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Record of the blog selections

LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, at cumulative stakes of £5,726 - which has resulted in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 equivalent to a Return on Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 18 May 2011

Cecil to unviel Derby hopeful today?

No selections yesterday, and I’m a bit miffed with myself.
After writing the blog, I went out for the afternoon returning at about 5pm to prepare the evening meal. At about 6:15, I found myself with an hour-or-so free – so I thought I’d take another look at the evening racing and focused on the 2m4f h’cap hurdle at Towcester at 7:40. I didn’t think much of the market leaders (Not Sure Dick, and Sizing Ireland) and thought perhaps that there was value to be found elsewhere. Anyway, to cut a long story short, I ended-up selecting Speedy Directa (who won with an SP of 4/1) but passed him over as I thought I’d missed the “value” as he’d already come in from 7/1 to 11/2. He won the race in a canter! The key to him is getting him settled early in the race 3lb claimer Jimmy Derham managed to do just that. Watching the race, I couldn’t help but think that CALLISTO MOON must be near ready to resume winning ways. Having his first run for trainer Pat Murphy (who hasn’t had a winner in over 12 months on the Jumps, and over 2 years on the Flat), he was going like the winner until the 2nd-last flight (about 3-furlongs out) and probably would’ve been 3rd but for his jockey losing his irons when the horse clouted the final flight. CALLISTO MOON has won twice on Firm going at Bath on the flat over 2m1f (in fact, he won 4 times from 5 starts in the summer of 2009 on the Flat), and he was 2nd (off OR120) in a Class 2 hurdle over 2m3½f at Sandown in April 2009. The winner that day – Sangfoid – now races off 13lb higher; 3rd-placed Tasheba remains on the same mark of OR135; and that was the last time that French Opera in 6th ran over hurdles. It’s unlikely that CALLISTO MOON will have his rating of OR113 raised for last night’s run and given his liking for fast going he looks one to follow for the summer.

There are 2 Flat race meetings today at Goodwood and Lingfield, and I’m going to give the latter a miss and concentrate on Goodwood.

I noted Imperial Pippin when she won on her racecourse debut a month ago as a potential high-flyer and I note she’s entered for the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot (but not the Oaks). However, the fact that her trainer John Gosden has 2 entered in this race suggests (to me) that that confidence isn’t huge in either. As this race has been used recently as a stepping-stone to the Oaks at Epsom, John Dunlop’s entry BEATRICE AURORE who is a course winner over a mile (and holds an entry to the Oaks) looks the most likely winner, but she’s no 7/4 chance; more like 11/4.

The Cocked Hat Stakes is another interesting race, and both Badeel and Auld Burns look capable of winning at this level based on their form this season. However, today’s 1m3f trip will test their stamina and Auld Burns already looks like finding 10-furlongs his limit, and Badeel’s pedigree is filled with “milers”. That leads me to PICTURE EDITOR who was vastly unsuited by the 7-furlongs of the Greenham Stakes when used as a pacemaker for stablemate Frankel. Already a winner over 10-furlongs as a 2yo, his family is littered with staying blood (half-bro Greenwich Meantime won the Chester Cup) and it has long associations with Henry Cecil. At odds of 9/2 (Stan James and Sportingodds, fixed), he looks well-up to spec as a worthwhile wager. Remember, after winning on his 2yo debut he was thought of as the winter Derby favourite (till Frankel emerged), and had Genius Beast behind that day (and he beat Auld Burns LTO). I'd rate PICTURE EDITOR a 2/1 chance in this race.

Selection:
Goodwood 4:20, PICTURE EDITOR, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Stan James or Sportingodds)
Total = 1pt staked

Has anyone any thoughts on the blog and the Horse Alert List for the Flat racing? I need some feedback as I’m coming to a busy period personally with exams, holidays and what-not (I’d much rather be in the garden than behind a computer on a sunny day) and if there’s little response to the content then I may as well throttle back and wait for the return of the jumps season in October.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

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Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

6 comments:

  1. Hi Ian,

    I know what you mean about being busy of late and I have even been struggling to read many of the blogs in our community. You always have great posts and your analysis is in depth and well worded. Hope the number page views increase as it can be disappointing when you put so much time and effort into your blog.

    Regards,
    Jason

    ReplyDelete
  2. Cheers Jason.
    While I always enjoy the puzzle of form study, I never seem to factor in "improvement" due to fitness, going or breeding enough with Flat racing with regular consistency.
    Picture Editor was well beaten and that makes my blog selections down 6.33pts since Easter, so I'm not happy with my personal performance.
    On the plus side, I am spotting "winners" (eg BEATRICE AURORE) but not making them selections.
    I may leave the 3yo's alone for a month and concentrate on 4yo+ handicappers.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Wayward Lad, Your blog is always informative and an interesting read. You always give insight behind your selections which is great.
    If I was to give one bit of feedback I'd restructure the order of the text a little. E.g start with review of yesterday's selections, then onto today's selections, then onto others you've considered but not betting, then review other general thoughts such as trainer form and notebook horses. Not major changes but may just make the blog more attractive and help gain more feedback.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks Westhill Lad.
    I did have the blog in a similar format to the one you described for much of last year. The main reasons I abandoned it were
    (1) the blogger format does not allow better fonts to emphasise headlines etc. As such, I felt it looked like too much blurb to a new visitor who couldn't find the "meat" - that is, the selections for the day. And...
    (2) Time! I was spending perhaps 3-hours researching and writing the blog every day, sometimes more - and, other than polishing my ego, it was bringing-in nothing; and that is disheartening.
    I will re-structure the daily pages, but I've not decided yet on which direction to take.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Give Wordpress a crack Ian, you can play around and bold/underline - different colour selections as such. The obvious problem is you may lose a few readers at first.

    On the subject of your horses to follow, it's an immense amount of work you've put in there, are you following them blindly? A really terrific read though and a few have jumped out at me to make me add them to Nag Me.

    All the best, Rich.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Funnily enough Rich (lonesomepundit), the horses-to-follow list is the part I enjoy best of all. I read the Weekender results pull-out and note those that just look better than they seem, and that's something I've done for the Flat & Jumps for a few years now. I don't follow them blind (tho' in hindsight, sometimes I wish I had) but they make me look at a horse that I may otherwise have missed.
    Some horses have a "goldilocks" mentality, in that they need conditions "just right" to show their best foot - and I try to spot them as they are the ones that win at 16/1.

    ReplyDelete