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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 7 May 2011
Only selection a winner y'day at 11/4
To recap, here are the selections nominated by the blog since returning from the Easter break:-
20th April, HARLESTONE TIMES, 1pt win @ 6/1; 2nd …1.00pt lost
21st April, PRINCE DES MARAIS, ½pt win @ 6/1; 3rd …0.50pts lost
21st April, DOUBLE DIZZY, ½pt win @ 11/1; unplaced …0.50pts lost
23rd April, FRENCH OPERA, ½pt win @ 100/30; WON …1.67pts profit
23rd April, CALYPSO MAGIC, ½pt win @ 13/2; unplaced …0.50pts lost
27th April, CRITICAL MOMENT, ½pt win @ 7/1; 3rd …0.50pts lost
27th April, AKMAL, 1pt win @ 9/1; 2nd …1.00pt lost
27th April, ANTIGUA SUNRISE, ½pt win @ 8/1; 3rd …0.50pts lost
30th April, CAI SHEN, 2pts win @ 4/1; 2nd …2.00pts lost
30th April, KARAKA JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1; 3rd …1.00pt lost
30th April, CAPE VALE, 1pt win @ 11/2, unplaced …1.00pt lost
6th May, GLEN’S DIAMOND, 2pts win @ 11/4; WON …5.50pts profit
Summary to date (Flat Season from Grand National day) = 1.33pts in loss
John Gosden’s Misrepresent was disappointing at Nottingham, but in the next race FRONTLINE PHANTOM won again as expected (see yesterday’s blog) but the odds were very short, the SP being 8/11. Don’t forget, I also advised on the blog not to ignore the runners sent over from Ireland by AP O’Brien for the Chester May meeting. Of the 5 he sent over, only 4 ran and they all won! If you read the blog there is a lot of information that points the way to winners, whether or not you follow up with a wager depends on your personal attitude to risk.
Onto today’s racing, and what a day in store. There are Flat race meetings in the afternoon at Ascot, Lingfield and Nottingham, plus another 2 at Thirsk and Warwick this evening; and a mixed meeting at Haydock.
At Ascot, the Victoria Cup (class 2 h’cap over 7f) is the highlight, and 29 runners go to post. It has rained overnight at Ascot, but the going is likely to remain at Good-to-Firm. From my alert list, in this race goes NASRI. There is no way I can nominate a blog selection in a 29-runner handicap, but NASRI fits the bill for this race. He comes into the race with the benefit of a run, is a 7-furlong specialist and will love the going – he also has a great draw coming out of stall 4. Hills go 9/1 the field for this race, it’s wide open, but if you’re having a wager go for a bookmaker offering 5 places such as Betfred or Paddy Power. NASRI is 20/1 with Betfred and is worthy of a small eachway wager if you want an interest.
Despite all the racing, John Gosden only sends out 3 runners today and his only representative at Ascot is the 4yo ZUIDER ZEE in the 4:35, who will only run if Gosden considers the going is suitable. I use this statement (which is printed on the racecard in the Racing Post) as a pointer to winners. It tells you that the horse will only run if the trainer thinks the horse has a better than average chance of winning. Remember what I wrote about Gosden 4yo handicappers on Thursday? ZUIDER ZEE is currently 10/1 with Boylesports and Betfred and, if he goes to post, he must be worth a wager. John Dunlop has his only runner of the day Berling in the same race, but he will need to recapture his early season form of last year to have a chance. Rock A Doodle Doo looked unlucky at Epsom LTO, but Dunlop must feel he has the measure of that one.
Next on the card is the 6f class 3 handicap for 4yo’s and older, and the Stoute runner CHIEFDOM PRINCE stands out in this. In my opinion, he is on a very lenient mark of OR87 and I reckon he showed LTO when annihilating his rivals in a fast time at Pontefract that he is a 100+ sprinter. His half-brother Rising Shadow won the “Cammidge” and was rated OR110. CHIEFDOM PRINCE was the joint-fav on his debut for the “Wood Ditton” last season and Stoute must think the horse is very useful if he’s kept him in training as a 4yo. CHIEFDOM PRINCE is 5/1 across the board. With 19 rivals in opposition and not the best of draws (3 of 20), even with plenty in hand on the weights I could only recommend a small wager at those odds. If he wins today (and, in my opinion, he should) he’ll probably go for a Group class sprint NTO, which will almost certainly be at Royal Ascot next month. The more I look at him tho', the more tempted I am to have a wager.
Ascot 4:35, ZUIDER ZEE, 1pt win @ 10/1 (Boylesports or Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Ascot 5:10, CHIEFDOM PRINCE, ½pt win @ 5/1 (Boylesports or Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked
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