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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 14 May 2011
Look for "value" today
Plenty of racing on a Saturday, with the highlight being the “Lockinge” at Newbury, with other Flat Race meetings at Newmarket, Thirsk and Doncaster.
The Lockinge is the race of the day and CANFORD CLIFFS should take a deal of beating. I followed him after his 3rd in the Two Thousand Guineas, and he did me proud winning twice at 3/1 and 11/4 in the Irish Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes respectively (enter Canford Cliffs into the blog search facility and read what I wrote on 14th May 2010).
At Thirsk, and old friend of mine FAVOURITE GIRL (check her out using the blog search facility) runs in the 4:25 and tho’ she’d prefer the going a bit quicker (3 wins on GF) she can take this race having had the benefit of a seasonal debut.
At Newmarket, in the 3:25 runs a horse that really excited me when he won LTO – PARLOUR GAMES. Well-bred (dam won Irish Oaks), he looks best produce so far of his dam Petrushka. He showed tremendous pace to pick-up long-time leader and won with a tonne in-hand. Only raised 6lb to OR85, the opposition will have a handful stopping him winning this.
At Newbury, the Class 2, 6f h’cap with 19-runners looks a nightmare to find the winner. LTO, ADDICTIVE DREAM was 2nd to Humidor, and that form looks rock solid. Humidor won that race at Goodwood in a time just 0.28 outside the 5-furlong track record, and ADDICTIVE DREAM was raised only 4lb to OR91. Having been beaten under a length, that looks fair as he could be a lot better than OR91 especially over this trip of 6-furlongs.
At Doncaster, in the 6-furlong Class 4 h’cap runs MUSIC FESTIVAL and I made a note of him when he won LTO. He ran a true race, kept on well and won in a fast time. For that, he was raised just 4lb to OR64. Interestingly, his dam won French Guineas in 2003, but after just one race for Mark Johnston under the ownership of Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, he was sold for just £3,000. The trip and going will suit him, and he’s drawn 17 of 20 which is good. Even tho’ he’s 2lb out of the handicap, he can go close here and odds of 14/1 as I write (with Bet365) look more than fair.
In the final race on the card at Doncaster (the 8:40) runs one that I made a note of after he won LTO – MAVERIK. The worry is that his trainer Michael Dods is in an awful run of poor form and he also does not have a good strikerate at this Doncaster. Throw-in the decent rivals Bosambo and Falmouth Bay, and it does not look enticing.
Do I have a selection today? I am never entirely happy having wagers in races over 5 or 6-furlongs, so I cannot recommend wagers on FAVOURITE GIRL, ADDICTIVE DREAM or MUSIC FESTIVAL even tho’ I consider both FAVOURITE GIRL and ADDICTIVE DREAM hold winning chances, and MUSIC FESTIVAL is sure to be in the mix. There is no value in CANFORD CLIFFS, and PARLOUR GAMES is only 2/1 as I write and that is not value either (I was hoping for 3/1). MAVERIK has a difficult task, so 5/1 isn’t value either (I’d be looking for 7/1).
There are no selections today.
I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen).
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