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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 20 May 2011

Conditions are right for TAURUS TWINS

This is the 281st edition of the daily blog page.

Sometimes, I wish I followed my heart more than my head when wagering on the horses. That was the case with the single race that I looked at yesterday. Sam Sharpe, having his first run for Ian Williams, showed again that he can go well when fresh, and sauntered home off a mark of OR82. When I wrote the blog yesterday, he was 33/1 and it was those odds that put me off. It shouldn’t have, but it did, as I thought there was no “support” from connections. Once the blog was written and posted the support came – and Sam Sharp started at an SP of 12/1. The one horse that I thought was guaranteed a place in the race – CHARLIE COOL – ran well enough to be 4th but never looked like winning. With everything in his favour in this race, he needs respite from the handicapper but, being so consistent, it’s unlikely he’ll get that.
This handicap at Haydock is well worth noting as it appears to be targeted by trainers with progressive and under-rated 4yo’s , and the 2nd & 3rd home – Tartan Trip and Our Joe Mac – should be noted as horses to follow over the coming weeks.

There are afternoon Flat racing venues at Haydock, Bath and Yarmouth today.

At Bath, Roger Charlton (24% strikerate at Bath) sends just one runner in CAMBERLEY TWO for the 3:10 there, but the fact he’s put Chris Catlin in the saddle puts me off. In the 3:40, I made a note of FLOWING CAPE (OR79) when he was 2nd to Norville (OR78) btn just ½ a length. Norville has since won, and very nearly won again and is now rated OR95 – whereas FLOWING CAPE was raised just 4lb to OR83. Is FLOWING CAPE theoretically 12lb well-in? Personally, I’d like to see him return to 7-furlongs and today’s trip is likely to expose him. Again, Chris Catlin has the ride and perhaps I’m being too critical off him as he does seem to be riding well at the moment.

Yarmouth regularly produces a feast of racing (not!) and I am happy to pass this meeting over.

I am disappointed with the meeting at Haydock this afternoon from a wagering point of view, as it looks like a “layers” paradise to me. I’ll be looking to “place-lay” one in the opening race, probably Pandoro De Lago who, despite being a half-sister to Champion Hurdle winner Sublimity (who won a Listed race on the Flat over 10-furlongs) looks a horse who wants “give” in the going (like Sublimity) and seems to be a bit slow.

This evenings meetings at Catterick and Musselburgh are also of poor quality; tho’ I reckon Taurus Twins may run better on this drop back to 5-furlongs than odds of 12/1 suggest. Despite being drawn worst (9 of 9) for the 7:50, he’ll blast from the stalls and it’ll take a good one to catch him. Remember, he broke the course record at Windsor over 5-furlongs on GF; then, the going (good) was too slow for him NTO, and LTO the 6-furlong trip was too far. Five furlongs on quick going is what he needs and when he last ran on turf on a track like Catterick (at Pontefract on 19Oct09) he was 2nd when drawn worst of all, 12 of 12, having led most of the way.

At the moment, I have no selection for the afternoon racing, but I am going to have a small wager on TAURUS TWINS at Catterick this evening.

Selection:
Catterick 7:50, TAURUS TWINS, ½pt win @ 12/1 (Boylesports & William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Total = ½pt staked

Thanks for the comments on yesterday’s blog, and if anyone else wants to provide feedback, please do. I will be up-dating the Flat Horse Notebook page during the day, so please refer to it when you can.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

3 comments:

  1. Unlucky with Sam Sharpe mate - personally I think you should never let the odds put you off a bet if you really fancy it and think money from 'connections' is an often overplayed angle. Good luck today and keep up the excellent previews. Dave

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  2. Many thanks Dave (Formbet) for the kind words. My selection of Taurus Twins today is in response to not letting the morning odds put me off.

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  3. Taurus Twins looks to have a good chance and he has the assistance of a strong jockey who has a good record in sprint races.

    http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete