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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Friday, 27 May 2011
An AUDACIOUS move
No selections yesterday, but what a narrative!
At Newcastle I focused on the 6:55 and just 2 horses; DUBAI DYNAMO and XILERATOR – and they finished 1st and 2nd. Of XILERATOR, I wrote: “His close 2nd over 7-furlongs at Newbury last September showed he had potential and on OR84 he looks well treated. At odds of 10/1, he looks the value wager (eachway)”. Well, he WON at 14/1. Actually, that’s not a fair description, he annihilated the opposition winning by 5-lengths.
At Brighton, the narrative also highlighted 5/2 winner JACK’S REVENGE (trainer George Baker’s only runner of the day), altho’ he was helped by the late withdrawal of the fav Final Liberation at the stalls. At Folkestone, I advised leaving Sir Michaels Stoute’s only runner there – Adone – alone; and he was indeed 3rd at 11/8 (a good lay opportunity).
As for my blog selection AKMAL, he was beaten by the weather which turned the going to good-to-soft. I expected some showers, but I did not anticipate major thunderstorms! Had I known the going would change the way it did, then there was only one horse to be on, and that was the winner Blue Bajan as he was the only one in the field who ran best with “give”. As such, odds of 4/1 on him were excellent. For the final race at Sandown, I did write there would be plenty of pace on, and Sandown is perfect for a bold front-runner – the race was won by top-weight D’unno who made all. Note that the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes earlier on the card was very nearly nicked by a front-running performance by Poet, who was only caught by the superlative WORKFORCE (Derby and Arc winner, 2010) in the final 100 yards, with the rest well beaten (11 lengths back to the 3rd).
Before continuing, there will be a blog for this Saturday, and on Sunday I will publish a complete list of the Flat Racing Notebook (as otherwise there is no permanent record on the blog). After that, regular blog pages will not be published until Monday 4th July. Next week is Whitsun half-term, so I am in Cornwall visiting my 8yo son. After that, I have a couple of week’s revision for some professional exams on 20th June. Then, its 2-weeks in Ibiza for some R&R. During this period I will continue updating the Notebook of well-handicapped horses, so do not desert the blog. Please continue to visit, especially on a Thursday and Friday (except when I am in Ibiza).
Again, plenty of racing today on the Flat, with meetings at Brighton, Newmarket and Newcastle this afternoon, and meetings at Haydock and Pontefract this evening. On days like today, I reckon your best-off focusing on what trainers are doing. For instance, yesterday Gary Moore who went into the day with a 44% strike rate of placed horses in the past 14-days had just one horse out – and that was RED YARN who was 2nd at Folkestone at 18/1 btn just a head!
Nothing jumps out at Brighton or Newcastle.
At Newmarket, there are a couple that need closer inspection. Sir Michael Stoute has just one runner out today, and it’s the Queen’s filly AUDACIOUS in the 4:40. This 3yo handicap is usually hotly contested (previous winners include Bronze Cannon and Monterosso) and this year is no exception. Cumani sends Danadana, but I reckon this one (who’s dam is related to Lost Soldier Three) will want 12f+ and will be tapped for speed. What gets me is that Mark Johnston’s Malthouse who looked such an impressive winner at Sandown last week, comes here on a 6lb penalty but is still 2lb below his revised rating for that win - and yet is 9/1. This is a tricky race to fathom, but at the current odds MALTHOUSE is the value being race-fit (ran 6-days ago), 2lb well-in on OR, and he looks progressive. But, as Stoute has only AUDACIOUS running and he’s got his stable in tip-top form; and 4/1 looks too big.
Before that at 4:05, we see Reg Hollinsheads only runner today FLOWING CAPE. This horse needs 7-furlongs and GF going, and he’s got it today. He’s also got the best jockey going on-board in Ryan Moore. This is a 17-runner race, and FLOWING CAPE is worth an eachway interest at 10/1 (Tote).
Haydock’s evening meeting looks disappointing, so I’ll pass that over.
I like Pontefract, but the racing there is uninspiring.
We dropped ½pt yesterday, somewhat needlessly, and so I am going for one I’ve been waiting to get his perfect conditions – FLOWING CAPE. I am also taking the odds on AUDACIOUS primarily as it is Stoute’s only runner today and he would not send a “duffer” to contest such a competitive race.
Newmarket 4:05, FLOWING CAPE, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (Tote, ¼ odds, 4 places)
Newmarket 4:40, AUDACIOUS, ½pt win @ 4/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked
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