day for the blog – yesterday I discussed 3 races and found 2 winners at SP’s of 2/1 and 15/2 plus a 3rd horse who was a neck 2nd at 6/1, and I named none of them as firm selections. Sometimes (and yesterday was one of them) I kick myself for not having enough strength in my own opinions. Just a point win on each of those 3 and I’d have been 8.50pts in profit on the day for 3pts staked. It is the reason why I put in my narrative, so that readers can take my thoughts and opinions and use them to strengthen their own views. I do not take these “winners” into my profit & loss calculations (I wish I did) so my blog is transparent and bears scrutiny; but hey! It’s a lot better having to read some reasoning rather than just a list of horses names, isn’t it?
Before I move on, can I just say that ROSSBRIN was most unlucky yesterday to meet a horse who stays forever running in his debut chase; No Principles. I will support ROSSBRIN again as he jumped his fences very low and at speed, as such he could prove best at around 2m5f. No Principles is a previous course winner at Market Rasen and made-up a lot of ground (despite being impeded by the faller at the 2nd-last) over the final half-mile, he could be one for the marathon chases.
On to today’s racing and we have a grand meeting at Sandown for a Friday. Nicky Henderson can do no wrong at the moment and, as such, his novice Semi Colon will start at short odds for his chase debut in the 1:30 there. Clearly an improving hurdler, this will be different and for all the Henderson talents he cannot guarantee his novice chasers take to the jumps. There are a couple of proven novices in LEXICON LAD and Loch Ba, and altho’ Loch Ba is weighted to reverse their recent meeting, LEXICON LAD looks a horse with potential over the jumps.
Next up, the 2m4f hurdle novice hurdle would not disgrace the Festival itself. Unbeaten Fingal Bay was very impressive LTO, and Simonsig is an unknown – talented, but how good? Jump City will need to improve a lot on what he’s shown so far over a trip that may well stretch his stamina. There are no question-marks over SIZING SYMPHONY and the trip and going will be in his favour. His form from Cheltenham (Peckhamecho in 3rd has won both his races since and is rated OR132, yet was btn 17-lengths in receipt of 8lb) and Fairyhouse looks rock solid, and odds of 9/1 (William Hill) seriously under-estimate his chance.
At 2:30 we have the “Future Stars” chase over 3-mile & 110 yards, and this (in my opinion) hangs on how you rate last year’s novice chase form. I was on BOSTONS ANGEL when he won the RSA at the Festival, and it must be remembered that he is the only horse to beat Quito De La Roque over fences. He was travelling and jumping well before a rare error unshipped his rider LTO and he is a lot better than his rating of OR152 which seriously under-estimates his ability and achievements. He will prove in this that he is a 160+ chaser but, such is his task at the weights, he will need to be at the very top of his game to win today. The reason is GOLAN WAY is better than OR146 and (on a line thru’ Quito De La Roque) could prove up to the task today being in-receipt of 6lb from Bostons Angel. Odds of 10/1 (Ladbrokes) are plain daft given trainer Sheena West’s ability and that the horse is fit from a recent hurdle race.
Exeter features the Devon Marathon chase and Power Pack Jack will no doubt try and make-all as he did LTO. However, I always respect David Pipe’s entries in these long-distance races which he likes to target (since sending Lord Atterbury to be 3rd in the National when still a point-to-point trainer). SHAKING HANDS comes here fresh from a 269-day break and was the fav (at 6/1) for the Devon National here last March. I would be hoping for more than the 6/1 on offer tho’ as these sort of races are a test of strength, not form, and what looks like winning at the 2nd-last could end up a distant 3rd at the post. If I can get 8/1+ then he’ll be a (small) eachway wager.
Selections:
After yesterday, I’m going in with;
Sandown 1:55, SIZING SYMPHONY, 1pt win @ 9/1 (William Hill, BOG)
Sandown 2:30, GOLAN WAY, 1pt win @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 1 December 2011
Venetia Williams back on form
The 393rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
A new month and the Jumps Season is developing nicely with the novice chasers looking a bit above those we saw in the UK last season. There is “talk” that last season’s novices are a poor bunch, but you have to remember that 2 of the 3 novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival were won by Irish horses (Boston’s Angel and Noble Prince) and possibly the best Irish novice chaser of last season – Quito De La Roque – missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree and Punchestown and won both of the graded novice chases there, and then came out and beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal early last month. In my opinion, today’s top “English” chasers are not within a stone of the best (Denman and Kauto Star) of recent times and they are vulnerable. This month should see the first cracks appear and I can see the arrogance of some English writers turning (hopefully) to humility and respect.
No selections yesterday, altho’ I did highlight David Pipe’s only runner of the day POOLE MASTER who was 5/2 until 10 mins before the off, and won at an SP of 11/8.
Also of interest was that Venetia Williams found the winners enclosure with 2 of her 4 runners (at SP’s of 14/1 and 4/1) and her stable – after its customary slow start – is now firing on all cylinders and her runners must be respected, whatever the odds. Venetia has another 4 runners out today.
This afternoon’s meeting at Leicester is all hurdles, and I’m giving that one a miss.
At Wincanton, Paul Nicholls has only one runner out today – Sang Bleu in the 1:40. My only “alert list” horse also runs in this race, Duke Of Lucca, and he may be the value. Sang Bleu was not a good jumper when last seen over fences and, along with Habbie Simpson, has something to prove today. DUKE OF LUCCA has shown he can jump a fence and has been unlucky to meet a couple of good novices in his 2 races this autumn. He should be the fav, and the 2/1 fav at that; as such, at 11/4 (Vic Chandler and others) he is the value especially as he has the going and trip in his favour.
The next race on the card at 2:10 looks a tough one to sort out the winner in. Just The Job could run away with this again as he did LTO, but I cannot see that happening. I can’t see Magot De Grugy repeating his LTO win as he’s a heavy ground horse, and good-to-soft is too slow for Upham Atom. This trip is too far for Nudge And Nurdle, and that leaves Tarquinius and Master Cobbler. If he’s fit, Tarquinius is thrown-in here, but I reckon MASTER COBBLER could be the one to build on his run LTO as this trip could be his best.
The race won by Wyke Hill at Chepstow on 22nd October has thrown-up 4 x NTOW’s (next time out winners); Wyke Hill won again, That’lldoboy has won twice, Wester Ros has won, and so has ROSSBRIN who runs today at Market Rasen in the 2:25. Unfortunately, every man and his dog seems to have spotted this formline and he’s 7/2 across the board. He may have been raised 13lb for his LTO win, but he looks to have plenty of stamina and he can jump – and if he were with a top stable he’d be 7/4 for this. Night In Milan looks the one most likely to try and give him a race.
I will probably regret this but I’m not going to put up a selection today. I will have a small place-only wager to cover a larger win wager on MASTER COBBLER, and if there is a market move for either Henderson’s or McCain’s enties in the Market Rasen 2:25 - and I can get 4/1 or longer on ROSSBRIN - (hopefully, I’ll get 9/2) then I’ll have a wager on him.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
A new month and the Jumps Season is developing nicely with the novice chasers looking a bit above those we saw in the UK last season. There is “talk” that last season’s novices are a poor bunch, but you have to remember that 2 of the 3 novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival were won by Irish horses (Boston’s Angel and Noble Prince) and possibly the best Irish novice chaser of last season – Quito De La Roque – missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree and Punchestown and won both of the graded novice chases there, and then came out and beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal early last month. In my opinion, today’s top “English” chasers are not within a stone of the best (Denman and Kauto Star) of recent times and they are vulnerable. This month should see the first cracks appear and I can see the arrogance of some English writers turning (hopefully) to humility and respect.
No selections yesterday, altho’ I did highlight David Pipe’s only runner of the day POOLE MASTER who was 5/2 until 10 mins before the off, and won at an SP of 11/8.
Also of interest was that Venetia Williams found the winners enclosure with 2 of her 4 runners (at SP’s of 14/1 and 4/1) and her stable – after its customary slow start – is now firing on all cylinders and her runners must be respected, whatever the odds. Venetia has another 4 runners out today.
This afternoon’s meeting at Leicester is all hurdles, and I’m giving that one a miss.
At Wincanton, Paul Nicholls has only one runner out today – Sang Bleu in the 1:40. My only “alert list” horse also runs in this race, Duke Of Lucca, and he may be the value. Sang Bleu was not a good jumper when last seen over fences and, along with Habbie Simpson, has something to prove today. DUKE OF LUCCA has shown he can jump a fence and has been unlucky to meet a couple of good novices in his 2 races this autumn. He should be the fav, and the 2/1 fav at that; as such, at 11/4 (Vic Chandler and others) he is the value especially as he has the going and trip in his favour.
The next race on the card at 2:10 looks a tough one to sort out the winner in. Just The Job could run away with this again as he did LTO, but I cannot see that happening. I can’t see Magot De Grugy repeating his LTO win as he’s a heavy ground horse, and good-to-soft is too slow for Upham Atom. This trip is too far for Nudge And Nurdle, and that leaves Tarquinius and Master Cobbler. If he’s fit, Tarquinius is thrown-in here, but I reckon MASTER COBBLER could be the one to build on his run LTO as this trip could be his best.
The race won by Wyke Hill at Chepstow on 22nd October has thrown-up 4 x NTOW’s (next time out winners); Wyke Hill won again, That’lldoboy has won twice, Wester Ros has won, and so has ROSSBRIN who runs today at Market Rasen in the 2:25. Unfortunately, every man and his dog seems to have spotted this formline and he’s 7/2 across the board. He may have been raised 13lb for his LTO win, but he looks to have plenty of stamina and he can jump – and if he were with a top stable he’d be 7/4 for this. Night In Milan looks the one most likely to try and give him a race.
I will probably regret this but I’m not going to put up a selection today. I will have a small place-only wager to cover a larger win wager on MASTER COBBLER, and if there is a market move for either Henderson’s or McCain’s enties in the Market Rasen 2:25 - and I can get 4/1 or longer on ROSSBRIN - (hopefully, I’ll get 9/2) then I’ll have a wager on him.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 30 November 2011
Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort'men
The 392nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 23.5525pts
Return on Investment = 10.90% (total stakes, 216pts)
Final day of November, and a great result for the month; the full results being:-
1st Nov, GHIZAO, 2pts win @ 11/4; unplaced …2.00pts lost
7th Nov, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
7th Nov, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
7th Nov, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 7/2; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
8th Nov, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
9th Nov, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
9th Nov, SANGFROID, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
11th Nov, CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, LOOSEN MY LOAD, 1pt ew; unplaced …2.00pts lost
12th Nov, WOLF MOON, 1pt win; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
15th Nov, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
16th Nov, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win; lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
19th Nov, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew; WON @ 8/1 …9.60pts PROFIT
21st Nov, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win; lost (3rd of 5) …1.00pts lost
25th Nov, AIGLE D'OR, 2pts win; unplaced …2.00pts lost
26th Nov, WYKE HILL, 1pt win; Fell …1.00pts lost
26th Nov, HUMBIE, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
Selections for November 2011 = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
As can be seen, I am no follower of the fav’s and short-priced horses so the strike-rate of winners to runners is not huge – but, at the end of the day, I’m in profit.
There has been no blog since Sunday as the racing has been dire. To be fair, today’s racing is not much better.
At Hereford, Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort’men, so he must think that the horse has a future over fences. Always best watched these novice chases, especially when horses are jumping a fence for the 1st time in public. One I will be keeping an eye on is TIGER O’TOOLE who is not a bad hurdler (OR136) and his usualy style of running (held-up) could aid him here today over the first couple of fences by enabling to have a look at them and get into a rhythm. He’s 10/1 generally, and I’d rather have a “fiver” on him than risk £25 on one of the 7/4 joint-favs who head the market with the prospect of a similar return.
Later at Hereford, there is an interesting 2-mile h’cap chase at 2:50pm. The fav is Bradford Boris who is on my alert list, but I feel this trip is a bit on the short side for him and that he would prefer another half-mile. He will need to lead and set a decent pace to expose the others in the race, however his jumping hasn’t been fluent in the past. As such, I’m looking elsewhere in the race and Evan Williams (also trainer of Tiger O’Toole) sends the unexposed WESTER ROSS for this. Williams has his stable in top form (8 wins from 21 rnrs in past 14-days) and he has a 21% strike rate with chasers at Hereford. WESTER ROSS appreciated the drop to 2-mile LTO (he does not stay much further) and even tho’ he’s got a 7lb penalty, he is officially 2lb well-in for this. Odds of 9/2 look fair.
David Pipe sends out only one runner today – Poole Master in the 12:40 at Uttoxeter, interesting!
Neil Mulholland also has only one runner today – Big Knickers in the 3:40 at Uttoxeter. The horse looks well handicapped on his run when 2nd to E Street Boy but whether he will stay 3-mile today is the question.
No selections today, I will choose to end the month of November in profit.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 23.5525pts
Return on Investment = 10.90% (total stakes, 216pts)
Final day of November, and a great result for the month; the full results being:-
1st Nov, GHIZAO, 2pts win @ 11/4; unplaced …2.00pts lost
7th Nov, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
7th Nov, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
7th Nov, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 7/2; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
8th Nov, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
9th Nov, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
9th Nov, SANGFROID, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
11th Nov, CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, LOOSEN MY LOAD, 1pt ew; unplaced …2.00pts lost
12th Nov, WOLF MOON, 1pt win; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
15th Nov, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
16th Nov, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win; lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
19th Nov, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew; WON @ 8/1 …9.60pts PROFIT
21st Nov, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win; lost (3rd of 5) …1.00pts lost
25th Nov, AIGLE D'OR, 2pts win; unplaced …2.00pts lost
26th Nov, WYKE HILL, 1pt win; Fell …1.00pts lost
26th Nov, HUMBIE, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
Selections for November 2011 = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
As can be seen, I am no follower of the fav’s and short-priced horses so the strike-rate of winners to runners is not huge – but, at the end of the day, I’m in profit.
There has been no blog since Sunday as the racing has been dire. To be fair, today’s racing is not much better.
At Hereford, Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort’men, so he must think that the horse has a future over fences. Always best watched these novice chases, especially when horses are jumping a fence for the 1st time in public. One I will be keeping an eye on is TIGER O’TOOLE who is not a bad hurdler (OR136) and his usualy style of running (held-up) could aid him here today over the first couple of fences by enabling to have a look at them and get into a rhythm. He’s 10/1 generally, and I’d rather have a “fiver” on him than risk £25 on one of the 7/4 joint-favs who head the market with the prospect of a similar return.
Later at Hereford, there is an interesting 2-mile h’cap chase at 2:50pm. The fav is Bradford Boris who is on my alert list, but I feel this trip is a bit on the short side for him and that he would prefer another half-mile. He will need to lead and set a decent pace to expose the others in the race, however his jumping hasn’t been fluent in the past. As such, I’m looking elsewhere in the race and Evan Williams (also trainer of Tiger O’Toole) sends the unexposed WESTER ROSS for this. Williams has his stable in top form (8 wins from 21 rnrs in past 14-days) and he has a 21% strike rate with chasers at Hereford. WESTER ROSS appreciated the drop to 2-mile LTO (he does not stay much further) and even tho’ he’s got a 7lb penalty, he is officially 2lb well-in for this. Odds of 9/2 look fair.
David Pipe sends out only one runner today – Poole Master in the 12:40 at Uttoxeter, interesting!
Neil Mulholland also has only one runner today – Big Knickers in the 3:40 at Uttoxeter. The horse looks well handicapped on his run when 2nd to E Street Boy but whether he will stay 3-mile today is the question.
No selections today, I will choose to end the month of November in profit.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 26 November 2011
Hennessey Gold Cup ay Newbury
The 390th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 25.5525pts
Return on Investment = 11.94% (total stakes, 214pts)
Yesterday’s selection, AIGLE D’OR, ran a stinker and was well beaten. The only consolation was that I read the market right as he started the 6/4 fav. I was also wrong about Sivola De Sivola in the 3-mile hurdle as I thought he was so unlikely to get the trip that I place-laid him at “evens” on the exchanges. So, 2pts lost on the day – let’s move on.
It’s the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, which is 2nd only to the Grand National in chasing handicaps; in fact this race is a great form-guide to the Grand National, so watch and take note. Regular readers will know that on 7th November I recommended taking the 40/1 about SARANDO for this, and I am not going to swap allegiance now: he’s 14/1 generally (he is 20/1 with Corals). I really think he has an excellent chance in this race, despite a 4lb penalty for his LTO win.
On a busy day like today, 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Bangor and Towcester, it is impossible for me to review every race; so I drop back onto my horse alerts for guidance.
At Newcastle, it is the Fighting Fifth Grade 1 hurdle and tho’ Binocular should win this if at his peak, he usually needs a race and so the value call is race-fit OVERTURN at 3/1. At 3:30, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks to be an opportunity for the improving HUMBIE (a 3 parts bro’ to Denman) as he will enjoy the going and get this trip. That can’t be said for Minella Theatre, and Hey Big Spender will need a personal best to win this off OR150 giving 26lb to HUMBIE who is 6/1.
At Bangor, I was on WOLF MOON when he last ran, and he is well placed to recoup losses today in the 1:20, a 3-mile h’cap chase. However, Alan Kings horses are running well (if not winning) in recent days, and Quotica De Poyans has been gambled on this morning.
Nothing on my alert list is running at Towcester.
Onto Newbury and, in the 1:30, if were not for the Henderson runner Master Fiddle then WYKE HILL would probably be under 3/1 for this. Not every Henderson horse wins (take my selection y’day!) and this trip is a doubt for Master Fiddle as his half-bro’ did not get it. WYKE HILL will likely make all and has absolutely no stamina doubts, he also sets a good pace. Therefore, odds of 6/1 look very generous.
In the 2:05, there are 2 from my alert list in DREAM FUNCTION ( a sister to Captain Chris) and RAYA STAR. This is a tough race for me to crack, and of the two I’d probably go for RAYA STAR, but this is a no-bet race for me.
BIG BUCKS will win the Long Distance Hurdle. Full stop.
I’m already on SARANDO in the Hennessey at 3:10, but from my alert list I reckon MUIRHEAD who won the Munster National in October, has a great eachway chance in a race that will play to his strengths, and at 25/1 with a bookie paying quarter-odds to 5-places (Bet365) he will be staying-on like a train come the final mile.
In the last race on the card, my alert list suggests PERSIAN GATES. He fell LTO when meeting Fistral Beach on 6lb worse terms than today. Unfortunately, he is apt to hit 1 or 2 fences and Newbury takes no prisoners. Another no-bet race for me.
Selection:
Newbury 1:30, WYKE HILL, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Newcastle 3:30, HUMBIE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 25.5525pts
Return on Investment = 11.94% (total stakes, 214pts)
Yesterday’s selection, AIGLE D’OR, ran a stinker and was well beaten. The only consolation was that I read the market right as he started the 6/4 fav. I was also wrong about Sivola De Sivola in the 3-mile hurdle as I thought he was so unlikely to get the trip that I place-laid him at “evens” on the exchanges. So, 2pts lost on the day – let’s move on.
It’s the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, which is 2nd only to the Grand National in chasing handicaps; in fact this race is a great form-guide to the Grand National, so watch and take note. Regular readers will know that on 7th November I recommended taking the 40/1 about SARANDO for this, and I am not going to swap allegiance now: he’s 14/1 generally (he is 20/1 with Corals). I really think he has an excellent chance in this race, despite a 4lb penalty for his LTO win.
On a busy day like today, 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Bangor and Towcester, it is impossible for me to review every race; so I drop back onto my horse alerts for guidance.
At Newcastle, it is the Fighting Fifth Grade 1 hurdle and tho’ Binocular should win this if at his peak, he usually needs a race and so the value call is race-fit OVERTURN at 3/1. At 3:30, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks to be an opportunity for the improving HUMBIE (a 3 parts bro’ to Denman) as he will enjoy the going and get this trip. That can’t be said for Minella Theatre, and Hey Big Spender will need a personal best to win this off OR150 giving 26lb to HUMBIE who is 6/1.
At Bangor, I was on WOLF MOON when he last ran, and he is well placed to recoup losses today in the 1:20, a 3-mile h’cap chase. However, Alan Kings horses are running well (if not winning) in recent days, and Quotica De Poyans has been gambled on this morning.
Nothing on my alert list is running at Towcester.
Onto Newbury and, in the 1:30, if were not for the Henderson runner Master Fiddle then WYKE HILL would probably be under 3/1 for this. Not every Henderson horse wins (take my selection y’day!) and this trip is a doubt for Master Fiddle as his half-bro’ did not get it. WYKE HILL will likely make all and has absolutely no stamina doubts, he also sets a good pace. Therefore, odds of 6/1 look very generous.
In the 2:05, there are 2 from my alert list in DREAM FUNCTION ( a sister to Captain Chris) and RAYA STAR. This is a tough race for me to crack, and of the two I’d probably go for RAYA STAR, but this is a no-bet race for me.
BIG BUCKS will win the Long Distance Hurdle. Full stop.
I’m already on SARANDO in the Hennessey at 3:10, but from my alert list I reckon MUIRHEAD who won the Munster National in October, has a great eachway chance in a race that will play to his strengths, and at 25/1 with a bookie paying quarter-odds to 5-places (Bet365) he will be staying-on like a train come the final mile.
In the last race on the card, my alert list suggests PERSIAN GATES. He fell LTO when meeting Fistral Beach on 6lb worse terms than today. Unfortunately, he is apt to hit 1 or 2 fences and Newbury takes no prisoners. Another no-bet race for me.
Selection:
Newbury 1:30, WYKE HILL, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Newcastle 3:30, HUMBIE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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