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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 18 May 2011
Cecil to unviel Derby hopeful today?
After writing the blog, I went out for the afternoon returning at about 5pm to prepare the evening meal. At about 6:15, I found myself with an hour-or-so free – so I thought I’d take another look at the evening racing and focused on the 2m4f h’cap hurdle at Towcester at 7:40. I didn’t think much of the market leaders (Not Sure Dick, and Sizing Ireland) and thought perhaps that there was value to be found elsewhere. Anyway, to cut a long story short, I ended-up selecting Speedy Directa (who won with an SP of 4/1) but passed him over as I thought I’d missed the “value” as he’d already come in from 7/1 to 11/2. He won the race in a canter! The key to him is getting him settled early in the race 3lb claimer Jimmy Derham managed to do just that. Watching the race, I couldn’t help but think that CALLISTO MOON must be near ready to resume winning ways. Having his first run for trainer Pat Murphy (who hasn’t had a winner in over 12 months on the Jumps, and over 2 years on the Flat), he was going like the winner until the 2nd-last flight (about 3-furlongs out) and probably would’ve been 3rd but for his jockey losing his irons when the horse clouted the final flight. CALLISTO MOON has won twice on Firm going at Bath on the flat over 2m1f (in fact, he won 4 times from 5 starts in the summer of 2009 on the Flat), and he was 2nd (off OR120) in a Class 2 hurdle over 2m3½f at Sandown in April 2009. The winner that day – Sangfoid – now races off 13lb higher; 3rd-placed Tasheba remains on the same mark of OR135; and that was the last time that French Opera in 6th ran over hurdles. It’s unlikely that CALLISTO MOON will have his rating of OR113 raised for last night’s run and given his liking for fast going he looks one to follow for the summer.
There are 2 Flat race meetings today at Goodwood and Lingfield, and I’m going to give the latter a miss and concentrate on Goodwood.
I noted Imperial Pippin when she won on her racecourse debut a month ago as a potential high-flyer and I note she’s entered for the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot (but not the Oaks). However, the fact that her trainer John Gosden has 2 entered in this race suggests (to me) that that confidence isn’t huge in either. As this race has been used recently as a stepping-stone to the Oaks at Epsom, John Dunlop’s entry BEATRICE AURORE who is a course winner over a mile (and holds an entry to the Oaks) looks the most likely winner, but she’s no 7/4 chance; more like 11/4.
The Cocked Hat Stakes is another interesting race, and both Badeel and Auld Burns look capable of winning at this level based on their form this season. However, today’s 1m3f trip will test their stamina and Auld Burns already looks like finding 10-furlongs his limit, and Badeel’s pedigree is filled with “milers”. That leads me to PICTURE EDITOR who was vastly unsuited by the 7-furlongs of the Greenham Stakes when used as a pacemaker for stablemate Frankel. Already a winner over 10-furlongs as a 2yo, his family is littered with staying blood (half-bro Greenwich Meantime won the Chester Cup) and it has long associations with Henry Cecil. At odds of 9/2 (Stan James and Sportingodds, fixed), he looks well-up to spec as a worthwhile wager. Remember, after winning on his 2yo debut he was thought of as the winter Derby favourite (till Frankel emerged), and had Genius Beast behind that day (and he beat Auld Burns LTO). I'd rate PICTURE EDITOR a 2/1 chance in this race.
Goodwood 4:20, PICTURE EDITOR, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Stan James or Sportingodds)
Total = 1pt staked
Has anyone any thoughts on the blog and the Horse Alert List for the Flat racing? I need some feedback as I’m coming to a busy period personally with exams, holidays and what-not (I’d much rather be in the garden than behind a computer on a sunny day) and if there’s little response to the content then I may as well throttle back and wait for the return of the jumps season in October.
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