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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 26 November 2011
Hennessey Gold Cup ay Newbury
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 25.5525pts
Return on Investment = 11.94% (total stakes, 214pts)
Yesterday’s selection, AIGLE D’OR, ran a stinker and was well beaten. The only consolation was that I read the market right as he started the 6/4 fav. I was also wrong about Sivola De Sivola in the 3-mile hurdle as I thought he was so unlikely to get the trip that I place-laid him at “evens” on the exchanges. So, 2pts lost on the day – let’s move on.
It’s the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, which is 2nd only to the Grand National in chasing handicaps; in fact this race is a great form-guide to the Grand National, so watch and take note. Regular readers will know that on 7th November I recommended taking the 40/1 about SARANDO for this, and I am not going to swap allegiance now: he’s 14/1 generally (he is 20/1 with Corals). I really think he has an excellent chance in this race, despite a 4lb penalty for his LTO win.
On a busy day like today, 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Bangor and Towcester, it is impossible for me to review every race; so I drop back onto my horse alerts for guidance.
At Newcastle, it is the Fighting Fifth Grade 1 hurdle and tho’ Binocular should win this if at his peak, he usually needs a race and so the value call is race-fit OVERTURN at 3/1. At 3:30, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks to be an opportunity for the improving HUMBIE (a 3 parts bro’ to Denman) as he will enjoy the going and get this trip. That can’t be said for Minella Theatre, and Hey Big Spender will need a personal best to win this off OR150 giving 26lb to HUMBIE who is 6/1.
At Bangor, I was on WOLF MOON when he last ran, and he is well placed to recoup losses today in the 1:20, a 3-mile h’cap chase. However, Alan Kings horses are running well (if not winning) in recent days, and Quotica De Poyans has been gambled on this morning.
Nothing on my alert list is running at Towcester.
Onto Newbury and, in the 1:30, if were not for the Henderson runner Master Fiddle then WYKE HILL would probably be under 3/1 for this. Not every Henderson horse wins (take my selection y’day!) and this trip is a doubt for Master Fiddle as his half-bro’ did not get it. WYKE HILL will likely make all and has absolutely no stamina doubts, he also sets a good pace. Therefore, odds of 6/1 look very generous.
In the 2:05, there are 2 from my alert list in DREAM FUNCTION ( a sister to Captain Chris) and RAYA STAR. This is a tough race for me to crack, and of the two I’d probably go for RAYA STAR, but this is a no-bet race for me.
BIG BUCKS will win the Long Distance Hurdle. Full stop.
I’m already on SARANDO in the Hennessey at 3:10, but from my alert list I reckon MUIRHEAD who won the Munster National in October, has a great eachway chance in a race that will play to his strengths, and at 25/1 with a bookie paying quarter-odds to 5-places (Bet365) he will be staying-on like a train come the final mile.
In the last race on the card, my alert list suggests PERSIAN GATES. He fell LTO when meeting Fistral Beach on 6lb worse terms than today. Unfortunately, he is apt to hit 1 or 2 fences and Newbury takes no prisoners. Another no-bet race for me.
Newbury 1:30, WYKE HILL, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Newcastle 3:30, HUMBIE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
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