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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 4 May 2011
Will we see Dettori leap from DARLEY SUN today?
In Ireland we have the 2nd day of the Punchestown Festival the highlight being the Guinness Gold Cup. In England it’s the opening day of the Chester “May” meeting – which for many in the North West is the highlight of the entire year.
KAUTO STAR should retain enough ability to win the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown. Let’s be fair, he is not the horse he was and I rated his Gold Cup performance when 3rd to Long Run at 159 (Racing Post Ratings gave him 174). However, he’s beaten both Nacarat and Kempes in his most recent races on level terms (quite convincingly too) and Tranquil Sea is about 15lb below his best form on “good” going, as he showed in this race last season. As such, current odds of 5/4 look very good. To be honest, I said the same about SIZING EUROPE yesterday and he was beaten. In the case of SIZING EUROPE, this was his 4th race at Punchestown and he’s now never won at the track, so it would seem that he is not suited by Punchestown. But then it took a very good 2-mile chase in Big Zeb to beat him and the rest were well behind. In the Champion Novice Chase yesterday, THEGREATJOHNBROWNE was a non-runner. That left the race wide-open for Quito De La Roque and he duly obliged. From what I saw, in my opinion even had Quel Espirit finished the race (he fell when leading at the 11th of 17 fences) he would not have beat this improving chaser, who has still to perfect his jumping technique. When he does, he will take some beating.
Tomorrow, ignoring the Hunter Chase meeting at Cheltenham, we have (along with the Flat meeting at Chester) jump meetings at Kelso and Sedgefield.
At Chester we have the Chester Cup as the highlight of the meeting and as usual jump trainers are attempting to take the race with entries from David Pipe (last year’s winner Mamlook), Nicky Henderson (Sentry Duty), Gordon Elliott (Dirar), Don McCain (Overturn), and Twiston-Davies (Swingkeel). However, I like the chance of DARLEY SUN. After winning the Cesarewitch as a 3yo he was highly tried last season with runs in the Ascot Gold Cup, Doncaster Cup and Henry II Stakes. He runs off OR101 today which looks reasonable based on that his Cesarewitch winning form, and at 20/1 (Ladbrokes) he’s no back-number.
The 5-furlong Stellar Handicap (class 2) looks a cracker of a race and FALASTEEN has been handed what looks like a good draw (stall 4) given his blistering performance at Epsom LTO. Of the others, Doctor Parkes could give him most to do as he should find a good position behind the leaders from stall 7 but, with 13 starters, I cannot see anything getting into the race having been held-up.
AP O’Brien loves having winners at this meeting and anything he sends cannot be ignored, so pay close attention to his runners this week. He has brought 5 horses over from Ireland for the entire 3-day meeting and has WONDER OF WONDERS racing for him today.
No selection today for the blog, but I’m playing a patient game waiting for the right opportunity. There are some potential wagers coming up in the next couple of days, such as CAPTAIN BERTIE in the opening race at Chester tomorrow. CHAIN LIGHTENING in the Dee Stakes on Friday is one I am looking forward to seeing run as well. Saturdays cards look very inviting, especially Ascot with the Victoria Cup. If there is some benefit to taking an early price I will try and find it today.
I may well post up another blog page this evening on Flat Trainers to pay attention to over the next couple of months in response to a request from Westhill Lad.
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