The 423rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Today we have what looks to be a cracking days racing over the jumps with top-class meetings at Ascot and Haydock, plus another at Wincanton.
At Ascot, I like the look of the mares hurdle at 2:05 as the market is made by the fav Kentford Grey Lady who looked very impressive when winning LTO. Ordinarily, I would go for the fav but the fact that VIOLIN DAVIS who was 3rd that day is returning for a rematch looks interesting. This race is quite likely to be a severe test of stamina with Kaffie likely to make the pace strong thru’out. I can’t have the Irish challenger Our Girl Salley as I reckon the going will not be soft enough for her, and she’s trying 3-mile for the first time. VIOLIN DAVIS at 11/2 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power) looks a fair wager, as I’d be happy with 3/1.
The handicap hurdle at 2:35 was a race in which I was hoping to see BOBBY EWING return to the track. Look him up, his form suggests his OR139 hurdle rating is ludicrously low and I can see this horse winning a top hurdle handicap on his return. However, he misses this race and so I have to look elsewhere, and CICERON who won LTO looks the best value at 11/2. Alan King’s Smad Place looks over-rated at OR144 (I’d have him about 7lb less) and A Bridge Too Far has already been shown lacking at this step-up in trip wont help. Both Joseph Lister and Shoreacres want further than 2m3f, and I can’t really see Torpichen (also trained by Alan King) being involved off OR142, and Royal Charm is on a recovery mission in this. Going right-handed could well help Pateese show improved form, but again his mark of OR138 looks a tad high and the going is also possibly too lively for him. CICERON won LTO in a very fast time beating a well-handicapped rival into 2nd and has only been raised 7lb to OR136. Considering he won at Taunton off OR135 last February, this is well within his grasp and he should be less than 3/1 for this.
The Victor Chandler Chase revolves around Al Ferof who, if he’s as good as Paul Nicholls reckons, will win this. Last March, he won what looks to have been a very strong Supreme Novices Hurdle and if it comes to a test of speed after the final fence then he’ll take some beating. However, both Al Ferof and Finian’s Rainbow are up against half-a-dozen high class chasers and any flaws in their jumping ability at speed will be exposed. As such, I cannot have Finian’s Rainbow whose jumping has never been convincing and was fortunate to be 2nd in what looks to have been a sub-standard Arkle last March. SOMERSBY is the highest rated horse in the race by 4lbs and is game and consistent. He will either relish this drop in trip from the 3-mile of the King George (was well there till after 4-out) or he may find things happening too quickly. Wishful Thinking has never looked a natural 2-mile chaser. As for Gauvain, all his best form is usually in the autumn, and he was stuffed in this race last season. He has been made the Pricewise selection so the 8/1 has gone and he’s best-priced at 6/1 generally now. You cannot really take the chances of the other runners seriously as they are well below the standard required to win. SOMERSBY at 11/2 is worthy of a small wager and I’d be very happy if he could win, but I reckon he’ll be seen at his best in the Ryanair at the Festival. As such, I’m strongly tempted by the 100/30 on AL FEROF (William Hill).
Ascot’s card is tremendous and the 3:45 is another exciting race. I could easily name half the field as having realistic chances and with 15 going to post, so only 3 places available, it is too tight a heat; altho’ SA SUFFIT is a horse who looks well handicapped and if the going is softer than advertised he could go well. The 2-mile trip was too short for his LTO even so he was bang there at the finish, and before that he had no chance against Always Right at Kelso over 3-mile on 4th December. He may not have the class to win this but at 14/1 (so long as the going is soft) he is a solid eachway chance.
Unfortunately for Haydock who hold the Peter Marsh Chase, the going there is heavy, and I can see there being more than a few non-runners. I never like betting on heavy going so I’m giving the meeting a miss.
Wincanton has better going, and the class 3 chase at 2:10 could be an interesting opening for ALDERTUNE. Only 3 of the 13 runners are aged under 10yo, so they are all in the main well-exposed and holding no secrets from the handicapper. As such, I reckon the winner will come from one of the other 3 of ALDERTUNE, Zarrafakt and Diamond Brook. I think this 3m1f trip will be too much for Zarrafakt who is probably best at 2m6f. Diamond Brook looks one-paced at this sort of trip and he needs to show improvement. As for ALDERTUNE, he was well thought of as a hurdler by Nicholls and he really should have won more races (has come 2nd 6 times in 15 starts). His form has worked out well this season, especially his close 4th in the Southern National to Giles Cross. LTO he hated the heavy going, but he’s been well rested since then with a 7 week break, and he can improve enough to take this race at rewarding odds.
Selections:
Ascot 2:35, CICERON, 1pt win @ 11/2 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Ascot 3:10, AL FEROF, 1pt win @ 100/30 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
These are my early wagers, tho’ depending on how the ground is, there could well be an additional wagers on both SA SUFFIT (14/1 with Paddy Power, BOG) and ALDERTUNE (12/1 with Corals).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
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Showing posts with label Haydock. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Haydock. Show all posts
Saturday, 21 January 2012
Sunday, 20 November 2011
One selection, and it's an 8/1 winner!
The 384th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
How wrong was I about KAUTO STAR?
I had a small wager on Weird Al, but for most of the 2nd circuit I was cheering-on Kauto and (as I wrote on twitter) never have I wanted a wager of mine so much to lose.
KAUTO STAR was magnificent. It was nowhere near his peak performance of winning the King George in December 2009, but it was a performance that (in my opinion) would have been enough to win the Gold Cup last March. Will he be able to repeat that on Boxing Day? That is debateable as his old bones have taken a pounding in this race. I was taken with the performance of Weird Al as he looked capable of overhauling Kauto at one point before the 2nd-last fence, but his stamina limit is 3-mile. Aintree in the Spring and the “Bowl” over the Mildmay course would be the target I’d aim him for.
I gave you only one selection yesterday, and what a selection – I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romped home a clear winner at odds of 8/1 giving followers a 9.60pt profit on the day. He was given a great ride by Hadden Frost and (combined with Haydock winner Dynaste) provided further proof that trainer David Pipe is “king” of the handicaps.
Master Minded showed that when he wants to be, he is a 170+ chaser. At one point I thought Somersby would hold on to the lead, but that was a brief thought. In this sort of form, Master Minded is a clear Champion Chase contender, but he is such a good jumper of a fence these days I reckon Paul Nicholls is right to put him into the King George on Boxing Day. Long Run (last year’s King George winner) will appreciate a return to Kempton, but his jumping is not foot perfect and Master Minded may expose his limitations again – and Kauto Star will have the stamina to take advantage. What a double-act!
No selections today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
How wrong was I about KAUTO STAR?
I had a small wager on Weird Al, but for most of the 2nd circuit I was cheering-on Kauto and (as I wrote on twitter) never have I wanted a wager of mine so much to lose.
KAUTO STAR was magnificent. It was nowhere near his peak performance of winning the King George in December 2009, but it was a performance that (in my opinion) would have been enough to win the Gold Cup last March. Will he be able to repeat that on Boxing Day? That is debateable as his old bones have taken a pounding in this race. I was taken with the performance of Weird Al as he looked capable of overhauling Kauto at one point before the 2nd-last fence, but his stamina limit is 3-mile. Aintree in the Spring and the “Bowl” over the Mildmay course would be the target I’d aim him for.
I gave you only one selection yesterday, and what a selection – I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romped home a clear winner at odds of 8/1 giving followers a 9.60pt profit on the day. He was given a great ride by Hadden Frost and (combined with Haydock winner Dynaste) provided further proof that trainer David Pipe is “king” of the handicaps.
Master Minded showed that when he wants to be, he is a 170+ chaser. At one point I thought Somersby would hold on to the lead, but that was a brief thought. In this sort of form, Master Minded is a clear Champion Chase contender, but he is such a good jumper of a fence these days I reckon Paul Nicholls is right to put him into the King George on Boxing Day. Long Run (last year’s King George winner) will appreciate a return to Kempton, but his jumping is not foot perfect and Master Minded may expose his limitations again – and Kauto Star will have the stamina to take advantage. What a double-act!
No selections today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 19 November 2011
Will Kauto Star be singing the blues?
The 383rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No blog yesterday due to technical issues. My laptop charger went “pop” about a month ago (the original had lasted from June 2010, about 16 months), and I bought a replacement off the internet which went “pop” on Thursday evening. The postman has just delivered a replacement.
Let’s get straight to it, shall we?
I reckon today could be the very last time we see KAUTO STAR on a racecourse. The Racing Post may have rated his performance in the Gold Cup at 174, but I thought it was a stone below that at 159. Be honest, What A Friend in 4th that day has never been better than a 160 horse, yet RPR rated his run at 172. Come on, stop having a laugh! Throw-in the fact that Kauto is never anywhere near his best 1st-time-out in a new season and so at his most vulnerable, we could see him struggling to run above 155 today – which means he will be well beaten. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my heart speaking, not my wallet. I rate Long Run at 170 which puts him on a “par” with Diamond Harry’s Hennessey performance of last season. Given that Diamond Harry can go extremely well when fresh, I’d expect him to beat Long Run. My money tho’ is on WEIRD AL who has won 5 of his 7 chases, and looked immense when winning the Charlie Hall LTO. He’s proven race-fit, and capable of improving another 7lb+ on that performance (which I rated 165) and that would put him right in the mix and so at 7/1 he is the value. Being a strong traveller, I expect him to trade at below 4.00 (3/1) in-running so that there is an opportunity to trade-out for a risk-free wager.
At Ascot, we see another Paul Nicholls wonder horse in Master Minded going for a repeat win in the Amlin Chase. Interestingly, other that when ridden by Sam Thomas on his UK debut, the only jockey to lose a race on Master Minded has been Ruby Walsh, so I’ve no problem with him being ridden by Daryl Jacob. However, this race revolves around whether Master Minded wants to race or not. If he does, he wins – full stop. If he doesn’t, then you have to be on SOMERSBY who is a cast iron 2nd-best on ratings but is rock solid consistent performer. At 2/1, it is a toss-of-a-coin bet , but you only get “evens” for that.
My only recommended wager today tho’ is on I’SINGINGTHEBLUES in the 3:20 at Ascot. This 2m1f trip will be perfect for his, as will be the going. He showed last week that he can win off OR145 and I am surprised that he is as long as 8/1 (Ladbrokes). It is a tough race, but that should play to the strengths of I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES as he will love a strong pace.
I’d like to spend a bit more time writing the blog, but now winter is here, it has to be posted in good time to allow readers to get on if they want a wager.
If any other opportunities come up today during the afternoon, then I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) or as a comment to this blog. I will also post any selections with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).
Selection
Ascot 3:20, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG, 5th odds 1,2,3)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No blog yesterday due to technical issues. My laptop charger went “pop” about a month ago (the original had lasted from June 2010, about 16 months), and I bought a replacement off the internet which went “pop” on Thursday evening. The postman has just delivered a replacement.
Let’s get straight to it, shall we?
I reckon today could be the very last time we see KAUTO STAR on a racecourse. The Racing Post may have rated his performance in the Gold Cup at 174, but I thought it was a stone below that at 159. Be honest, What A Friend in 4th that day has never been better than a 160 horse, yet RPR rated his run at 172. Come on, stop having a laugh! Throw-in the fact that Kauto is never anywhere near his best 1st-time-out in a new season and so at his most vulnerable, we could see him struggling to run above 155 today – which means he will be well beaten. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my heart speaking, not my wallet. I rate Long Run at 170 which puts him on a “par” with Diamond Harry’s Hennessey performance of last season. Given that Diamond Harry can go extremely well when fresh, I’d expect him to beat Long Run. My money tho’ is on WEIRD AL who has won 5 of his 7 chases, and looked immense when winning the Charlie Hall LTO. He’s proven race-fit, and capable of improving another 7lb+ on that performance (which I rated 165) and that would put him right in the mix and so at 7/1 he is the value. Being a strong traveller, I expect him to trade at below 4.00 (3/1) in-running so that there is an opportunity to trade-out for a risk-free wager.
At Ascot, we see another Paul Nicholls wonder horse in Master Minded going for a repeat win in the Amlin Chase. Interestingly, other that when ridden by Sam Thomas on his UK debut, the only jockey to lose a race on Master Minded has been Ruby Walsh, so I’ve no problem with him being ridden by Daryl Jacob. However, this race revolves around whether Master Minded wants to race or not. If he does, he wins – full stop. If he doesn’t, then you have to be on SOMERSBY who is a cast iron 2nd-best on ratings but is rock solid consistent performer. At 2/1, it is a toss-of-a-coin bet , but you only get “evens” for that.
My only recommended wager today tho’ is on I’SINGINGTHEBLUES in the 3:20 at Ascot. This 2m1f trip will be perfect for his, as will be the going. He showed last week that he can win off OR145 and I am surprised that he is as long as 8/1 (Ladbrokes). It is a tough race, but that should play to the strengths of I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES as he will love a strong pace.
I’d like to spend a bit more time writing the blog, but now winter is here, it has to be posted in good time to allow readers to get on if they want a wager.
If any other opportunities come up today during the afternoon, then I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) or as a comment to this blog. I will also post any selections with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).
Selection
Ascot 3:20, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG, 5th odds 1,2,3)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 16 November 2011
The Cheltenham Gold Cup winner 2014 is...
The 381st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Sometimes, racehorses love to make fools of you and yesterday’s selection ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES has had the last of my money. I took 6.20 (5/1) on Betfair before the off, expecting him to go off like a scalded cat; instead, he ran like the last place he wanted to be was at the races. After a circuit, jockey Tom Cannon showed why he has a bright future in the saddle by conjuring up an effort from the horse and he (briefly) looked like making a race of it. I took the opportunity to lay-off my stake at 8.00 then and it was a wise decision.
We have a couple of jumps meetings at Warwick and Hexham, and again it looks uninspiring fare.
There is a class 5 chase at Warwick at 3:30, and I would not be wanting to take less than 5/2 about Ukranian Star, the current fav. He’s not shown much form when he’s carried more than 11st 3lb and he has 11:12 today. He does have the best form profile in the race, but I’d want 11/4 or longer.
The opening novice chase looks interesting at Hexham, and I think here the presence of heavy going in places on the chase course could prove influential on results. Heavy/soft going will rule out Rich Lord and Lightening Rod and I’m not sure Chester Lad will appreciate it on his chase debut, and I’ve learned he’s a non-runner.Pegasus Prince is also a chasing debutant, tho’ he should handle the going. That leaves the fav Pena Dorada and Signalman. All the form shown by the 4yo Pena Dorada has been on good going (that’s both on the flat and over the jumps). He is clearly capable as a chaser tho’. SIGNALMAN was a decent enough hurdler with form on soft/heavy before injury kept him off the track for nearly 2 years till March earlier this year. He ran well in a couple of novice chases in the Spring and he had no chance trying to out-pace Notus De La Tour at Carlisle last month, and paid for that effort finishing last of 6. He will strip fitter today and at 8/1 with William Hill, he is a fair wager.
In the 3:10, another novice h’cap chase, King Penda pulled-up LTO with a burst blood vessel. Before that, he won a race whose form has worked out well. He would be a selection for me in this race at odds of 12/1 were is not for the going, but he’s not shown any form when “soft” is in the going description.
An interesting column by one of my favourite writers Nick Mordin, in today’s Weekender. He writes how you should pay attention to, and make note of, novice hurdlers that achieve ratings of over 125 in October & November. I’ve said before and will say it again; those who rate races under-value Irish form and I reckon the form is under-valued by about 10lb. One horse he names is already on my alert list – SWORD OF DESTINY. The 5yo, born on the 1st Jan 2006, is in training with Noel Meade and if I could have an antepost wager on the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and someone would give me 100/1 then I’d have £25 on him. This horse looks immense and born to be a staying chaser, yet he’s quick enough over hurdles to win a grade 3 very easily. Put it this way, he reminds me of Denman, only he’s a grey version. With good fortune, he will prove to be a class act in the future over jumps.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the Betfair Chase looks a decent betting medium if you want to oppose Long Run – and I do. He’s been flattered by a couple of defeats of a quickly deteriorating Kauto Star, and I reckon Denman ran 15lb off his best in the Gold Cup last March. I think he’ll be not far off his best on Saturday but he’ll need to be to beat both Weird Al and Diamond Harry. With fitness on his side, I think WEIRD AL is a huge value wager at 7/1 and he looked in command from a long way out when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby LTO; and he’s my idea of the winner. I feel the going could be on the quick side for Diamond Harry, as he needs the word “soft” in the going description.
Selection:
Hexham 1:10, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win @ 8/1 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Sometimes, racehorses love to make fools of you and yesterday’s selection ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES has had the last of my money. I took 6.20 (5/1) on Betfair before the off, expecting him to go off like a scalded cat; instead, he ran like the last place he wanted to be was at the races. After a circuit, jockey Tom Cannon showed why he has a bright future in the saddle by conjuring up an effort from the horse and he (briefly) looked like making a race of it. I took the opportunity to lay-off my stake at 8.00 then and it was a wise decision.
We have a couple of jumps meetings at Warwick and Hexham, and again it looks uninspiring fare.
There is a class 5 chase at Warwick at 3:30, and I would not be wanting to take less than 5/2 about Ukranian Star, the current fav. He’s not shown much form when he’s carried more than 11st 3lb and he has 11:12 today. He does have the best form profile in the race, but I’d want 11/4 or longer.
The opening novice chase looks interesting at Hexham, and I think here the presence of heavy going in places on the chase course could prove influential on results. Heavy/soft going will rule out Rich Lord and Lightening Rod and I’m not sure Chester Lad will appreciate it on his chase debut, and I’ve learned he’s a non-runner.Pegasus Prince is also a chasing debutant, tho’ he should handle the going. That leaves the fav Pena Dorada and Signalman. All the form shown by the 4yo Pena Dorada has been on good going (that’s both on the flat and over the jumps). He is clearly capable as a chaser tho’. SIGNALMAN was a decent enough hurdler with form on soft/heavy before injury kept him off the track for nearly 2 years till March earlier this year. He ran well in a couple of novice chases in the Spring and he had no chance trying to out-pace Notus De La Tour at Carlisle last month, and paid for that effort finishing last of 6. He will strip fitter today and at 8/1 with William Hill, he is a fair wager.
In the 3:10, another novice h’cap chase, King Penda pulled-up LTO with a burst blood vessel. Before that, he won a race whose form has worked out well. He would be a selection for me in this race at odds of 12/1 were is not for the going, but he’s not shown any form when “soft” is in the going description.
An interesting column by one of my favourite writers Nick Mordin, in today’s Weekender. He writes how you should pay attention to, and make note of, novice hurdlers that achieve ratings of over 125 in October & November. I’ve said before and will say it again; those who rate races under-value Irish form and I reckon the form is under-valued by about 10lb. One horse he names is already on my alert list – SWORD OF DESTINY. The 5yo, born on the 1st Jan 2006, is in training with Noel Meade and if I could have an antepost wager on the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and someone would give me 100/1 then I’d have £25 on him. This horse looks immense and born to be a staying chaser, yet he’s quick enough over hurdles to win a grade 3 very easily. Put it this way, he reminds me of Denman, only he’s a grey version. With good fortune, he will prove to be a class act in the future over jumps.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the Betfair Chase looks a decent betting medium if you want to oppose Long Run – and I do. He’s been flattered by a couple of defeats of a quickly deteriorating Kauto Star, and I reckon Denman ran 15lb off his best in the Gold Cup last March. I think he’ll be not far off his best on Saturday but he’ll need to be to beat both Weird Al and Diamond Harry. With fitness on his side, I think WEIRD AL is a huge value wager at 7/1 and he looked in command from a long way out when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby LTO; and he’s my idea of the winner. I feel the going could be on the quick side for Diamond Harry, as he needs the word “soft” in the going description.
Selection:
Hexham 1:10, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win @ 8/1 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 14 November 2011
If only BIG BUCKS could jump a fence
The 379th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ perhaps I should have had a nibble as Viva Colonia managed to sneak 5th in the Greatwood and I wrote yesterday that he could sneak a place (Betfred and Tote were 50/1 and paid on 5 places). It was another tremendous ride from Harry Derham to win on Brampour, as he found the cleanest line round the tight home turn (far too tight a home bend in my opinion) to run out a clear winner.
Stablemate Sanctuaire took a wider line and may have finished closer but for being knocked sideways by the violent swerve from Moondice just before the final flight. The tight bend meant most in the leading group moved onto the stands rail and room there was tight (hence Brampour having the “cleanest” run to the line having stuck to the far side). I would take both Moondice and Sanctuaire from this race as they both look to be on winning ratings.
Al Ferof won the opening novice chase very easily and, in hindsight, odd-on at 5/6 was value punt as he probably should’ve started a lot shorter.
This time last year, I jumped on Gauvain after he won the same race last season, but I’ll not make the same mistake again. He’s peaked for the season.
At Fontwell, The Southern National went to Giles Cross who loves these long-distance chases having run 2nd in both the Welsh National and Eider chases last season. Once he led at 3-out, he was never going to be passed and he will probably go for the Welsh National again. Fortification was beaten by the 15lb hike for his previous win; and Rapid Increase ran out of stamina from 2-out. In 2nd was REY NACARADO, and this 6yo half-brother to Florida Pearl could be a huge improver this season.
There are two meetings today at Plumpton and Leicester.
The 4-runner novice chase at Plumpton (1:30) is a cracker of a race. The bookies are taking no chances with Notus De La Tour, but the chasing debutant KIND OF EASY a half-brother to the OR156 Glencove Marina could upset the applecart. Emma Lavelle has a very good record at Plumpton.
In the 2:30, FLAMING GEORGE has his 1st run for Paul Nicholls (his owners have moved this horse about a bit) and it should be a winning run. He jumps, and gets this trip; also he will appreciate the going.
AP McCoy rides at Leicester, and it is worth noting that of the 11 winners he’s ridden in November, only 1 has been supplied by his retaining trainer Jonjo O’Neill from 12 rides. In fact, that winner (Galaxy Rock) was the only winner – so far – O’Neill has had in November from 48 runners.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Leicester, so it looks like a blank day on the selection front.
Lastly, David Pipe is speculating that his crack novice chaser GRANDS CRUS may be entered in Saturdays Betfair Chase to meet the current holder of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Long Run. It may be a bit quick for the horse to meet such seasoned top campaigners but, if he’s good enough, then he should be in the race. In my opinion, there is not much between the top chasers Long Run, Diamond Harry, Weird Al, and even Midnight Chase is not out of it. If only BIG BUCKS could jump a fence, we’d see a shake-up in the Gold Cup market then!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ perhaps I should have had a nibble as Viva Colonia managed to sneak 5th in the Greatwood and I wrote yesterday that he could sneak a place (Betfred and Tote were 50/1 and paid on 5 places). It was another tremendous ride from Harry Derham to win on Brampour, as he found the cleanest line round the tight home turn (far too tight a home bend in my opinion) to run out a clear winner.
Stablemate Sanctuaire took a wider line and may have finished closer but for being knocked sideways by the violent swerve from Moondice just before the final flight. The tight bend meant most in the leading group moved onto the stands rail and room there was tight (hence Brampour having the “cleanest” run to the line having stuck to the far side). I would take both Moondice and Sanctuaire from this race as they both look to be on winning ratings.
Al Ferof won the opening novice chase very easily and, in hindsight, odd-on at 5/6 was value punt as he probably should’ve started a lot shorter.
This time last year, I jumped on Gauvain after he won the same race last season, but I’ll not make the same mistake again. He’s peaked for the season.
At Fontwell, The Southern National went to Giles Cross who loves these long-distance chases having run 2nd in both the Welsh National and Eider chases last season. Once he led at 3-out, he was never going to be passed and he will probably go for the Welsh National again. Fortification was beaten by the 15lb hike for his previous win; and Rapid Increase ran out of stamina from 2-out. In 2nd was REY NACARADO, and this 6yo half-brother to Florida Pearl could be a huge improver this season.
There are two meetings today at Plumpton and Leicester.
The 4-runner novice chase at Plumpton (1:30) is a cracker of a race. The bookies are taking no chances with Notus De La Tour, but the chasing debutant KIND OF EASY a half-brother to the OR156 Glencove Marina could upset the applecart. Emma Lavelle has a very good record at Plumpton.
In the 2:30, FLAMING GEORGE has his 1st run for Paul Nicholls (his owners have moved this horse about a bit) and it should be a winning run. He jumps, and gets this trip; also he will appreciate the going.
AP McCoy rides at Leicester, and it is worth noting that of the 11 winners he’s ridden in November, only 1 has been supplied by his retaining trainer Jonjo O’Neill from 12 rides. In fact, that winner (Galaxy Rock) was the only winner – so far – O’Neill has had in November from 48 runners.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Leicester, so it looks like a blank day on the selection front.
Lastly, David Pipe is speculating that his crack novice chaser GRANDS CRUS may be entered in Saturdays Betfair Chase to meet the current holder of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Long Run. It may be a bit quick for the horse to meet such seasoned top campaigners but, if he’s good enough, then he should be in the race. In my opinion, there is not much between the top chasers Long Run, Diamond Harry, Weird Al, and even Midnight Chase is not out of it. If only BIG BUCKS could jump a fence, we’d see a shake-up in the Gold Cup market then!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 26 October 2011
3 to Follow for the Jumps - from Wayward Lad
The 366th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
For the last jumps season 2010-11, I produced a “Horse Alert List” identifying 19 horses to form the basis for an alert list for the season, and the results of that alert list are still available on the blog (see adjacent page). Of the 19 selected horses on the list, 3 did not run all season (Ebadiyan died in December 2010, Kalellshan has not been seen since winning at the Galway Festival of 2010, and Going Wrong finally reappeared in a novice chase last week). The other 16 horses ran a total of 63 times between 1st November 2010 and Sunday 10th April 2011 (the day after Grand National day) winning 10 races between them. What was remarkable about the list was that after Absolute Shambles lost on 1st February, the list was losing 53.25pts to recommended stakes (if 4/1 or under, 2pts win; over 4/1, 1pt eachway); but between then and close-of-play on Grand National day, the list recovered 35.125pts at SP.
There were mistakes and lessons learned from the list; Free World (ran 4, lost 4), Pickamus (ran 6, lost 6) and Cesium (ran 4, lost 4) were clearly badly handicapped and they may be worth taking a look at this season. Others, like Mont Present (ran once) Weird Al (ran 3, won 1, injured LTO), Gentle Ranger (ran 4, 4th in Midlands National), Midnight Haze (ran 3, won 1) and Rapid Increase (ran 3, won 1) still have a lot of potential. I am a bit gutted that I did not run the list from 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011, as the summer hat-trick by ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES (won at 25/1, 8/1 and 5/2) would surely have taken the list into profit for the season!
That introduction brings me to suggesting 3 horses to follow for the 2011-12 Jumps season, and they are:-
FLAT OUT – Willie Mullins unexposed 2nd-season chaser was last seen leading the Irish “Arkle” field into the 2nd-last fence and looking fully in command. That field included REALT DUBH (subsequently 3rd in the “Arkle” at the Festival to Captain Chris) and NOBLE PRINCE (won the Jewson Novice Chase over 2m5f at the Festival). It should be remembered that FLAT OUT was 5th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in what was only his 2nd hurdle race; the 1st four finishers being Menorah, Get Me Out Of Here, Dunguib, and Oscar Whisky; that was some performance and this has turned-out to be spectacular form!
Currently, FLAT OUT is rated on a very lenient handicap chasing mark of OR146 (Realt Dubh is now on OR157, and Noble Prince is on OR160). Mullins has him entered for the Paddy Power at Cheltenham next month, for which his odds are currently at 14/1. Myself, I would not be surprised to see this horse follow a similar path to that of Exotic Dancer in 2006/07, mopping-up top handicaps en-route to a Festival appearance.
GHIZAO- Paul Nicholls targeted this horse at the “Arkle” very early in the 2010-11 season. His win at Cheltenham in November 2010 was in a fast time and he had subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris well behind him that day. They met again at Newbury, and again (despite a 10lb penalty) GHIZAO put Captain Chris in his place. They next met in the “Arkle” itself and, as a vocal supporter of GHIZAO from that November race, he was carrying one of my larger wagers. It went wrong when at the top o’the hill, GHIZAO took-off half-a-stride too soon causing his lower abdomen to land on top of the fence. That mistake knocked the stuffing from him and he coasted thereon to the finish. He was next seen at Aintree where he met Finians Rainbow (2nd in the Arkle btn 2¾ lengths) at levels and, but for colliding with that horse at the 2nd-last and coming-off worst, he may well have won. Clearly, Captain Chris was a better horse in the Spring than he was in the previous autumn, but whether he is better than GHIZAO (should the latter get a clear round) is debateable. Paul Nicholls has already pencilled in races like the Tingle Creek en-route to taking-in the Queen Mother Champion Chase next March, and I reckon he will prove worthy. Currently 20/1 for the QMCC, he’s due to start this campaign in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on 1st November and we should see an improvement in his jumping.
My final horse of the 3 took a lot of deliberation. Having already nominated an Irish horse in FLAT OUT, I wanted to include another trained on this side of the Irish Sea. The Irish, going into the 2011-12 season, have perhaps their strongest “squad” for many a year; Noble Prince, Bostons Angel, and Hurricane Fly are just the tip of an iceberg of talent. Given the furore over the revised “whip” rules that is causing consternation amongst jockeys and punters, the horses that seem best-placed to benefit are those that love to bowl-along in front running & jumping for the pleasure of it and so requiring the minimum use of the whip. As such, my final choice for my 3-to-Follow is:-
WISHFUL THINKING trained by Phil Hobbs. Altho’ he was well-held by Noble Prince in the “Jewson” at the Festival, his two subsequent victories at Aintree and Punchestown showed him to be thoroughly top-class. This was especially so the way he put Medermit to the sword at Aintree. Given his style of running, a possible excuse for his defeat at the hands of Noble Prince was that he went-off too fast on ground that was probably too quick for him. Remember, he failed to act on similar going at Aintree in April 2010 and when the word “soft” appears in the going description he has won 5 from 7 (2nd on his debut NH Flat race, and fell at the 1st fence on his novice chase debut). Altho’ he has never run beyond 2m5f, he has only lacked the stamina to win when beaten by Noble Prince, so 3-mile should be within his scope. He could just be capable of leading all-the-way (like Desert Orchid) in the King George on Boxing Day for which he is currently 14/1.
No selections for the blog today despite there being an attractive meeting at Haydock.
Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online. If anyone has any problems with it please tell me.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
For the last jumps season 2010-11, I produced a “Horse Alert List” identifying 19 horses to form the basis for an alert list for the season, and the results of that alert list are still available on the blog (see adjacent page). Of the 19 selected horses on the list, 3 did not run all season (Ebadiyan died in December 2010, Kalellshan has not been seen since winning at the Galway Festival of 2010, and Going Wrong finally reappeared in a novice chase last week). The other 16 horses ran a total of 63 times between 1st November 2010 and Sunday 10th April 2011 (the day after Grand National day) winning 10 races between them. What was remarkable about the list was that after Absolute Shambles lost on 1st February, the list was losing 53.25pts to recommended stakes (if 4/1 or under, 2pts win; over 4/1, 1pt eachway); but between then and close-of-play on Grand National day, the list recovered 35.125pts at SP.
There were mistakes and lessons learned from the list; Free World (ran 4, lost 4), Pickamus (ran 6, lost 6) and Cesium (ran 4, lost 4) were clearly badly handicapped and they may be worth taking a look at this season. Others, like Mont Present (ran once) Weird Al (ran 3, won 1, injured LTO), Gentle Ranger (ran 4, 4th in Midlands National), Midnight Haze (ran 3, won 1) and Rapid Increase (ran 3, won 1) still have a lot of potential. I am a bit gutted that I did not run the list from 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011, as the summer hat-trick by ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES (won at 25/1, 8/1 and 5/2) would surely have taken the list into profit for the season!
That introduction brings me to suggesting 3 horses to follow for the 2011-12 Jumps season, and they are:-
FLAT OUT – Willie Mullins unexposed 2nd-season chaser was last seen leading the Irish “Arkle” field into the 2nd-last fence and looking fully in command. That field included REALT DUBH (subsequently 3rd in the “Arkle” at the Festival to Captain Chris) and NOBLE PRINCE (won the Jewson Novice Chase over 2m5f at the Festival). It should be remembered that FLAT OUT was 5th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in what was only his 2nd hurdle race; the 1st four finishers being Menorah, Get Me Out Of Here, Dunguib, and Oscar Whisky; that was some performance and this has turned-out to be spectacular form!
Currently, FLAT OUT is rated on a very lenient handicap chasing mark of OR146 (Realt Dubh is now on OR157, and Noble Prince is on OR160). Mullins has him entered for the Paddy Power at Cheltenham next month, for which his odds are currently at 14/1. Myself, I would not be surprised to see this horse follow a similar path to that of Exotic Dancer in 2006/07, mopping-up top handicaps en-route to a Festival appearance.
GHIZAO- Paul Nicholls targeted this horse at the “Arkle” very early in the 2010-11 season. His win at Cheltenham in November 2010 was in a fast time and he had subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris well behind him that day. They met again at Newbury, and again (despite a 10lb penalty) GHIZAO put Captain Chris in his place. They next met in the “Arkle” itself and, as a vocal supporter of GHIZAO from that November race, he was carrying one of my larger wagers. It went wrong when at the top o’the hill, GHIZAO took-off half-a-stride too soon causing his lower abdomen to land on top of the fence. That mistake knocked the stuffing from him and he coasted thereon to the finish. He was next seen at Aintree where he met Finians Rainbow (2nd in the Arkle btn 2¾ lengths) at levels and, but for colliding with that horse at the 2nd-last and coming-off worst, he may well have won. Clearly, Captain Chris was a better horse in the Spring than he was in the previous autumn, but whether he is better than GHIZAO (should the latter get a clear round) is debateable. Paul Nicholls has already pencilled in races like the Tingle Creek en-route to taking-in the Queen Mother Champion Chase next March, and I reckon he will prove worthy. Currently 20/1 for the QMCC, he’s due to start this campaign in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on 1st November and we should see an improvement in his jumping.
My final horse of the 3 took a lot of deliberation. Having already nominated an Irish horse in FLAT OUT, I wanted to include another trained on this side of the Irish Sea. The Irish, going into the 2011-12 season, have perhaps their strongest “squad” for many a year; Noble Prince, Bostons Angel, and Hurricane Fly are just the tip of an iceberg of talent. Given the furore over the revised “whip” rules that is causing consternation amongst jockeys and punters, the horses that seem best-placed to benefit are those that love to bowl-along in front running & jumping for the pleasure of it and so requiring the minimum use of the whip. As such, my final choice for my 3-to-Follow is:-
WISHFUL THINKING trained by Phil Hobbs. Altho’ he was well-held by Noble Prince in the “Jewson” at the Festival, his two subsequent victories at Aintree and Punchestown showed him to be thoroughly top-class. This was especially so the way he put Medermit to the sword at Aintree. Given his style of running, a possible excuse for his defeat at the hands of Noble Prince was that he went-off too fast on ground that was probably too quick for him. Remember, he failed to act on similar going at Aintree in April 2010 and when the word “soft” appears in the going description he has won 5 from 7 (2nd on his debut NH Flat race, and fell at the 1st fence on his novice chase debut). Altho’ he has never run beyond 2m5f, he has only lacked the stamina to win when beaten by Noble Prince, so 3-mile should be within his scope. He could just be capable of leading all-the-way (like Desert Orchid) in the King George on Boxing Day for which he is currently 14/1.
No selections for the blog today despite there being an attractive meeting at Haydock.
Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online. If anyone has any problems with it please tell me.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Friday, 23 September 2011
There's value to be had (if you can find it!)
The 341st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
For me, this time of the year (post St Leger and pre Arc de Triomphe) is a period when I wager very sparingly on the ‘flat’. This week’s meetings have not presented me with a wagering opportunity that I have felt confident of sharing with readers of the blog and subscribers of my selections on Betting League (where you can find my advices).
As such, I’ve spent a fair amount of time on form-study of recent meetings over the ‘jumps’. This can be very productive as spotting horses that are not just fit, but well in advance of other horses, means that even tho’ they may start fav for their next outing the market still undervalues their position.
The meeting on Saturday at Haydock looks like one I’d normally avoid. The class 2, 5-furlong h’cap at 3:20 is a race I wouldn’t spend any time on but for the presence of Addictive Dream. Firstly, he’s not a selection as, even with Kieren Fallon in the saddle, he needs 6-furlongs. What I can’t work out is why the horse has only a single win to his name on turf. But, as he’s 2nd-fav, that means there is a hint of value amongst the others and the search for the winner must start with the fav CHEVETON. This horse won this race last year after winning at Ayr the previous week and he’s attempting the same again and has the going in his favour. Ladbrokes may rue offering him at odds of 6/1. I hope the 16 in it all go to post as, if they do, you may want to take a look at a rank outsider who has slipped 12lb in the ratings from this time last year, has done nearly all his winning on ground with “give” and yet has hardly ever run on it in the past two seasons – JUDGE AND JURY at 28/1 (with Boylesports, and 25/1 generally). He is in good form, but has just been running on going quicker than he likes. He could lead all the way, and is probably worth a “place-only” wager on the exchanges with a small win wager.
I can’t see anything at Chester of interest. At Ripon, a recent selection of mine (that was beaten) runs again in Fastnet Storm, who has a much better draw (4) this time. He could run a very prominent race at decent odds.
At Newmarket, the Sun Chariot Stakes should go to SAHPRESA who has won this race for the past 2 years, as she is better than these. The only doubt is the going (good-to-firm) and that brings TIMEPIECE into play. The big race of the day is the Cambridgeshire and with 35 runners going to post, this is a race that you play with gut feeling. Horses with experience of these sort of races usually come good again, and RIGGINS who was 2nd in the Royal Hunt Cup in 2010 off OR100 comes into this on OR98 having been targeted at this race all season. He’s drawn in the middle at 22, and that’s where you want to be. He may be worth an eachway play at 28/1 with Skybet who are paying to 6-places.
There is a cracking ‘jumps’ meeting at Market Rasen, and that’s where I’ll be having a wager tomorrow as I think I’ve found me a bit of value. You’ll have to go to the Betting League website to find out what I’m on (had an 8/1 winner from 2 selections last Saturday – SP was 5/1).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
For me, this time of the year (post St Leger and pre Arc de Triomphe) is a period when I wager very sparingly on the ‘flat’. This week’s meetings have not presented me with a wagering opportunity that I have felt confident of sharing with readers of the blog and subscribers of my selections on Betting League (where you can find my advices).
As such, I’ve spent a fair amount of time on form-study of recent meetings over the ‘jumps’. This can be very productive as spotting horses that are not just fit, but well in advance of other horses, means that even tho’ they may start fav for their next outing the market still undervalues their position.
The meeting on Saturday at Haydock looks like one I’d normally avoid. The class 2, 5-furlong h’cap at 3:20 is a race I wouldn’t spend any time on but for the presence of Addictive Dream. Firstly, he’s not a selection as, even with Kieren Fallon in the saddle, he needs 6-furlongs. What I can’t work out is why the horse has only a single win to his name on turf. But, as he’s 2nd-fav, that means there is a hint of value amongst the others and the search for the winner must start with the fav CHEVETON. This horse won this race last year after winning at Ayr the previous week and he’s attempting the same again and has the going in his favour. Ladbrokes may rue offering him at odds of 6/1. I hope the 16 in it all go to post as, if they do, you may want to take a look at a rank outsider who has slipped 12lb in the ratings from this time last year, has done nearly all his winning on ground with “give” and yet has hardly ever run on it in the past two seasons – JUDGE AND JURY at 28/1 (with Boylesports, and 25/1 generally). He is in good form, but has just been running on going quicker than he likes. He could lead all the way, and is probably worth a “place-only” wager on the exchanges with a small win wager.
I can’t see anything at Chester of interest. At Ripon, a recent selection of mine (that was beaten) runs again in Fastnet Storm, who has a much better draw (4) this time. He could run a very prominent race at decent odds.
At Newmarket, the Sun Chariot Stakes should go to SAHPRESA who has won this race for the past 2 years, as she is better than these. The only doubt is the going (good-to-firm) and that brings TIMEPIECE into play. The big race of the day is the Cambridgeshire and with 35 runners going to post, this is a race that you play with gut feeling. Horses with experience of these sort of races usually come good again, and RIGGINS who was 2nd in the Royal Hunt Cup in 2010 off OR100 comes into this on OR98 having been targeted at this race all season. He’s drawn in the middle at 22, and that’s where you want to be. He may be worth an eachway play at 28/1 with Skybet who are paying to 6-places.
There is a cracking ‘jumps’ meeting at Market Rasen, and that’s where I’ll be having a wager tomorrow as I think I’ve found me a bit of value. You’ll have to go to the Betting League website to find out what I’m on (had an 8/1 winner from 2 selections last Saturday – SP was 5/1).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 5 September 2011
This is the 334th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
My Saturday visit to Ascot did not bring any joy on the punting front, and neither of my selections posted on Betting League won either. Not a good day at the office!
On Betting League I posted-up the following selections, both at Haydock - RAINFALL in the opening race at 2:00pm, and FOUR NATIONS in the 5:10pm. I really thought that RAINFALL should ahead of the opposition in her race on pure ability alone, altho' there was a questionmark over her ability to stay the mile trip. I thought that her ability would carry her thru' and the odds of 4/1 (at the time) represented value as if she did stay the trip, then she'd likely win. As it happened, her odds drifted to an SP of 5/1 and tho' she came to challenge at the 2-furlong pole she did not have the stamina to carry that challenge thru' and finished 4th beaten just over 4-lengths. The race winner - King Torus - won what looked like a weak Group 2 at Goodwood as a 2yo before being sent for the Grand Criterium at Longchamps (won by Wooton Bassett) in which he was outclassed. Looking at the result, this race did not take much winning either and so if he steps up to Group company NTO, he needs to find a fair bit of improvement to be competitive. On reflection, I am happy that my wager on RAINFALL was the right one for this race.
As for FOUR NATIONS, he did everything right only to be beaten by a horse that had not looked capable of winning off either its official rating (OR87) or at the trip (mile & 6-furlongs). Where next, I'm not sure as he'll no doubt go up another couple of pounds. So long as he tries this sort of trip again NTO, and on similar going, then I will probably support him. In my opinion, he could develop into a useful 4yo, especially in races like the Old Borough Cup over the same trip and on the same card.
I was glad (in a way) that I did not have a wager on another previous selection, Zuider Zee in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock. He came 3rd at 13/2, altho' 8/1 was available for most of the morning. I'm sure this horse is destined for the sales and a future over hurdles now as he is thoroughly one-paced.
I was at Ascot, and I will not bore you with the tales of my losses there. However, I did see some snippets of good form. In the 2yo class 2 Stakes race over a mile win by Falls Of Lora, ITTASAL was given no sort of chance as her rider managed to get her boxed-in at the 2-furlong pole as the leader weakened quickly. She is a lot better than this, make note.
In the class 3 fillies h'cap, also over a mile, ELECTRA STAR produced a devastating turn-of-foot to win this and she may not go up much for this and looks very well handicapped and one to follow.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
My Saturday visit to Ascot did not bring any joy on the punting front, and neither of my selections posted on Betting League won either. Not a good day at the office!
On Betting League I posted-up the following selections, both at Haydock - RAINFALL in the opening race at 2:00pm, and FOUR NATIONS in the 5:10pm. I really thought that RAINFALL should ahead of the opposition in her race on pure ability alone, altho' there was a questionmark over her ability to stay the mile trip. I thought that her ability would carry her thru' and the odds of 4/1 (at the time) represented value as if she did stay the trip, then she'd likely win. As it happened, her odds drifted to an SP of 5/1 and tho' she came to challenge at the 2-furlong pole she did not have the stamina to carry that challenge thru' and finished 4th beaten just over 4-lengths. The race winner - King Torus - won what looked like a weak Group 2 at Goodwood as a 2yo before being sent for the Grand Criterium at Longchamps (won by Wooton Bassett) in which he was outclassed. Looking at the result, this race did not take much winning either and so if he steps up to Group company NTO, he needs to find a fair bit of improvement to be competitive. On reflection, I am happy that my wager on RAINFALL was the right one for this race.
As for FOUR NATIONS, he did everything right only to be beaten by a horse that had not looked capable of winning off either its official rating (OR87) or at the trip (mile & 6-furlongs). Where next, I'm not sure as he'll no doubt go up another couple of pounds. So long as he tries this sort of trip again NTO, and on similar going, then I will probably support him. In my opinion, he could develop into a useful 4yo, especially in races like the Old Borough Cup over the same trip and on the same card.
I was glad (in a way) that I did not have a wager on another previous selection, Zuider Zee in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock. He came 3rd at 13/2, altho' 8/1 was available for most of the morning. I'm sure this horse is destined for the sales and a future over hurdles now as he is thoroughly one-paced.
I was at Ascot, and I will not bore you with the tales of my losses there. However, I did see some snippets of good form. In the 2yo class 2 Stakes race over a mile win by Falls Of Lora, ITTASAL was given no sort of chance as her rider managed to get her boxed-in at the 2-furlong pole as the leader weakened quickly. She is a lot better than this, make note.
In the class 3 fillies h'cap, also over a mile, ELECTRA STAR produced a devastating turn-of-foot to win this and she may not go up much for this and looks very well handicapped and one to follow.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Saturday, 6 August 2011
Shergar Cup Day at Ascot
This is the 323rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
There have been no recent posts as the horseracing in the UK has been pretty poor this week. Today being a Saturday tho', it is a bit better.
Firstly, I have posted a selection on Betting League (see adjacent link) for those who are interested.
Of todays racing, at Ascot the Shergar Cup is not something that would make me want to go racing. A jockey championship on a single day at the races it not what judges (IMO) who the best jockeys are around. The rules of racing state that jockeys should always be trying so that it is the best horse that wins a race, not the best jockey. Of course, not all men are created equal, so those jockeys with more natural ability succeed the most.
There is some decent racing at the other meetings today, notably at Haydock where racegoers have an 8-race card. My attention has been drawn to the final race on the card at 5:35 which looks particularly competitive. After considering the pace in the field (Karaka Jack & Dolphin Rock) I was going to advise a punt on MARKAZZI as he looks to still have some potential to improve beyond his rating. However, the 11/2 on offer this morning has gone and at 7/2 now he is no longer a "value" wager. I considered him a 4/1 chance.
Newmarket's meeting is disappointing from a wagering point of view, and I'm happy to give it a miss. Ditto the meeting at Redcar.
Lastly; I was very disappointed to hear of the retirement to stud of CANFORD CLIFFS in the week. He was an exceptional miler, one of the best we've seen in years. Was his last run affected by his injury? We'll never know for sure, tho' the doubters of Frankel will be saying it was. Personally, I saw enough at Goodwood last week to be sure in my own mind that Frankel is the best horse over a mile that I've seen since Brigadier Gerard.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
There have been no recent posts as the horseracing in the UK has been pretty poor this week. Today being a Saturday tho', it is a bit better.
Firstly, I have posted a selection on Betting League (see adjacent link) for those who are interested.
Of todays racing, at Ascot the Shergar Cup is not something that would make me want to go racing. A jockey championship on a single day at the races it not what judges (IMO) who the best jockeys are around. The rules of racing state that jockeys should always be trying so that it is the best horse that wins a race, not the best jockey. Of course, not all men are created equal, so those jockeys with more natural ability succeed the most.
There is some decent racing at the other meetings today, notably at Haydock where racegoers have an 8-race card. My attention has been drawn to the final race on the card at 5:35 which looks particularly competitive. After considering the pace in the field (Karaka Jack & Dolphin Rock) I was going to advise a punt on MARKAZZI as he looks to still have some potential to improve beyond his rating. However, the 11/2 on offer this morning has gone and at 7/2 now he is no longer a "value" wager. I considered him a 4/1 chance.
Newmarket's meeting is disappointing from a wagering point of view, and I'm happy to give it a miss. Ditto the meeting at Redcar.
Lastly; I was very disappointed to hear of the retirement to stud of CANFORD CLIFFS in the week. He was an exceptional miler, one of the best we've seen in years. Was his last run affected by his injury? We'll never know for sure, tho' the doubters of Frankel will be saying it was. Personally, I saw enough at Goodwood last week to be sure in my own mind that Frankel is the best horse over a mile that I've seen since Brigadier Gerard.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 4 July 2011
Back from holiday and a new way forward
This is the 305th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
For those who are interested, I had a very good holiday in Ibiza and can fully recommend it as a place to go. We stayed at Cala Pada, a few kilometres north of Santa Eulalia.
I did a bit of thinking about where to take the blog while on holiday and I’m going to experiment a bit over the next few months between now and the running of the Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe on the first Sunday in October. Over this period of 3 months I will continue writing the blog and making comment on horseracing in general, but I won’t be posting any selections on the blog.
Any selections that I make will be posted on Betting League (see the adjacent link or go direct via http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) . There is no financial advantage to me in doing this as you will be able to view my selections when I post them there for free. What hopefully I will get from this is knowledge of how many people are reading the blog and then using the information that I put-up in having a wager.
As such, the blog won’t take me as much time as it has done, and I can spend more time on making selections and posting them up on Betting League. If, as I hope, my performance increases then that will be recorded as “proofed”. If you view the list of tipsters on Betting League then you will see that there are a few established tipsters on there, notably The Valueman, that I will be measuring myself against.
At the end of the day, after writing this blog for over 12 months, there has to be a reason. I went into it after having my best ever jumps season in 2009/10 during which I was able to sustain a reasonable income from my wagering. During that jumps season, I never wagered a sum greater than £40 and my total stakes averaged about £1000 a week. As such, I thought that with a bit of dedication I could make a blog pay for itself via donations, but I was wrong.
It is likely that the number of wagers that I advise via Betting League will increase in-line with how I have produced my best profits in the past, which is about 3 to 5 selections per day on 5 or 6 days during the week. Don’t forget, access to my selections via Betting League will be free (at least for the time being) and you can always find me on twitter under the tagline @wayward_lad.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
For those who are interested, I had a very good holiday in Ibiza and can fully recommend it as a place to go. We stayed at Cala Pada, a few kilometres north of Santa Eulalia.
I did a bit of thinking about where to take the blog while on holiday and I’m going to experiment a bit over the next few months between now and the running of the Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe on the first Sunday in October. Over this period of 3 months I will continue writing the blog and making comment on horseracing in general, but I won’t be posting any selections on the blog.
Any selections that I make will be posted on Betting League (see the adjacent link or go direct via http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) . There is no financial advantage to me in doing this as you will be able to view my selections when I post them there for free. What hopefully I will get from this is knowledge of how many people are reading the blog and then using the information that I put-up in having a wager.
As such, the blog won’t take me as much time as it has done, and I can spend more time on making selections and posting them up on Betting League. If, as I hope, my performance increases then that will be recorded as “proofed”. If you view the list of tipsters on Betting League then you will see that there are a few established tipsters on there, notably The Valueman, that I will be measuring myself against.
At the end of the day, after writing this blog for over 12 months, there has to be a reason. I went into it after having my best ever jumps season in 2009/10 during which I was able to sustain a reasonable income from my wagering. During that jumps season, I never wagered a sum greater than £40 and my total stakes averaged about £1000 a week. As such, I thought that with a bit of dedication I could make a blog pay for itself via donations, but I was wrong.
It is likely that the number of wagers that I advise via Betting League will increase in-line with how I have produced my best profits in the past, which is about 3 to 5 selections per day on 5 or 6 days during the week. Don’t forget, access to my selections via Betting League will be free (at least for the time being) and you can always find me on twitter under the tagline @wayward_lad.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Thursday, 9 June 2011
Be quick to take odds on FOUR NATIONS
This is the 295th edition of the daily blog page.
Pretty damn close there with KARAKA JACK last night, but the rain softened-going did for his chances. Had I known the going would turn good-to-soft then I would not have put the horse up as a selection, but there-you-go. He’s entered for another 6f race at York on Saturday, but the horse is crying-out for another go at 7f – a trip he’s won at twice from 5 starts. He stays in my Notebook, but he’ll only be a wager if he’s attempting longer than 6-furlongs now. I thought FRONTLINE PHANTOM was going to serve-it-up to eventual winner Udabaa in the opener at Haydock, but no – he was outclassed.
If you read my comment on y’days blog, the “long-distance-travellers” did well with wins for Wild Coco (for Henry Cecil at Haydock); Power Punch (for Barry Hills at Beverley); and Collect Art (for Andrew Haynes at Yarmouth). Perhaps I should have stuck with them all along.
The other Notebook runner, KITTY WELLS ran a stinker. Jockey, Kieren Fallon said she did not enjoy the slow early pace and, while I won’t dispute that, my opinion is that the rain-softened ground was a major factor as her family have not shown a propensity to handle “give” in the ground. Even so, this was an appalling effort and she’s on a watching brief for now.
Plenty of racing again, so what are the interesting LDT’s (long distance travellers).
There’s nothing at Yarmouth, and the same applies for Nottingham. No trainer has to travel very far to get to Newbury. This evening, to Haydock Mahmood Al Zarooni sends just Circus Act (for the 8:50); Roger Varian sends Nahrain (7:50); and Stuart Kittow sends May Be Some Time (8:50). Kittow has had 4 wins from just 10 runners at Haydock!
There are a couple from my notebook running today:
FOUR NATIONS in the 4:50 at Newbury;
BUZZ LAW in the 7:50 at Haydock.
Believe it or not, but Sir Michael Stoute is yet to have a winner this month, so he sends 3 to Newbury who are all short in the market, but I reckon they can all be opposed and he’ll go win-less today. In fact, I reckon that today could be a day to oppose the fav’s at Newbury, in all except one race, the 4:50. When I saw FOUR NATIONS win LTO, I remarked that it was a long time since I saw a horse more confidently ridden to win a race from such an improbably position on a track such as Goodwood. I reckon this horse could seriously be OR90+ before the end of this season. The form of that race is working out well, and this step-up to 12f will suit FOUR NATIONS. He was 11/4 with some bookmakers earlier, but is only 5/2 now with those offering best odds guaranteed. I don’t reckon you’ll get longer than 11/4 and, in my opinion; he should be under 2/1 for this race.
Nothing catches my attention at either Yarmouth or Nottingham.
At Haydock, the mile handicap at 7:50 has Buzz Law from my Notebook, but he looks out of his depth in this, and the race should go to NAHRAIN, but at “evens” he is not a wagering proposition for me. It is the 8:50 that looks most interesting from a wagering point of view as the fav is Stuart Kittow’s runner May Be Some Time. He looks well-in on a 6lb penalty but he beat very little LTO and it was no wonder he won it so well. As such, I like the look of the 2nd-fav GOOD BOY JACKSON who won what has turned-out to be a good race LTO staying-on and finding more from the front. He looks capable of staying 10f, and there is little else in this race on the formbook. Odds of 11/2 look attractive, but this may be a "reverse-forecast" opportunity.
Selections
Newbury 4:50, FOUR NATIONS, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Pretty damn close there with KARAKA JACK last night, but the rain softened-going did for his chances. Had I known the going would turn good-to-soft then I would not have put the horse up as a selection, but there-you-go. He’s entered for another 6f race at York on Saturday, but the horse is crying-out for another go at 7f – a trip he’s won at twice from 5 starts. He stays in my Notebook, but he’ll only be a wager if he’s attempting longer than 6-furlongs now. I thought FRONTLINE PHANTOM was going to serve-it-up to eventual winner Udabaa in the opener at Haydock, but no – he was outclassed.
If you read my comment on y’days blog, the “long-distance-travellers” did well with wins for Wild Coco (for Henry Cecil at Haydock); Power Punch (for Barry Hills at Beverley); and Collect Art (for Andrew Haynes at Yarmouth). Perhaps I should have stuck with them all along.
The other Notebook runner, KITTY WELLS ran a stinker. Jockey, Kieren Fallon said she did not enjoy the slow early pace and, while I won’t dispute that, my opinion is that the rain-softened ground was a major factor as her family have not shown a propensity to handle “give” in the ground. Even so, this was an appalling effort and she’s on a watching brief for now.
Plenty of racing again, so what are the interesting LDT’s (long distance travellers).
There’s nothing at Yarmouth, and the same applies for Nottingham. No trainer has to travel very far to get to Newbury. This evening, to Haydock Mahmood Al Zarooni sends just Circus Act (for the 8:50); Roger Varian sends Nahrain (7:50); and Stuart Kittow sends May Be Some Time (8:50). Kittow has had 4 wins from just 10 runners at Haydock!
There are a couple from my notebook running today:
FOUR NATIONS in the 4:50 at Newbury;
BUZZ LAW in the 7:50 at Haydock.
Believe it or not, but Sir Michael Stoute is yet to have a winner this month, so he sends 3 to Newbury who are all short in the market, but I reckon they can all be opposed and he’ll go win-less today. In fact, I reckon that today could be a day to oppose the fav’s at Newbury, in all except one race, the 4:50. When I saw FOUR NATIONS win LTO, I remarked that it was a long time since I saw a horse more confidently ridden to win a race from such an improbably position on a track such as Goodwood. I reckon this horse could seriously be OR90+ before the end of this season. The form of that race is working out well, and this step-up to 12f will suit FOUR NATIONS. He was 11/4 with some bookmakers earlier, but is only 5/2 now with those offering best odds guaranteed. I don’t reckon you’ll get longer than 11/4 and, in my opinion; he should be under 2/1 for this race.
Nothing catches my attention at either Yarmouth or Nottingham.
At Haydock, the mile handicap at 7:50 has Buzz Law from my Notebook, but he looks out of his depth in this, and the race should go to NAHRAIN, but at “evens” he is not a wagering proposition for me. It is the 8:50 that looks most interesting from a wagering point of view as the fav is Stuart Kittow’s runner May Be Some Time. He looks well-in on a 6lb penalty but he beat very little LTO and it was no wonder he won it so well. As such, I like the look of the 2nd-fav GOOD BOY JACKSON who won what has turned-out to be a good race LTO staying-on and finding more from the front. He looks capable of staying 10f, and there is little else in this race on the formbook. Odds of 11/2 look attractive, but this may be a "reverse-forecast" opportunity.
Selections
Newbury 4:50, FOUR NATIONS, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Wednesday, 8 June 2011
The search for "value" continues
This is the 294th edition of the daily blog page.
Not a good day for the blog yesterday, even tho’ it was a good day for me personally.
Before starting this blog in March 2010, I always thought it would be easy putting up selections on a blog and recording regular profits. But, after over 15-months at it and nearly 300 blog pages, I can see that the tipsters’ life is a tricky one. The problem I have is that I may have half-a-dozen selections at the start of the day that I want to have an interest with. However, I don’t want to put them all up as selections on the blog as, from my own experience, nothing puts me off following a tipster quicker than if you get a long list of selections in the morning and you’re expected to layout perhaps 10 or 12pts (which, in my case, is over £400) every day. That sort of “gambling” is similar to a stockbroker “churning” your account just to generate turnover. My aim (target) is to produce a 25%-plus Return On Investment (ROI), in other words if I stake £1,000 in a month, I want to end up with £1,250 in my account at the end of that month. It may sound like small beer but there are a lot of tipsters out there who do not even return a profit long term.
Yesterday, both my blog selections (NORTHERN FLING and GOLDTREK) lost, and lost badly. Not good for readers, and it’s probably not good either that I won personally with other wagers (not advised). They were on April Fool (SP 2/1), and Emilio Largo (SP 7/2) at Salisbury, and I had a “saver” on Boom And Bust (SP 4/1) in the race in which Northern Fling ran (see my comments on Boom And Bust on yesterdays blog). In the case of Emilio Largo, I put this on twitter (@wayward_lad) about 15 mins before the race, along with making the odds-on fav in the race – Moone’s My Name - my “lay-of-the-day”.
Should I have put up all 6 selections, or should I continue to try and advice those selections that I think represent the best value? It’s a tricky one, and one that I cannot answer. So, without a good reason to change my policy of providing what I consider are “value” wagers, I am going to stick with what I am doing.
NORTHERN FLING ran a stinker, and the writing was on the wall well before the off as he drifted on the exchanges to over 22.0, even tho’ he started with an SP of 14/1. There was clearly no confidence from his connections. GOLDTREK ran what looked like a very promising race and at one point about 3-furlongs out I thought he looked capable of perhaps winning and guaranteed to be placed. But, he emptied out very quickly when passed after the 2-furlong pole, and that was his chance gone.
There is plenty of racing today and on days like this I reckon it’s a good idea to take note of long-distance travellers (those making a trip of at least 150 miles from stable to the racetrack) and trainers single entries.
At Beverley, Barry Hills sends just Power Punch 197 miles for the maiden at 4:30, and he’s only sent 13 runners to the track since Jan-07. However, this looks competitive and I would not be confident. All bar a few local trainers have travelled over 150 miles to get to Hamilton in Scotland, so distance travelled is no filter there.
Haydock is more interesting, with single entries from a large number of trainers. The most interesting being Henry Cecil (Wild Coco), Saeed bin Suroor (Mahkama), Clive Cox (Dansili Dancer), and Roger Charlton (Keys).
Interestingly, quite a few trainers make a long journey to Yarmouth (despite being just up-the-road from Newmarket) including COLLECT ART who is bang in-form having won again yesterday.
There are a couple from my notebook running today:
KITTY WELLS in the 3:20 at Haydock over 1m 4f; and
KARAKA JACK in the 7:30 at Hamilton over 6f & 5 yards;
KITTY WELLS is a full-sister to St Leger winner Milan and must surely prove to be better than her OR85 rating today. There is a lot of confidence behind her and the only issue is whether she might find this trip a shade too short. Even so, odds of 7/4 represent a fair assessment of her chance today.
KARAKA JACK has a dodgy draw (2 of 12) but he could well be capable of overcoming it on this testing track. Jobe is the fav following his all-the-way win here LTO, but he’s up 8lb for that and of those behind him then, Frequency will be a lot closer is breaking better. Remember tho’ that KARAKA JACK has plenty of stamina along with his speed and he will be finishing very strongly of what is a virtual guaranteed good pace. He is 5/1 (available generally) but we may get a bit more than that. Even so, I’d say he was a 3/1 chance in this race that his trainer David Nicholls has won twice in the past 4 seasons.
Back at Haydock, I think FRONTLINE PHANTOM can upset the fav Udabaa in the opener, as the trip and going suit him best and he’s yet to stop improving. Henry Cecil’s WILD COCO looks unstoppable in the maiden at 3:50, but is already odds-on. The mile handicap at 4:20 looks tricky as the GF going won’t suit many in this. DOLPHIN ROCK is an old fav of mine from last season but I fear this going may be a bit quick for him even tho’ he love Haydock. Odds of 7/1 do not look fair for this reliable performer.
Selections
Hamilton 7:30, KARAKA JACK, 1pt win @ 5/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Haydock 2:20, FRONTLINE PHANTOM, ½pt win @ 9/2 (William Hill & Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked
KITTY WELLS is not value at 7/4; if you can get longer than 9/4 take it.
COLLECT ART at Yarmouth is 5/2, but I would want more than 3/1.
DOLPHIN ROCK is an eachway chance and, at 5th odds, I’d want longer than 9/1.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Not a good day for the blog yesterday, even tho’ it was a good day for me personally.
Before starting this blog in March 2010, I always thought it would be easy putting up selections on a blog and recording regular profits. But, after over 15-months at it and nearly 300 blog pages, I can see that the tipsters’ life is a tricky one. The problem I have is that I may have half-a-dozen selections at the start of the day that I want to have an interest with. However, I don’t want to put them all up as selections on the blog as, from my own experience, nothing puts me off following a tipster quicker than if you get a long list of selections in the morning and you’re expected to layout perhaps 10 or 12pts (which, in my case, is over £400) every day. That sort of “gambling” is similar to a stockbroker “churning” your account just to generate turnover. My aim (target) is to produce a 25%-plus Return On Investment (ROI), in other words if I stake £1,000 in a month, I want to end up with £1,250 in my account at the end of that month. It may sound like small beer but there are a lot of tipsters out there who do not even return a profit long term.
Yesterday, both my blog selections (NORTHERN FLING and GOLDTREK) lost, and lost badly. Not good for readers, and it’s probably not good either that I won personally with other wagers (not advised). They were on April Fool (SP 2/1), and Emilio Largo (SP 7/2) at Salisbury, and I had a “saver” on Boom And Bust (SP 4/1) in the race in which Northern Fling ran (see my comments on Boom And Bust on yesterdays blog). In the case of Emilio Largo, I put this on twitter (@wayward_lad) about 15 mins before the race, along with making the odds-on fav in the race – Moone’s My Name - my “lay-of-the-day”.
Should I have put up all 6 selections, or should I continue to try and advice those selections that I think represent the best value? It’s a tricky one, and one that I cannot answer. So, without a good reason to change my policy of providing what I consider are “value” wagers, I am going to stick with what I am doing.
NORTHERN FLING ran a stinker, and the writing was on the wall well before the off as he drifted on the exchanges to over 22.0, even tho’ he started with an SP of 14/1. There was clearly no confidence from his connections. GOLDTREK ran what looked like a very promising race and at one point about 3-furlongs out I thought he looked capable of perhaps winning and guaranteed to be placed. But, he emptied out very quickly when passed after the 2-furlong pole, and that was his chance gone.
There is plenty of racing today and on days like this I reckon it’s a good idea to take note of long-distance travellers (those making a trip of at least 150 miles from stable to the racetrack) and trainers single entries.
At Beverley, Barry Hills sends just Power Punch 197 miles for the maiden at 4:30, and he’s only sent 13 runners to the track since Jan-07. However, this looks competitive and I would not be confident. All bar a few local trainers have travelled over 150 miles to get to Hamilton in Scotland, so distance travelled is no filter there.
Haydock is more interesting, with single entries from a large number of trainers. The most interesting being Henry Cecil (Wild Coco), Saeed bin Suroor (Mahkama), Clive Cox (Dansili Dancer), and Roger Charlton (Keys).
Interestingly, quite a few trainers make a long journey to Yarmouth (despite being just up-the-road from Newmarket) including COLLECT ART who is bang in-form having won again yesterday.
There are a couple from my notebook running today:
KITTY WELLS in the 3:20 at Haydock over 1m 4f; and
KARAKA JACK in the 7:30 at Hamilton over 6f & 5 yards;
KITTY WELLS is a full-sister to St Leger winner Milan and must surely prove to be better than her OR85 rating today. There is a lot of confidence behind her and the only issue is whether she might find this trip a shade too short. Even so, odds of 7/4 represent a fair assessment of her chance today.
KARAKA JACK has a dodgy draw (2 of 12) but he could well be capable of overcoming it on this testing track. Jobe is the fav following his all-the-way win here LTO, but he’s up 8lb for that and of those behind him then, Frequency will be a lot closer is breaking better. Remember tho’ that KARAKA JACK has plenty of stamina along with his speed and he will be finishing very strongly of what is a virtual guaranteed good pace. He is 5/1 (available generally) but we may get a bit more than that. Even so, I’d say he was a 3/1 chance in this race that his trainer David Nicholls has won twice in the past 4 seasons.
Back at Haydock, I think FRONTLINE PHANTOM can upset the fav Udabaa in the opener, as the trip and going suit him best and he’s yet to stop improving. Henry Cecil’s WILD COCO looks unstoppable in the maiden at 3:50, but is already odds-on. The mile handicap at 4:20 looks tricky as the GF going won’t suit many in this. DOLPHIN ROCK is an old fav of mine from last season but I fear this going may be a bit quick for him even tho’ he love Haydock. Odds of 7/1 do not look fair for this reliable performer.
Selections
Hamilton 7:30, KARAKA JACK, 1pt win @ 5/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Haydock 2:20, FRONTLINE PHANTOM, ½pt win @ 9/2 (William Hill & Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked
KITTY WELLS is not value at 7/4; if you can get longer than 9/4 take it.
COLLECT ART at Yarmouth is 5/2, but I would want more than 3/1.
DOLPHIN ROCK is an eachway chance and, at 5th odds, I’d want longer than 9/1.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Friday, 27 May 2011
An AUDACIOUS move
This is the 289th edition of the daily blog page.
No selections yesterday, but what a narrative!
At Newcastle I focused on the 6:55 and just 2 horses; DUBAI DYNAMO and XILERATOR – and they finished 1st and 2nd. Of XILERATOR, I wrote: “His close 2nd over 7-furlongs at Newbury last September showed he had potential and on OR84 he looks well treated. At odds of 10/1, he looks the value wager (eachway)”. Well, he WON at 14/1. Actually, that’s not a fair description, he annihilated the opposition winning by 5-lengths.
At Brighton, the narrative also highlighted 5/2 winner JACK’S REVENGE (trainer George Baker’s only runner of the day), altho’ he was helped by the late withdrawal of the fav Final Liberation at the stalls. At Folkestone, I advised leaving Sir Michaels Stoute’s only runner there – Adone – alone; and he was indeed 3rd at 11/8 (a good lay opportunity).
As for my blog selection AKMAL, he was beaten by the weather which turned the going to good-to-soft. I expected some showers, but I did not anticipate major thunderstorms! Had I known the going would change the way it did, then there was only one horse to be on, and that was the winner Blue Bajan as he was the only one in the field who ran best with “give”. As such, odds of 4/1 on him were excellent. For the final race at Sandown, I did write there would be plenty of pace on, and Sandown is perfect for a bold front-runner – the race was won by top-weight D’unno who made all. Note that the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes earlier on the card was very nearly nicked by a front-running performance by Poet, who was only caught by the superlative WORKFORCE (Derby and Arc winner, 2010) in the final 100 yards, with the rest well beaten (11 lengths back to the 3rd).
Before continuing, there will be a blog for this Saturday, and on Sunday I will publish a complete list of the Flat Racing Notebook (as otherwise there is no permanent record on the blog). After that, regular blog pages will not be published until Monday 4th July. Next week is Whitsun half-term, so I am in Cornwall visiting my 8yo son. After that, I have a couple of week’s revision for some professional exams on 20th June. Then, its 2-weeks in Ibiza for some R&R. During this period I will continue updating the Notebook of well-handicapped horses, so do not desert the blog. Please continue to visit, especially on a Thursday and Friday (except when I am in Ibiza).
Again, plenty of racing today on the Flat, with meetings at Brighton, Newmarket and Newcastle this afternoon, and meetings at Haydock and Pontefract this evening. On days like today, I reckon your best-off focusing on what trainers are doing. For instance, yesterday Gary Moore who went into the day with a 44% strike rate of placed horses in the past 14-days had just one horse out – and that was RED YARN who was 2nd at Folkestone at 18/1 btn just a head!
Nothing jumps out at Brighton or Newcastle.
At Newmarket, there are a couple that need closer inspection. Sir Michael Stoute has just one runner out today, and it’s the Queen’s filly AUDACIOUS in the 4:40. This 3yo handicap is usually hotly contested (previous winners include Bronze Cannon and Monterosso) and this year is no exception. Cumani sends Danadana, but I reckon this one (who’s dam is related to Lost Soldier Three) will want 12f+ and will be tapped for speed. What gets me is that Mark Johnston’s Malthouse who looked such an impressive winner at Sandown last week, comes here on a 6lb penalty but is still 2lb below his revised rating for that win - and yet is 9/1. This is a tricky race to fathom, but at the current odds MALTHOUSE is the value being race-fit (ran 6-days ago), 2lb well-in on OR, and he looks progressive. But, as Stoute has only AUDACIOUS running and he’s got his stable in tip-top form; and 4/1 looks too big.
Before that at 4:05, we see Reg Hollinsheads only runner today FLOWING CAPE. This horse needs 7-furlongs and GF going, and he’s got it today. He’s also got the best jockey going on-board in Ryan Moore. This is a 17-runner race, and FLOWING CAPE is worth an eachway interest at 10/1 (Tote).
Haydock’s evening meeting looks disappointing, so I’ll pass that over.
I like Pontefract, but the racing there is uninspiring.
Selections:
We dropped ½pt yesterday, somewhat needlessly, and so I am going for one I’ve been waiting to get his perfect conditions – FLOWING CAPE. I am also taking the odds on AUDACIOUS primarily as it is Stoute’s only runner today and he would not send a “duffer” to contest such a competitive race.
Newmarket 4:05, FLOWING CAPE, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (Tote, ¼ odds, 4 places)
Newmarket 4:40, AUDACIOUS, ½pt win @ 4/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections yesterday, but what a narrative!
At Newcastle I focused on the 6:55 and just 2 horses; DUBAI DYNAMO and XILERATOR – and they finished 1st and 2nd. Of XILERATOR, I wrote: “His close 2nd over 7-furlongs at Newbury last September showed he had potential and on OR84 he looks well treated. At odds of 10/1, he looks the value wager (eachway)”. Well, he WON at 14/1. Actually, that’s not a fair description, he annihilated the opposition winning by 5-lengths.
At Brighton, the narrative also highlighted 5/2 winner JACK’S REVENGE (trainer George Baker’s only runner of the day), altho’ he was helped by the late withdrawal of the fav Final Liberation at the stalls. At Folkestone, I advised leaving Sir Michaels Stoute’s only runner there – Adone – alone; and he was indeed 3rd at 11/8 (a good lay opportunity).
As for my blog selection AKMAL, he was beaten by the weather which turned the going to good-to-soft. I expected some showers, but I did not anticipate major thunderstorms! Had I known the going would change the way it did, then there was only one horse to be on, and that was the winner Blue Bajan as he was the only one in the field who ran best with “give”. As such, odds of 4/1 on him were excellent. For the final race at Sandown, I did write there would be plenty of pace on, and Sandown is perfect for a bold front-runner – the race was won by top-weight D’unno who made all. Note that the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes earlier on the card was very nearly nicked by a front-running performance by Poet, who was only caught by the superlative WORKFORCE (Derby and Arc winner, 2010) in the final 100 yards, with the rest well beaten (11 lengths back to the 3rd).
Before continuing, there will be a blog for this Saturday, and on Sunday I will publish a complete list of the Flat Racing Notebook (as otherwise there is no permanent record on the blog). After that, regular blog pages will not be published until Monday 4th July. Next week is Whitsun half-term, so I am in Cornwall visiting my 8yo son. After that, I have a couple of week’s revision for some professional exams on 20th June. Then, its 2-weeks in Ibiza for some R&R. During this period I will continue updating the Notebook of well-handicapped horses, so do not desert the blog. Please continue to visit, especially on a Thursday and Friday (except when I am in Ibiza).
Again, plenty of racing today on the Flat, with meetings at Brighton, Newmarket and Newcastle this afternoon, and meetings at Haydock and Pontefract this evening. On days like today, I reckon your best-off focusing on what trainers are doing. For instance, yesterday Gary Moore who went into the day with a 44% strike rate of placed horses in the past 14-days had just one horse out – and that was RED YARN who was 2nd at Folkestone at 18/1 btn just a head!
Nothing jumps out at Brighton or Newcastle.
At Newmarket, there are a couple that need closer inspection. Sir Michael Stoute has just one runner out today, and it’s the Queen’s filly AUDACIOUS in the 4:40. This 3yo handicap is usually hotly contested (previous winners include Bronze Cannon and Monterosso) and this year is no exception. Cumani sends Danadana, but I reckon this one (who’s dam is related to Lost Soldier Three) will want 12f+ and will be tapped for speed. What gets me is that Mark Johnston’s Malthouse who looked such an impressive winner at Sandown last week, comes here on a 6lb penalty but is still 2lb below his revised rating for that win - and yet is 9/1. This is a tricky race to fathom, but at the current odds MALTHOUSE is the value being race-fit (ran 6-days ago), 2lb well-in on OR, and he looks progressive. But, as Stoute has only AUDACIOUS running and he’s got his stable in tip-top form; and 4/1 looks too big.
Before that at 4:05, we see Reg Hollinsheads only runner today FLOWING CAPE. This horse needs 7-furlongs and GF going, and he’s got it today. He’s also got the best jockey going on-board in Ryan Moore. This is a 17-runner race, and FLOWING CAPE is worth an eachway interest at 10/1 (Tote).
Haydock’s evening meeting looks disappointing, so I’ll pass that over.
I like Pontefract, but the racing there is uninspiring.
Selections:
We dropped ½pt yesterday, somewhat needlessly, and so I am going for one I’ve been waiting to get his perfect conditions – FLOWING CAPE. I am also taking the odds on AUDACIOUS primarily as it is Stoute’s only runner today and he would not send a “duffer” to contest such a competitive race.
Newmarket 4:05, FLOWING CAPE, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (Tote, ¼ odds, 4 places)
Newmarket 4:40, AUDACIOUS, ½pt win @ 4/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Saturday, 21 May 2011
Can we cope with an OVERDOSE?
This is the 283rd edition of the daily blog page (made a bit of a booboo and didn’t add up the pages adjacent correctly).
After a week of (on the whole) boring run-of-the-mill racing, we have today a programme of racing around the country that is filled with competitive and compelling races.
But, before that, yesterday’s selection TAURUS TWINS was heavily supported thru’out the day from 12/1 in the morning to opening on-course at 6’s, before starting with an SP of 5/1. Had I known he would shorten so much, I would have advised “trading-out” your stake at 6/1 (7.00 on the exchanges) as then you would have had a completely no-risk wager. Unfortunately, he met a rival who only knows one-way of running – flat out from the start, and Bronze Beau got the lead and held it to the finish. I would not expect Bronze Beau to follow-up, and believe that if TAURUS TWINS had come out of the stalls a bit quicker and raced alongside him then TAURUS TWINS would have won as Bronze Beau does not enjoy fighting for the lead.
Onto today and where do I start?
Meetings are at Chester, Goodwood, Haydock and York this afternoon, with Newbury and Lingfield this evening.
From my Flat Racing Notebook we have:-
WINTER’S NIGHT in the 2:30 at Haydock
NORVILLE in the 4:00 at Chester
KARAKA JACK in the 4:05 at Haydock
NORVILLE is racing over 7-furlongs at Chester and he only just failed over C&D LTO. His form is holding up well (Swiss Cross behind in 3rd that day, won NTO) and he will run his heart out today. But he could not win off OR90 LTO and off OR95 today he will have a tough task. Even so, current odds of 7/1 look fair given he has stall 5 and should be up with the pace thru’out on a track that suits his style of running. The rest of the Chester card looks great, open and competitive handicaps and anyone going racing will have tremendous entertainment today.
Haydock is the day’s feature meeting and the WINTER’S NIGHT runs in the 2:30 which is a very competitive h’cap over a mile. I think the likely fav Polar Kite is an improving sort, but who will probably want further than a mile, like his full-brother Icemancometh. But, Polar Kite will ensure a good pace and that is what WINTER’S NIGHT needs. It is a step-up in trip for her, but she looks like she needs a mile and she was only raised 3lb for her win LTO. Drawn 13 isn’t the best of draws, but at 10/1 she looks fair value and with 4-places (17 runners) she is a decent eachway wager.
If OVERDOSE is the real-deal, then he’ll win the Temple Stakes at 3:00, and at 7/2 (Betfred) it’s worth taking the chance that he is. Finally, KARAKA JACK drops down to 6-furlongs today for the 4:05 at Haydock, and I think that’s the wrong move – he needs 7-furlongs.
At York, I would have been on Humidor for the 5f sprint at 3:40, but he’s a non-runner. As such, I would recommend supporting Ancient Cross in this as he was a close 2nd to Humidor in October last year and that form is working out well. He won over C&D at the Dante meeting last week and he will go close – but betting on 19-runner 5-furlong races is perilous at best.
At Goodwood, previous blog selection HARLESTONE TIMES runs in the 2:45, a class 2 112-furlong h’cap. Of those who finished behind him at Epsom, Rock A Doodle Doo and Zigato have since won, and I thought HARLESTONE TIMES was unlucky in that race and tho’ he may not have won (the winner looked very good) he may have pushed it close. He was raised 6lb for that run, but he’s won at Goodwood before, and is clearly a well-balanced horse who can cope with the undulations being a winner at Brighton, and also his good run at Epsom. Odds of 5/2 are not great, but it is hard to see one in this race being better today.
The blog is in need of a winner and a good winner too. So, here are today’s selections:-
Selection:
Haydock 2:30, WINTER’S NIGHT, ½pt eachway @ 10/1
(Bet365 & William Hill, best odds guaranteed – 4 places, ¼ odds a place)
Goodwood 2:45, HARLESTONE TIMES, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Chester 4:00, NORVILLE, ½pt eachway @ 7/1 (Bet365 & Betfred, best odds guaranteed – 3 places, 5th odds a place)
Total = 3pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
After a week of (on the whole) boring run-of-the-mill racing, we have today a programme of racing around the country that is filled with competitive and compelling races.
But, before that, yesterday’s selection TAURUS TWINS was heavily supported thru’out the day from 12/1 in the morning to opening on-course at 6’s, before starting with an SP of 5/1. Had I known he would shorten so much, I would have advised “trading-out” your stake at 6/1 (7.00 on the exchanges) as then you would have had a completely no-risk wager. Unfortunately, he met a rival who only knows one-way of running – flat out from the start, and Bronze Beau got the lead and held it to the finish. I would not expect Bronze Beau to follow-up, and believe that if TAURUS TWINS had come out of the stalls a bit quicker and raced alongside him then TAURUS TWINS would have won as Bronze Beau does not enjoy fighting for the lead.
Onto today and where do I start?
Meetings are at Chester, Goodwood, Haydock and York this afternoon, with Newbury and Lingfield this evening.
From my Flat Racing Notebook we have:-
WINTER’S NIGHT in the 2:30 at Haydock
NORVILLE in the 4:00 at Chester
KARAKA JACK in the 4:05 at Haydock
NORVILLE is racing over 7-furlongs at Chester and he only just failed over C&D LTO. His form is holding up well (Swiss Cross behind in 3rd that day, won NTO) and he will run his heart out today. But he could not win off OR90 LTO and off OR95 today he will have a tough task. Even so, current odds of 7/1 look fair given he has stall 5 and should be up with the pace thru’out on a track that suits his style of running. The rest of the Chester card looks great, open and competitive handicaps and anyone going racing will have tremendous entertainment today.
Haydock is the day’s feature meeting and the WINTER’S NIGHT runs in the 2:30 which is a very competitive h’cap over a mile. I think the likely fav Polar Kite is an improving sort, but who will probably want further than a mile, like his full-brother Icemancometh. But, Polar Kite will ensure a good pace and that is what WINTER’S NIGHT needs. It is a step-up in trip for her, but she looks like she needs a mile and she was only raised 3lb for her win LTO. Drawn 13 isn’t the best of draws, but at 10/1 she looks fair value and with 4-places (17 runners) she is a decent eachway wager.
If OVERDOSE is the real-deal, then he’ll win the Temple Stakes at 3:00, and at 7/2 (Betfred) it’s worth taking the chance that he is. Finally, KARAKA JACK drops down to 6-furlongs today for the 4:05 at Haydock, and I think that’s the wrong move – he needs 7-furlongs.
At York, I would have been on Humidor for the 5f sprint at 3:40, but he’s a non-runner. As such, I would recommend supporting Ancient Cross in this as he was a close 2nd to Humidor in October last year and that form is working out well. He won over C&D at the Dante meeting last week and he will go close – but betting on 19-runner 5-furlong races is perilous at best.
At Goodwood, previous blog selection HARLESTONE TIMES runs in the 2:45, a class 2 112-furlong h’cap. Of those who finished behind him at Epsom, Rock A Doodle Doo and Zigato have since won, and I thought HARLESTONE TIMES was unlucky in that race and tho’ he may not have won (the winner looked very good) he may have pushed it close. He was raised 6lb for that run, but he’s won at Goodwood before, and is clearly a well-balanced horse who can cope with the undulations being a winner at Brighton, and also his good run at Epsom. Odds of 5/2 are not great, but it is hard to see one in this race being better today.
The blog is in need of a winner and a good winner too. So, here are today’s selections:-
Selection:
Haydock 2:30, WINTER’S NIGHT, ½pt eachway @ 10/1
(Bet365 & William Hill, best odds guaranteed – 4 places, ¼ odds a place)
Goodwood 2:45, HARLESTONE TIMES, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Chester 4:00, NORVILLE, ½pt eachway @ 7/1 (Bet365 & Betfred, best odds guaranteed – 3 places, 5th odds a place)
Total = 3pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Thursday, 19 May 2011
Competitve h'cap at Haydock today
This is the 280th edition of the daily blog page.
There was just one selection for the blog yesterday – PICTURE EDITOR at Goodwood. I was right in deducing that the market leaders for this 11-furlong race would struggle to stay the trip, but the horse I selected to take advantage was the wrong one. The winner, Masked Marvel, improved considerably for his seasonal debut at Sandown a couple of weeks back, and this Gosden trained German-bred may be the sort that develops into a St Leger candidate during the season as Gosden took Lucarno on a similar path to St Leger glory in 2007. PICTURE EDITOR did pull a fair bit early-on (I often wonder why jockeys don’t allow horses just to run-on and settle down into a rhythm as they lose so much energy when being restrained) but he didn’t pick-up when asked, even tho’ he stayed the trip. It was remarked that he was a bit small (compared to the others) and it’s likely we’ve seen the best of him.
The other horse mentioned on the blog – BEATRICE AURORE – looked impressive when winning at an SP of 2/1, and she’s improving hand-over-fist. Quotes of 20/1 (available generally) are not unreasonable for the Oaks in a couple of weeks time. She has a good cruising speed, pace at the business end and, with a couple of wins at Goodwood, is clearly balanced and likely to be capable of dealing with coming down Tattenham Hill at speed.
There are some good Flat racing venues today (Sandown, Haydock, Salisbury) but the racing planned is ordinary. As such, I’m only looking at the one race, and that’s the class 3 h’cap over a mile at Haydock at 4:00pm.
Statistically, this is an interesting race. Only 1 winner in past 10 years has carried more than 9st3lb to victory (Beauchamp Pilot in 1993, and he went on to win the Cambridgeshire later in the year off a 15lb higher rating!). The race usually goes to a well-fancied horse (only 2 winners at longer odds than 10/1) but those at the head of the market this year look vulnerable.
She’s A Character won for the 1st time LTO since her 2yo debut and she’s had plenty of opportunities to win off OR80 (today’s rating) and failed (1 win from 9 starts at OR80 or less).
Tartan Trip won a weak class 4 h’cap over a mile on GF last summer (the next 3 home have since recorded just 1 win from 35 subsequent starts), and I reckon he’ll struggle today.
Colour Scheme has not improved since his impressive 3yo debut, and I feel he has yet to find his best trip.
Charlie Cool is best at around a mile (0 from 18 at 9f+; 5 wins from 24 over 8f to 9f). He won the race he contested LTO when he ran in it last year – but that win was off a 11lb lower rating. He’s in top form and this is his time of year and he has a touch of class (3rd in the Wolferton in 2007).
Cheers For Thea is due to go up 3lb for her 2nd LTO, but I feel she is best at under a mile (and she has no 5lb claimer riding today).
Our Joe Mack needs going softer than good.
Hacienda ran some good races last season on GF going, and has run respectably this season on going slower than he prefers. Another front-runner who will ensure it’s a stamina test today.
Satwa Laird has only won once from 9 starts at around a mile and I feel he isn’t proven to stay.
Douze Points, with just 1 win from 27 starts – no thanks.
South Cape looks to be on a tough rating at OR89.
Venutius ran a cracker last July at Newmarket over a mile when just beaten (and raised 5lb to OR92 for the effort), and off the same mark today (OR87) if he’s fit to do himself justice this front-runner will do well. If he needs the run, mark him as one to watch. Graham Gibbons rides and he is an under-estimated jockey.
High Resolution is best at Hamilton.
Layla’s Hero is not proven beyond 6-furlongs.
Celtic Change is another horse who – if fit – will do well here, but would prefer going to be quicker.
Marjury Daw will likely find this trip too short and the going too slow.
And that leaves just Sam Sharpe. He has his first run for Ian Williams today (was with Henry Cecil) and this £160,000 yearling has only had 10 starts to date, only seeing the track twice as a 4yo last season. He ran well on his seasonal debut last year to suggest he could figure in today’s race off a mark of OR82.
Do I have a selection? As I write this, I’m not sure. Why? Well, nothing jumps out of the page at me, but with the pace of the race almost certain to be hot with front-runners like She’s A Character, Hacienda, Venutius, Celtic Change and Sam Sharpe, it could set the race up for a finisher. With 16 going to post, there are 4 places on offer, as such HACIENDA at 12/1 looks good to be in the 1st-4 home, and I do like the potential of VENUTIUS at 16/1. Those likely to come with a run and finish in the places are Charlie Cool and Cheers For Thea, and of that pair I prefer CHARLIE COOL at 9/1 (available generally) who races today at his best trip and we know the horse is in form and that he holds his form. One I am wary of is Meehan’s Colour Scheme, as he could be the sort who comes good today - and he does meet the "profile" of the race(4yo, carrying under 9st3lb, unplaced LTO).
Overall, no selection today as the one horse I want to have a wager on – CHARLIE COOL – was available at 12/1 early doors and I wish I’d taken that.
Thanks for the comments on yesterday’s blog , and if anyone else wants to provide feedback, please do. As I said, I need some feedback as I’m coming to a busy period personally with exams, holidays and what-not (I’d much rather be in the garden than behind a computer on a sunny day) and if there’s little response to the content then I may as well throttle back and wait for the return of the jumps season in October.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
There was just one selection for the blog yesterday – PICTURE EDITOR at Goodwood. I was right in deducing that the market leaders for this 11-furlong race would struggle to stay the trip, but the horse I selected to take advantage was the wrong one. The winner, Masked Marvel, improved considerably for his seasonal debut at Sandown a couple of weeks back, and this Gosden trained German-bred may be the sort that develops into a St Leger candidate during the season as Gosden took Lucarno on a similar path to St Leger glory in 2007. PICTURE EDITOR did pull a fair bit early-on (I often wonder why jockeys don’t allow horses just to run-on and settle down into a rhythm as they lose so much energy when being restrained) but he didn’t pick-up when asked, even tho’ he stayed the trip. It was remarked that he was a bit small (compared to the others) and it’s likely we’ve seen the best of him.
The other horse mentioned on the blog – BEATRICE AURORE – looked impressive when winning at an SP of 2/1, and she’s improving hand-over-fist. Quotes of 20/1 (available generally) are not unreasonable for the Oaks in a couple of weeks time. She has a good cruising speed, pace at the business end and, with a couple of wins at Goodwood, is clearly balanced and likely to be capable of dealing with coming down Tattenham Hill at speed.
There are some good Flat racing venues today (Sandown, Haydock, Salisbury) but the racing planned is ordinary. As such, I’m only looking at the one race, and that’s the class 3 h’cap over a mile at Haydock at 4:00pm.
Statistically, this is an interesting race. Only 1 winner in past 10 years has carried more than 9st3lb to victory (Beauchamp Pilot in 1993, and he went on to win the Cambridgeshire later in the year off a 15lb higher rating!). The race usually goes to a well-fancied horse (only 2 winners at longer odds than 10/1) but those at the head of the market this year look vulnerable.
She’s A Character won for the 1st time LTO since her 2yo debut and she’s had plenty of opportunities to win off OR80 (today’s rating) and failed (1 win from 9 starts at OR80 or less).
Tartan Trip won a weak class 4 h’cap over a mile on GF last summer (the next 3 home have since recorded just 1 win from 35 subsequent starts), and I reckon he’ll struggle today.
Colour Scheme has not improved since his impressive 3yo debut, and I feel he has yet to find his best trip.
Charlie Cool is best at around a mile (0 from 18 at 9f+; 5 wins from 24 over 8f to 9f). He won the race he contested LTO when he ran in it last year – but that win was off a 11lb lower rating. He’s in top form and this is his time of year and he has a touch of class (3rd in the Wolferton in 2007).
Cheers For Thea is due to go up 3lb for her 2nd LTO, but I feel she is best at under a mile (and she has no 5lb claimer riding today).
Our Joe Mack needs going softer than good.
Hacienda ran some good races last season on GF going, and has run respectably this season on going slower than he prefers. Another front-runner who will ensure it’s a stamina test today.
Satwa Laird has only won once from 9 starts at around a mile and I feel he isn’t proven to stay.
Douze Points, with just 1 win from 27 starts – no thanks.
South Cape looks to be on a tough rating at OR89.
Venutius ran a cracker last July at Newmarket over a mile when just beaten (and raised 5lb to OR92 for the effort), and off the same mark today (OR87) if he’s fit to do himself justice this front-runner will do well. If he needs the run, mark him as one to watch. Graham Gibbons rides and he is an under-estimated jockey.
High Resolution is best at Hamilton.
Layla’s Hero is not proven beyond 6-furlongs.
Celtic Change is another horse who – if fit – will do well here, but would prefer going to be quicker.
Marjury Daw will likely find this trip too short and the going too slow.
And that leaves just Sam Sharpe. He has his first run for Ian Williams today (was with Henry Cecil) and this £160,000 yearling has only had 10 starts to date, only seeing the track twice as a 4yo last season. He ran well on his seasonal debut last year to suggest he could figure in today’s race off a mark of OR82.
Do I have a selection? As I write this, I’m not sure. Why? Well, nothing jumps out of the page at me, but with the pace of the race almost certain to be hot with front-runners like She’s A Character, Hacienda, Venutius, Celtic Change and Sam Sharpe, it could set the race up for a finisher. With 16 going to post, there are 4 places on offer, as such HACIENDA at 12/1 looks good to be in the 1st-4 home, and I do like the potential of VENUTIUS at 16/1. Those likely to come with a run and finish in the places are Charlie Cool and Cheers For Thea, and of that pair I prefer CHARLIE COOL at 9/1 (available generally) who races today at his best trip and we know the horse is in form and that he holds his form. One I am wary of is Meehan’s Colour Scheme, as he could be the sort who comes good today - and he does meet the "profile" of the race(4yo, carrying under 9st3lb, unplaced LTO).
Overall, no selection today as the one horse I want to have a wager on – CHARLIE COOL – was available at 12/1 early doors and I wish I’d taken that.
Thanks for the comments on yesterday’s blog , and if anyone else wants to provide feedback, please do. As I said, I need some feedback as I’m coming to a busy period personally with exams, holidays and what-not (I’d much rather be in the garden than behind a computer on a sunny day) and if there’s little response to the content then I may as well throttle back and wait for the return of the jumps season in October.
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Thanks from Wayward Lad
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